Zeroing in on secular forces, not cycles
Market take
Weekly video_20241111
Vivek Paul
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
We are in a world where multiple, starkly different outcomes are possible. The decisive US election outcome has stoked uncertainty about future US policy.
At our 2025 Outlook Forum last week, BlackRock investment leaders met to discuss how to invest given large structural shifts happening now.
Title slide: Zeroing in on secular forces, not cycles
1: Tracking the transformation
We have seen unusually sharp swings in 10-year US Treasury yields with key macro releases. We think that reflects investors viewing incoming data through the lens of a typical business cycle when structural changes are at play.
The goal of the Forum was to track the transformation being driven by these structural changes. We evolved our macro scenarios to better understand and position for the likely market impact.
2: US strength and geopolitics in focus
Our portfolio managers are broadly positive on US stocks even if valuations look steep by some measures. The contrast with lagging European economic growth and stock performance remains stark.
Geopolitical fragmentation was consistently discussed given wars in the Middle East and Ukraine and tense China relations.
3: Gauging AI’s potential
AI and its energy and investment needs were still in focus following our June Forum. We generally agreed that the AI buildout can broaden to include other beneficiaries.
Quantifying AI’s longer-term economic impact remains a challenge, but we think it has the potential to reshape economies and boost economic growth.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
Our Forum discussion sought to clarify how structural shifts are driving the investment opportunities we see while assessing what’s in the price.
We think having a solid framework is key for anchoring views in this unusual environment.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
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Forum takeaways
Market-moving events can highlight structural shifts underway. Our investment leaders grapple with the implications of a world shaped by supply.
Market backdrop
US stocks soared last week, marking their largest weekly gain of the year. Small caps and banks led the way following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory.
Week ahead
This week, US CPI will help gauge if inflation is still falling toward the Fed’s 2% target. Recent PCE data indicates inflation will settle higher in the medium term.
We are in a world where multiple, starkly different outcomes are possible. The decisive US election outcome has stoked uncertainty about future US policy. At our 2025 Outlook Forum last week, BlackRock investment leaders met to discuss how to invest given large structural shifts happening now – and we updated the range of scenarios we considered feasible six months ago, reflecting our discussions on US exceptionalism, geopolitics and artificial intelligence (AI).
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Sensitive to surprises
Sensitivity of US 10-year yield to economic surprises, 2003-2024
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream, October 2024. Notes: The line shows how sensitive the US 10-year Treasury yield is to economic surprises, using regression analysis to estimate the relationship between US 10-year Treasury yields and the Citi Economics Surprise Index over a rolling six-month window. This is only an estimate of the relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and economic surprises.
Our Outlook Forum took place against the backdrop of a momentous US election. Markets welcomed the decisive result that took some near-term uncertainty off the table – even as medium-term policy uncertainty remains. Shifting narratives, from AI booms to recession fears, have driven volatility this year. Markets can overreact to these shifts. We have seen unusually sharp swings in 10-year US Treasury yields with key macro releases. See the chart. We think that reflects investors viewing new data and news through a business cycle lens when broader structural changes are at play. We have been nimble with our tactical view changes this year to lean against narrative-driven volatility. The goal of last week’s Forum: tracking the transformation driven by these structural changes. We evolved our macro scenarios to better understand and position for the transformation’s opportunities.
Structural forces at play
US exceptionalism – strong economic and corporate earnings growth – was a topic of debate at the Forum. Our portfolio managers are broadly positive on US equity markets. They noted this has more room to run, even if US stock valuations look steep. The contrast with lagging European economic growth, and stock performance, remains stark. Forum participants also spied a disconnect in Fed policy. The Fed cut its policy rate another 25 basis points last week as it sees inflation moving closer to its 2% target. Yet financial conditions are loose after a historically sharp tightening cycle. This unusual backdrop reinforces our view that this is not a typical business cycle – but rather an environment where structural forces are at play.
The geopolitical fragmentation mega force – or structural shift impacting returns now and in the future – ran through most discussions. The incoming US president takes office at a time of greater global fragility given wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and ongoing tensions with China. A punishing year for incumbents around the globe is pressuring G7 partners. Germany is headed for a new election. This follows France's divided election outcome earlier this year. The reform proposals laid out by Mario Draghi detail the challenges Europe faces. China rolled out some details of its fiscal stimulus highlighting its weak growth near term – and also faces long-term challenges from an aging population. AI will increasingly take center stage in geopolitics, featuring heavily in US-China strategic tech competition. Under the Biden administration, the US has elevated AI to the core of its military and technological priorities.
The debate on the impact of the AI mega force keeps evolving. Much of the discussion at our last Forum in June centered on AI and its energy and investment needs. That was still a focus – and we generally agreed that the AI buildout can broaden to include other beneficiaries. Quantifying AI’s longer-term economic impact remains challenging, but we think AI has the potential to eventually reshape economies and boost economic growth.
Our bottom line
Our Forum discussion sought to clarify how structural shifts are driving the investment opportunities we see while assessing what’s in the price. We think having a solid framework is key for anchoring views in this unusual environment.
Market backdrop
US stocks soared to new all-time highs last week, notching their largest weekly gain of the year. Small caps and banks led the way as possible beneficiaries of a second Trump term. US 10-year Treasury yields finished around 4.30%, down slightly on the week after jumping to four-month highs. A telegraphed 25-basis point Fed rate cut failed to move markets. Pricing of future cuts has come closer to our view, yet we still see rates settling higher than markets do.
This week, we focus on US CPI to see if inflation will keep falling toward the Fed’s 2% target. Short-term inflation has been decreasing, with immigration boosting the labor supply and cooling wage growth. However, recent services PCE data remains sticky, indicating that inflation may settle above 2% in the medium term. Long-term, structural supply constraints – like a shrinking workforce due to population aging – are expected to keep inflation pressures persistent.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Nov. 7, 2024. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
Nov. 12
UK employment data
Nov. 13
US core CPI
Nov. 15
UK GDP; Japan GDP
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Big calls
Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, November 2024
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | ||
| AI and US equities | We see the AI buildout and adoption creating opportunities across sectors. We get selective, moving toward beneficiaries outside the tech sector. Broad-based earnings growth and a quality tilt make us overweight US stocks overall. | |
| Japanese equities | A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the drag on earnings from a stronger yen and some mixed policy signals from the Bank of Japan are risks. | |
| Income in fixed income | The income cushion bonds provide has increased across the board in a higher rate environment. We like quality income in short-term credit. We’re neutral long-term US Treasuries. | |
| Strategic | ||
| Private credit | We think private credit is going to earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns relative to public credit risk. | |
| Fixed income granularity | We prefer intermediate credit, which offers similar yields with less interest rate risk than long-dated credit. We also like short-term government bonds, and UK long-term bonds. | |
| Equity granularity | We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten our outlook. | |
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, November 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2024
Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this. It leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but it is creating more space for alpha. For example, the alpha opportunity in highly efficient DM equities markets historically has been low. That’s no longer the case, we think, thanks to greater volatility, macro uncertainty and dispersion of returns. The new regime puts a premium on insights and skill, in our view.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||||
| United States |  |
We are overweight given our positive view on the AI theme. Valuations for AI beneficiaries are supported as tech companies keep beating high earnings expectations. We think upbeat sentiment can broaden out. Falling inflation is easing pressure on corporate profit margins. | ||||
| Europe |  |
We are underweight relative to the US, Japan and the UK – our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious. | ||||
| UK | |
We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets. | ||||
| Japan | |
We are overweight. A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the drag on earnings from a stronger yen and some mixed policy signals from the Bank of Japan are risks. | ||||
| Emerging markets |  |
We are neutral. The growth and earnings outlook is mixed. We see valuations for India and Taiwan looking high. | ||||
| China |  |
We are modestly overweight. China’s fiscal stimulus is not yet enough to address the drags on economic growth, but we think stocks are at attractive valuations to DM shares. We stand ready to pivot. We are cautious long term given China’s structural challenges. | ||||
| Fixed income | ||||||
| Short US Treasuries | |
We are underweight. We don’t think the Fed will cut rates as sharply as markets expect. An aging workforce, persistent budget deficits and the impact of structural shifts like geopolitical fragmentation should keep inflation and policy rates higher over the medium term. | ||||
| Long US Treasuries | |
We are neutral. Markets are pricing in sharp Fed rate cuts and term premium is close to zero. We think yields will keep swinging in both directions on incoming data. We prefer intermediate maturities less vulnerable to investors demanding greater term premium. | ||||
| Global inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation and growth may matter more near term. | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political uncertainty remains a risk to fiscal sustainability. | ||||
| UK Gilts | |
We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy. | ||||
| Japan government bonds |  |
We are underweight. Stock returns look more attractive to us. We see some of the least attractive returns in JGBs. | ||||
| China government bonds | |
We are neutral. Bonds are supported by looser policy. Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper. | ||||
| US agency MBS | |
We are neutral. We see agency MBS as a high-quality exposure in a diversified bond allocation and prefer it to IG. | ||||
| Short-term IG credit | |
We are overweight. Short-term bonds better compensate for interest rate risk. We prefer Europe over the US | ||||
| Long-term IG credit | |
We are underweight. Spreads are tight, so we prefer taking risk in equities from a whole portfolio perspective. We prefer Europe over the US | ||||
| Global high yield | |
We are neutral. Spreads are tight, but the total income makes it more attractive than IG. We prefer Europe. | ||||
| Asia credit | |
We are neutral. We don’t find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive. | ||||
| Emerging market - hard currency | |
We are neutral. The asset class has performed well due to its quality, attractive yields and EM central bank rate cuts. We think those rate cuts may soon be paused. | ||||
| Emerging market - local currency | |
We are neutral. Yields have fallen closer to US Treasury yields, and EM central banks look to be turning more cautious after cutting policy rates sharply. | ||||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The statements on alpha do not consider fees. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Euro-denominated tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2024
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| Europe ex UK | |
We are underweight relative to the US, Japan and the UK – our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious. | ||
| Germany | |
We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to peers, especially as global manufacturing activity bottoms out and ECB rate cuts ease financing conditions. | ||
| France | |
We are underweight given modestly supportive valuations. The result of France’s parliamentary election could impact business conditions for French companies. Yet only a small portion of the revenues and operations of major French companies are tied to domestic activity. | ||
| Italy | |
We are underweight. Valuations dynamics are supportive relative to peers, but recent growth and earnings outperformance seems largely due to significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023 that cannot be sustained over the next few years. | ||
| Spain | |
We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to other euro area stocks. The utilities sector looks set to benefit from an improving economic backdrop and advances in AI. | ||
| Netherlands | |
We are underweight. The Dutch stock markets' tilt to technology and semiconductors, a key beneficiary of higher demand for AI, is offset by relatively less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than their European peers. | ||
| Switzerland | |
We are underweight, in line with our broad European view. The earnings outlook has brightened, but valuations remain high versus other European markets. The index’s defensive tilt will likely be less supported as long as global risk appetite holds up, we think. | ||
| UK | |
We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations, and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political uncertainty remains a risk to fiscal sustainability. | ||
| German bunds | |
We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates broadly in line with our expectations, and 10-year yields are off their highs. | ||
| French OATs | |
We are neutral. The EU has already warned France for breaching fiscal rules and had its sovereign credit rating downgraded earlier this year. Elevated political uncertainty, persistent budget deficits and a slower pace of structural reforms remain challenges. | ||
| Italian BTPs | |
We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its budget deficits and debt profile, also prompting a warning from the EU. Other domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields. | ||
| UK gilts | |
We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy. | ||
| Swiss government bonds | |
We are neutral. The Swiss National Bank has been cutting policy rates this year amid reduced inflationary pressure. But it is unlikely to cut rates much further from here. | ||
| European inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation may matter more near term. Short-term breakeven inflation rates fell further after recent inflation data, making euro area inflation-linked bonds less attractive. | ||
| European investment grade credit | |
We are neutral European investment grade credit, with a preference for short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We maintain our regional preference for European investment grade over the US given spreads are not as tight. | ||
| European high yield | |
We are overweight. We find the income potential attractive. We still prefer European high yield given its more appealing valuations, higher quality and lower duration than in the US Spreads compensate for risks of a potential pick-up in defaults, in our view. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, November 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Vivek Paul
Global Head of Portfolio Research – BlackRock Investment Institute
Ben Powell
Chief Investment Strategist for the Middle East and APAC — BlackRock Investment Institute
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