Investors considering allocating to bitcoin are grappling with how to analyze it relative to traditional financial assets, given bitcoin’s unique properties and limited history.
Bitcoin, with its high volatility, is obviously a “risky” asset on a standalone basis. However, most of the risk and potential return drivers bitcoin faces are fundamentally different from traditional “risky” assets, making it unfitting for most traditional finance frameworks – including the “risk on” vs. “risk off” framework employed by some macro commentators.
Bitcoin’s nature as a scarce, non-sovereign, decentralized global asset has caused some investors to consider it as a flight to safety option in times of fear and around certain geopolitically disruptive events.
Over the long term, bitcoin’s adoption trajectory is likely to be driven by the intensity of concerns over global monetary stability, geopolitical stability, U.S. fiscal sustainability, and U.S. political stability. This is the inverse of the relationship that is generally attributed to traditional “risk assets” with respect to such forces.