Spotlight on spot bitcoin ETFs: a new era of access

Jay Jacobs Apr 06, 2024

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Since its inception in 2009, bitcoin's market capitalization has soared past $1T, and the emergence of over 20,000 other cryptoassets over the same period has contributed an additional ~$1T to the cryptoasset market's overall value.1
  • The SEC recently approved the issuance of spot bitcoin ETFs, providing the opportunity for convenient access to this emerging asset.
  • The recent developments in bitcoin access allow advisors to modernize their practice and appeal to a new generation of clients.
  • BlackRock has the tools to help advisors think about bitcoin and its impacts on the portfolio.

DEMYSTIFYING BITCOIN

So what is bitcoin? Bitcoin is a digital currency that enables instant peer-to-peer transfer of value globally without the need for intermediaries (like banks) and at next-to-no-cost. Instead, transactions are sent using blockchain technology, a public ledger that records and verifies transactions securely. All one truly needs to access bitcoin is a device with an internet connection.

In a class of its own, bitcoin has consistently dominated over 20,000 crypto challengers, many of which have struggled to gain enduring traction across market cycles without a clear, compelling use case. But bitcoin, as the original cryptoasset and with a finite supply of 21 million coins, has often been likened to “digital gold”, and represents the first internet-native monetary instrument to gain global adoption.2 Bitcoin’s scarce, non-sovereign, global and decentralized nature means bitcoin may hold a certain degree of insulation from risks such as currency debasement, financial system distress, or global geopolitical risks – in a similar manner to how gold is often viewed by investors. These properties have resulted in both gold and bitcoin experiencing a low correlation to U.S. stocks, over the longer-term (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Bitcoin has generally exhibited a low historical correlation with stocks, similar to gold

chart showing bitcoin has generally exhibited a low historical correlation with stocks

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. *Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin Spot Price, as of Dec. 31, 2023. 6-month trailing correlation of bitcoin and gold returns with S&P 500 returns. Source: Bloomberg Gold Spot Price, S&P Global, and BlackRock calculations. Average correlation with the S&P 500 over the period displayed (April 30, 2015 to Dec. 31, 2023). Correlation is a statistical measures that assesses the degree to which two variables are interconnected and quantifies the strength and direction of the relationship.


WHAT’S DRIVING BITCOIN ADOPTION?

Declining trust in institutions
In many countries, falling confidence in governments, financial institutions, and traditional monetary systems has driven people towards decentralized solutions that do not require trusted third parties.3

Economic digitalization
Digitalization is driving transformation across economic sectors, with a meaningful impact on markets.

Demographic dynamics
Compared to Baby Boomers, younger generations of investors disproportionately hold more cryptoassets.4

Maturing infrastructure
Maturation of digital assets infrastructure has eased barriers of entry.5

DEMOCRATIZING ACCESS TO THE PRICE OF BITCOIN

Until now, if investors wanted access to the spot (or current) price of bitcoin, they had to open an account on a crypto exchange – a burdensome process for many investors.

The recent SEC approval of spot bitcoin ETFs can allow for increased adoption within some of the deepest pools of assets in the wealth management industry.

So how can spot bitcoin ETFs benefit your clients?

1. Access: Clients can access bitcoin in their traditional brokerage accounts.

2. Convenience: Advisors and their clients bypass the operational burdens associated with holding bitcoin directly and potentially high trading costs while streamlining tax reporting and holistic portfolio analysis.

3. Cost: Investors benefit from lower trading and custody costs through economies of scale.

ADVISOR PLAYBOOK: PORTFOLIO IMPLEMENTATION AND PRACTICE

Bitcoin has become too big to ignore as ETFs expand access and digital assets gain prominence as an emerging asset. When you consider adding bitcoin to a client’s portfolio, it is important to understand how bitcoin functions alongside “traditional” asset classes to consider if and how much exposure a portfolio should have.

Bitcoin has outperformed other major asset classes in 7 of the last 10 calendar years (Figure 2). This massive price movement has equated to significant volatility and drawdowns. Along with historically strong returns and high volatility, bitcoin has come with the benefit of low (0.2) long-term correlation to U.S. stocks.6

Figure 2: Bitcoin performance vs. other major asset classes (2013-2023 YTD)

chart showing bitcoin performance vs. with other major asset classes

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Certain sectors and markets perform exceptionally well based on current market conditions and iShares and BlackRock Funds can benefit from that performance. Achieving such exceptional returns involves the risk of volatility and investors should not expect that such results will be repeated. Index performance does not represent actual Fund performance. For actual fund performance, please visit www.iShares.com or www.blackrock.com.
Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock calculations, as of Dec. 31, 2023. Asset classes shown include major liquid asset classes available to U.S. investors. Bitcoin returns calculated using Bloomberg Bitcoin Spot Price. SPX is represented by the S&P 500 Total Return Index (USD). EM is represented by the Dow Jones Emerging Markets Total Return Index (USD). AGG is represented by S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. HY is represented by S&P U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Index. Gold is the 1oz spot price of gold from Bloomberg. CMT is represented by Dow Jones Commodity Index.


Bitcoin's volatility remains elevated but has decreased as the value of bitcoin has risen, now sitting at around 50% (Figure 3). To put bitcoin’s volatility in context, various popular individual stocks experienced similar volatility levels around 50% over the same time period. Those with similar volatility levels included tech giants like Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), as well as non-tech stocks such as Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP), Range Resources (RRC), and Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH).7

Figure 3: Bitcoin volatility has declined as its value has increased, but remains elevated

Chart showing bitcoin volatility has declined as its value has increased, but remains elevated

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Start date reflects inception of CME bitcoin futures in the U.S. † Source: Bloomberg Bitcoin Spot Price, as of Dec. 31, 2023. ‡ BlackRock calculations of one-year trailing volatility. This represents the dispersion of spot bitcoin prices from Bloomberg around the mean over a one-year period.


ADVISOR PLAYBOOK: APPEALING TO THE NEXT GENERATION OF CLIENTS

The existence of spot bitcoin ETFs can help financial professionals seeking to differentiate their practice, appeal to the next generation of investors, and evaluate their client’s portfolios holistically.

Recapture assets held away. There are ~$960B of held-away cryptoassets;8 80% of bitcoin holders would prefer to hold through their financial institution.9

Appeal to the next generation of wealth. 83% of millennial millionaires hold cryptocurrencies, compared to just 4% of baby boomer millionaires.10 This is an opportunity for advisors to evolve their practice to appeal to the next generation of HNW clients.

Think about the whole portfolio. Adding any new asset class to your portfolio, especially bitcoin, gives you the ability to help your clients understand an increasingly important contributor to whole portfolio risk and return.

CONCLUSION: BITCOIN ACCESS HAS BEEN DEMOCRATIZED AND BLACKROCK CAN HELP

We can help advisors think about bitcoin, a growing asset, in the context of their clients’ portfolios with our tools like 360° Evaluator. Use 360° Evaluator to see how bitcoin works in the context of your portfolio and objectively analyze your portfolio across key attributes like exposure breakdowns, expenses, risk factors and much more.

BlackRock was founded as a fiduciary to our clients.  It’s our goal to bring investment choice and greater financial freedom to more and more people. We have the tools to help you reach your client’s long-term financial goals, with funds that match their  individual needs.

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Jay Jacobs

U.S. Head of Thematic and Active Equity ETFs, at BlackRock

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