Midyear 2024: Implementing ideas for today’s market

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• We upgrade our macroeconomic outlook based on continued strength in the U.S. economy, but remain cautious on still high inflation.
• Our expectation for just two rate cuts leaves us committed to quality for the rest of the year, but pockets of opportunity suggest reasons for greater risk-taking.
• A combination of high dispersion within asset classes, rising correlation between stocks and bonds, and election uncertainty means investors may want to consider relying on the experience and expertise of active managers to identify investible opportunities in the second half of 2024.

Positioning for fundamental transformation

We believe a seismic structural transformation is underway, with potential to reshape the investment landscape. It’s being driven by a potential surge in capital spending on artificial intelligence (AI), rewiring of global supply chains and the low-carbon transition. However, the speed, size and impact of that investment remains uncertain, and comes against an unusual economic backdrop. We lean into the transformation and look to adapt as the outlook changes, with a more nimble, granular approach to identifying investment opportunities. We have evolved our quarterly investment guide to meet this challenge: Investment Directions is designed to help navigate opportunities in equities, fixed income, and portfolio diversifiers for H2 2024, with implementation ideas across index, alpha-seeking, and liquid alternative strategies. It is grounded in the themes laid out in the BlackRock Investment Institute’s Midyear Outlook. We remain bullish on AI, and see opportunity in the massive infrastructure investment – and energy – needed to fuel its expansion. On a tactical horizon, we see AI winners continuing to drive equities – despite recent tech-led volatility – yet turbulence in macro data is likely to keep dispersion and volatility high. We see scope for uncertainty to persist as markets digest European election results and we approach the final straight to November’s U.S. vote. All this makes the case for quality and selectivity in equities, we think. Major developed market (DM) central banks have begun to ease back from decade highs, but we expect rates to stay higher for longer – putting carry in focus. At the same time, we think investors may want to look beyond traditional equity and bond allocations to build diversified portfolios that have the potential to outperform as the transformation unfolds.

MACRO

Since our last outlook in March, a broad sampling of data - such as nonfarm payrolls, ISM services, retail sales, and durable goods - reflects a U.S. economy with substantial growth momentum. Downside risks to growth have diminished as consumption and corporate earnings continue to come in strong and corporate defaults remain low despite higher interest rates. While we still expect the overall pace of growth to decelerate, our view is that the probability of a severe downturn in growth is now substantially lower than it was at the start of the year.

While better-than-expected growth has been positive news for financial markets, faster growth has also meant that inflation has remained sticky. The monthly run rate of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation accelerated at the start of the year, averaging 0.37% month-over-month over the first quarter, but has shown some deceleration in recent months, particularly in energy and core goods.¹

We believe the Fed will still need a few months of softer inflation data before they are confident enough to cut rates. Though the overall pace of inflation has decelerated in recent months, there is enough in the details of the inflation data to give the Fed pause.

• First, a significant portion of the decline in headline and core PCE has been led by volatile components, suggesting that some of the disinflation could be temporary or an artifact of sampling.
• Second, housing inflation has remained sticky, with the long-expected decline in rental inflation remaining elusive. The housing index has increased 5.5% over the last year, accounting for over two-thirds of year-over-year core inflation.² Unless we see a slowdown in housing, we believe it will be hard to sustainably cool inflation.
• Last, services inflation ex housing, which historically has a strong correlation with wages, has also remained at 3.4%, well above the Fed’s level of comfort.³

We believe gently decelerating growth will allow the Fed to cut rates twice this year, first in September and then again in December. Two cuts would still leave policy rates in restrictive territory and allow gradual disinflation to proceed. We would caution against overinterpreting the median dot of the Fed’s ‘dot plot’, which now shows a median expectation of just one rate cut through the end of 2024. ⁴ The median dot is a shorthand created by market observers rather than by the FOMC and may underestimate the impact of the most influential views that often carry the day in policy decisions.

Finally, we anticipate the pace of Fed rate cuts will lag the pace of other global central banks, supporting the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Figure 1: What are the potential paths for inflation?

FIXED INCOME

Our macroeconomic outlook for slowly normalizing interest rates and gently decelerating growth implies a favorable environment for carry and modest duration extension. While we don’t believe that policy rates are likely to return to pre-pandemic levels given structurally higher inflation and the AI-fueled investment boom, we anticipate that stable growth and slowing inflation can provide an opportunity for clipping coupons in fixed income markets. However, the uncertainty around inflation – and therefore Fed policy – creates volatility that calls for careful and precise navigation.

We believe the ‘belly’ of the curve presents the best trade-off between current yield and the potential for returns from falling rates and duration. In our view, the ICE US Treasury 3-7 Year Bond Index is ideally placed to take advantage of potential outperformance in the belly of the curve.

We expect the yield curve to steepen, led by declines in rates on the short end of the curve. We remain cautious about taking exposure at the very long end of the yield curve, as we expect additional issuance and the normalization of term premium will keep longer rates elevated.

In contrast to the front end of the yield curve, the long end of the yield curve has been positively correlated with the S&P 500 for all of 2024, making it a poor diversifier.⁵ For the past year, upside and downside misses on monthly CPI inflation prints have generated a positively correlated price reaction in stocks and long-dated bonds.

Figure 2: The last 11 months of CPI surprises have seen positive stock-bond correlations

Even on the short end of the yield curve, there are opportunities beyond cash for spread income. Given the persistent inversion of the yield curve and our expectations for only a gradual reduction in policy rates, it could make sense to have some allocation to short-term rates. High quality CLOs currently offer a yield of above 6.5% with a duration of only 0.11 years.⁶ Due to their credit enhancement via overcollateralization and subordination, super senior CLO tranches achieve a credit rating of AAA. Despite their top credit rating, CLO AAA new issue spreads are still around 140 basis points above Treasuries with similar maturities, representing a potentially attractive yield pickup relative to their credit risk.⁷

Figure 3: High quality CLOs have offered yields above Treasuries with similar maturities

Corporate credit fundamentals look satisfactory, and we believe that above-potential growth could support corporate earnings and keep default rates low. While all-in yields in corporate credit look attractive, spreads have tightened meaningfully in the past 12 months. The tug of war between attractive yields and rich spreads could argue for more selectivity in allocations to corporate credit. High dispersion among credit index constituents and industries has created several relative value opportunities. Investors looking beyond broad index credit exposure may want to consider strategies that screen out the riskiest borrowers and invest in issues with the highest risk-adjusted yields. Such strategies may find pockets of value within an otherwise fully valued asset class.

We also see opportunities in EM debt, with continued deceleration in inflation and potential improvements in the global rate environment in the second half of 2024. Currently, we favor hard currency debt over local currency debt given our view that the USD will likely remain rangebound from here.

This period of elevated inflation, slowing growth, low term premium and concerns around rising deficits can be one where active management can help investors navigate the road ahead. An unconstrained approach that actively manages duration and spread risk to deliver active returns in falling, rising, and stable interest rate environments can be beneficial in certain portfolios. Similarly, strategies that seek to capture higher income in the harder to reach and more complex areas of the market can also be complementary to core fixed income holdings.

U.S. EQUITIES

Despite posting double digit returns on the year, the U.S. equity market’s 12-month forward P/E remains unchanged from its starting level, indicating that returns have been fueled by earnings durability, not multiple expansion.⁸ Narrow leadership has begun to broaden out, with 10 of the 11 S&P sectors in positive territory. At this time last year, only three sectors contributed to the market’s gains, each tech or tech adjacent. But the back half of the year holds much uncertainty, specifically around the timing of Fed cuts and the results of the U.S. election. This is an environment expected to reward selectivity and nimbleness against a backdrop of shifting narratives.

Figure 4: Market gains while valuations stay in line with historic averages

The quality factor is our preferred way to help avoid the riskiest pockets of the equity market, combining profitability and balance sheet strength with the aim of delivering positive returns even in a higher rate regime. That contrasts sharply with small and unprofitable names where restrictive monetary policy carries more bite: nearly half of the Russell 2000 constituents hold floating-rate debt, triple the total held by their large-cap counterparts.⁹

Amid big, structural changes in the economy, we see opportunity in a range of active strategies to complement quality at the core of a portfolio.

• Unconstrained strategies that are not bound by industry, sector, or geographic restrictions may be best suited to capitalize on such changes. Managers with the discretion to hold high-performing stocks over extended periods may benefit from compounding to enhance portfolio returns.
• Alternatively, systematic active management provides the tactical agility to rotate quickly amid changing themes and equity leadership, with the potential to capture near term trends and dislocations. For example, when it comes time to lean into unloved portions of the market, a quantitative, tactical framework leveraging traditional and alternative data sources may be better suited to identify inflection points than standard asset allocation strategies.

Active management also allows investor portfolio composition to shift without the need to rebalance, and in a potentially tax efficient ETF wrapper. This may be especially important in a year we expect to be shaped by a variety of cross currents.

With election uncertainty ahead, the intersection of economics and geopolitics is more in focus than ever. Domestic and foreign policy is being reshaped with lasting impacts on supply chains, with technology and manufacturing at the center of the 21^st century economic arms race. We see opportunity in the companies that are reshoring jobs and bolstering U.S. technological independence. With the space evolving rapidly, we turn to active management to identify the firms poised to benefit from geopolitical headwinds and capitalize on the rewiring of global supply chains.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

The arrival of artificial intelligence rapidly altered the investment landscape – triple-digit returns, and record earnings growth of AI-associated companies were largely undeterred by rates, growth, or inflation expectations. The breakthrough technology has already translated to substantial revenues and demand for clear beneficiaries – semiconductors are at the core of this transformation, and the industry has returned 85% so far this year, on the heels of triple digit 2023 gains.¹⁰

Rapid AI growth also necessitates significant energy demand. The electricity required to train AI software ChatGPT-3 could power 90,000 U.S. homes for a year; training its successor, GPT-4, needed the electricity to power 2.5 million homes.¹¹ Models are only getting larger, and while this expansion poses challenges (AI data centers are moving to cooler regions to manage energy consumption), it also highlights an opportunity for electricity providers. Utilities are dialing up demand forecasts and, despite the sector’s recent 10.3% year-to-date rally, remain largely under-owned as the sector shed $1.1bn in outflows on the year.¹² We turn constructive on this underappreciated AI-beneficiary, with strong fundamentals also supporting our optimism: the semiconductor industry’s 12-month forward P/E has swelled to double its long-term average while utilities trade at a discount to their long-term average, making the sector a more compelling entry point for the next phase of this trade.¹³

Figure 5: AI data centers are expected to consume more and more power

While AI will streamline operations, improve customer experiences, and drive human innovation, identifying the most promising AI-driven opportunities requires expertise and vigilance. We believe investors are best served by turning to active managers with a proven track record to navigate the rapidly evolving AI landscape and capitalize on the technological opportunities that come from the transformative power of AI.

INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES

Selectivity and dispersion

Country dispersion has picked up meaningfully compared to the average of the 2010s, although down from the peak, accelerated by a trend of broader de-globalization. This shift underscores the importance of selectivity in the international market, both on a tactical and strategic basis. Investors have increasingly used granular geographic exposures such as EM ex-China for regional allocations, single country ETFs to get dedicated exposures in countries like Mexico and India, or active manager strategies that allow flexible adjustment of country weights based on high conviction investment ideas.

Figure 6: Emerging market dispersion is higher than developed markets

Recent elections in Mexico and India demonstrate how market reactions to election outcomes can lead to rapid spikes in near-term market volatility. Both India and Mexico experienced meaningful selloffs immediately following their unexpected election results – a sweep in the Mexican presidential and legislative elections by the incumbent party, and a lack of a similar sweep in India. Meanwhile, a shifting European political landscape could also translate to heightened uncertainty and potential downside risks to equity markets.

Investors could look beyond short-term volatility to focus on longer-term strategic trends. We see investable opportunities in demographic transformations and supply chain reshoring (see the Thematic Mid-Year Update). Despite investor caution in Mexico and India due to post-election policy uncertainty, we see long-term investment opportunities in those countries due to the benefits from higher working age population and reshoring-related infrastructure and business investments.

The U.S. election poses risks for Latin America, with potential implications on immigration and tariffs that may challenge the Mexican equity market. On a tactical basis, we favor Chile as a country trading on justified valuations that could tactically benefit from its exposure to the copper mining industry, accelerated by stronger energy demand from rapid AI developments.

U.S. investors continue to separate China from broader EM allocations. While Chinese equities experienced a recent rebound on the back of discounted valuations and better-than-expected policy support and macro data, a bevy of structural worries such as declining demand in the property sectors and slowing demographic growth continue to weigh on risk sentiment. U.S.-listed ETFs with a geographic focus on EM ex-China regions attracted nearly $4.4bn from the investor community YTD.¹⁴ Reallocation in Asia also spotlights Japanese equities. Corporate reforms, monetary policy pivots, and return of real growth in the country could lead to more equity flows back to the market (see the Spotlight on Japan). 

DIVERSIFIERS

U.S. bonds and stocks are currently the most correlated they have been since 2000.¹⁵ While core bonds still play an important role in portfolios, an inverted yield curve, lack of term premium, and recent positive correlation to U.S. equities have meant that long-dated fixed income may not provide the same ballast it once did in portfolios.

The most pressing concern for many investors today is the lack of diversification on offer from traditional asset classes. With this in mind, we see opportunities for managers to go beyond the traditional and consider portfolio diversifiers like commodities and liquid alternatives to complement their core equity and bond allocations, and to differentiate sources of return in their portfolio.

Figure 7: Equity-bond correlations at recent highs

Liquid Alternatives

Investors may consider innovative, non-traditional diversifiers to help deliver competitive risk-adjusted performance while seeking to mitigate broad market exposures. We believe liquid alternatives are set to play an important role in portfolios due to their ability to capitalize on dispersion and fluctuations in growth, inflation, policy, and pricing. These strategies often seek to earn alpha on top of the cash rate they earn on their collateral without increasing exposure to broad equity and fixed income market risk.¹⁶

These "cash plus" alternatives can sit as strategic complements alongside fixed income and equity exposures to potentially build more resilient portfolios.

There are many different types of liquid alternatives in both the equity and fixed income space. Finding the right fit in an investor’s asset allocation is key in reducing portfolio volatility and focusing on long-term growth.

• Market neutral funds seek to strip out equity market beta while providing alpha-seeking flexibility to enhance strategic portfolio outcomes without taking additional exposure to broad market risk and without altering investment liquidity.¹⁷
• Multi-asset strategies seek to achieve stable and consistent returns by leveraging both discretionary and systematic strategies.
• Multi-strategy funds may trade across asset classes to exploit dislocations and relative value opportunities while delivering uncorrelated returns.

Figure 8: Alternative asset classes have done better historically when the return on “cash” is higher

Commodities

Commodities like gold can also serve as strong diversifiers within a portfolio and provide an alternative choice to investors who want further diversification from equity and fixed income markets. Gold is historically lauded as a haven during economic turmoil, viewed as a hedge against both inflation and geopolitical volatility shocks alike. While the non-yielding asset met muted interest in the last decade’s bull market, investors turned to gold during the pandemic-induced economic plunge in 2020, looking for a store of value and resiliency outside of fiat currencies. Recent price appreciation hails from a few catalysts: central bank demand to diversify reserve holdings, adding over 2,000 tons in the past two years, as well as concerns over budget deficits and USD volatility.¹⁸

The iShares Gold Trust is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and therefore is not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. The Trust is not a commodity pool for purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act. Before making an investment decision, you should carefully consider the risk factors and other information included in the prospectus.

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