Slide 1 — Title
Welcome everyone, and thank you for joining us for the March edition of Student of the Market.
Each month, our goal is simple: to step back from the noise, study what markets are actually doing, and extract lessons that help us make better long-term investment decisions.
This month, we’ll focus on three big themes: shifting leadership within equities, how diversification is starting to work again across asset classes, and why disciplined investing still matters in the face of volatility.
Slide 2 — Agenda / Roadmap
'Stocks, Bonds & Alternatives overview'
Here’s how we’ll structure today’s conversation.
We’ll start with equities — where leadership is clearly shifting. International stocks have taken the lead early this year, U.S. stocks have finally broken a long winning streak, and some of last year’s biggest winners are lagging.
From there, we’ll move into diversification — looking at growth versus value, the benefits of diversified technology exposure, and how markets historically respond to geopolitical events.
Finally, we’ll wrap up with bonds and alternatives, where correlations are easing, interest rates remain rangebound, and active strategies are beginning to shine again
• ~1:00
Slide 3 — Geopolitical events
“Stay the course amid geopolitical volatility”
Geopolitical events understandably create anxiety for investors, but history provides important perspective.
This table shows how markets performed before and after major geopolitical shocks over the past century. While short term reactions vary, longer term returns have generally been positive.
Even events that caused significant initial drawdowns were often followed by strong three year returns.
The most recent event — the U.S. and Israel attack on Iran — is understandably top of mind for everyone. While it’s too early to draw conclusions, history suggests that staying disciplined has been more effective than reacting emotionally to headlines.
1:45
Slide 4 — International stocks lead the way
“International stocks off to their best start”
Let’s start with one of the biggest stories of early 2026: international stocks are off to their best start in decades relative to U.S. stocks.
On the left side of the slide, you can see year to date performance across asset classes. International equities are clearly leading, while U.S. stocks and bonds have delivered much more modest returns so far.
The table on the right adds important historical context. When international stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks by a wide margin in the first two months of the year — like we’ve seen in 2026 — the outcomes over the rest of the year have been mixed.
Sometimes international leadership persists, sometimes it fades. The key takeaway is not prediction — it’s diversification. Leadership rotates, often quickly, and portfolios that stay globally diversified are better positioned to adapt.
It’s also notable that emerging markets are off to their best start versus U.S. stocks since 1994, reinforcing that this leadership shift is broader than just developed international markets.
~2:42
Slide 5 — U.S. stock winning streak ends
“U.S. stock monthly winning streak comes to an end”
Turning to U.S. equities, February marked the end of a remarkable run. U.S. stocks posted nine consecutive months of gains from May 2024 through January 2026 — the longest winning streak since 2018.
The chart on the left shows how rare extended monthly winning streaks are going back to 1926. Once you get beyond six or seven months, the frequency drops sharply.
Importantly, the chart on the right shows what typically has happened next. Historically, when long winning streaks end, forward returns have still been positive — and often stronger than average.
In other words, the end of a streak doesn’t signal the end of a bull market. It usually reflects a pause, not a reversal. Historically these long winning streaks have been a symptom of a lasting bull market.
This is a helpful reminder for investors who may feel uneasy when markets finally pull back after a strong run.
~ 3:36
Slide 6— The Magnificent Seven
“Market leaders: The Magnificent Seven trailing to start 2026”
One reason U.S. stocks have cooled is that last year’s biggest leaders — the so called Magnificent Seven — have struggled early in 2026.
The bar chart on the left shows cumulative returns since 2023. While the Mag 7 dominated performance in 2023 and 2024, they’re trailing both the broader market and the other 493 stocks so far this year.
The table on the right shows why it’s important to avoid treating this group as a single trade. Even within the Mag 7, returns have varied significantly across companies and years.
Notably, zero of the Magnificent Seven stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 year to date in 2026 — a sharp contrast from prior years.
The takeaway isn’t that leadership is gone — it’s that leadership is broadening, which historically has been healthier for markets.
4:30
Slide 7 — Growth vs. Value
“After a historic run, growth stock leadership shows signs of slowing”
Stepping ahead to growth and value, we’re also seeing a shiftin style leadership. After the longest and by far the best growth stock cycle in investing history, value is outperforming growth in 2026.
This chart on the left shows the 10year rolling performance of growth minus value going back to 1928 . The most recent period stands out as historically extreme — growth dominated for longer than ever before.
The chart on the right shows what has typically followed. After periods where growth outperforms value by 5% or more over a decade, value has often delivered stronger returns over the subsequent three years.
This rotation might be durable in 2026, but certainly it reinforces the importance of balance. Style cycles can last longer than expected — but they don’t last forever.
5:26
Slide 8 — Technology funds vs. individual stocks
“Diversified technology funds can reduce risk”
Stepping ahead looking at technology funds versus individual techology stocks we highlight a powerful but often overlooked lesson — especially in technology.
Over multiple time periods, more than half of individual technology stocks have lost money. In contrast, diversified technology mutual funds and ETFs have had dramatically lower loss rates.
For example, over the past three years, 53% of individual tech stocks lost money, compared with just 1.6% of diversified technology funds. Over ten years, none of the diversified funds in this sample lost money.
This isn’t an argument against innovation — it’s an argument for diversification. Technology leadership changes quickly, and owning the theme through diversified vehicles can help investors stay invested while managing risk.
~6:20
Slide 9 — Stock bond correlation
“Historic stock and bond correlation eases”
One of the biggest frustrations for investors in recent years has been the breakdown of stock bond diversification.
This slide shows that correlation peaked at historically high levels in 2024, but has since begun to ease. The three year correlation has fallen meaningfully.
The table highlights months when stocks were negative and bonds also struggled — a painful stretch that lasted 14 of 18 months. Importantly, that streak has now ended.
Meanwhile, the chart on the right shows that alternatives like global macro and market neutral strategies have remained largely uncorrelated when stocks were down.
Diversification may not work perfectly every year — but it tends to reassert itself over time.
6:57
Slide 10 — Interest rates & active fixed income
“Interest rates range bound and active fixed income”
Turning to fixed income, interest rates have remained volatile but largely range bound.
The 10 year Treasury yield has moved sharply over the past few years, yet recently has stayed within a defined range. This environment has favored active, flexible bond strategies.
The bar chart shows that multi sector and non traditional bond strategies have delivered higher annualized returns than cash and core bonds since late 2022.
When rates aren’t trending strongly in one direction, security selection, duration management, and flexibility matter more — reinforcing the value of active management in fixed income.
Summary
In summary, the March 2026 Student of the Market highlights a meaningful shift in market leadership and a reemergence of diversification benefits. International equities—particularly emerging markets—have led earlyyear performance, while U.S. stocks and last year’s largest winners have cooled after an unusually long winning streak. Style leadership is also rotating, with value outperforming growth following a historically extended growth cycle. Across portfolios, diversification is showing renewed value: stockbond correlations are easing, alternatives have remained resilient during equity drawdowns, and diversified investment vehicles—especially in technology—have reduced downside risk relative to individual stocks. Against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and rangebound interest rates, the key lesson is timeless: disciplined, diversified investing remains the most effective way to navigate market volatility and shifting leadership.
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