BONDS / FIXED INCOME

No time to yield: Getting your clients into bonds

Apr 25, 2024
  • Karen Veraa, CFA

BlackRock Bottom Line: Time to re-enter the bond market with ETFs?

Some investors may be considering putting cash to work with bond ETFs. BlackRock’s Hui Sien Koay explains why

1

00:00:00,100 --> 00:00:02,802

Market volatility over the past few years

 

2

00:00:02,802 --> 00:00:05,005

and rising interest rates have pushed

 

3

00:00:05,005 --> 00:00:07,574

many investors to the safety of cash.

 

4

00:00:07,741 --> 00:00:09,976

But the time for elevated cash rates

 

5

00:00:09,976 --> 00:00:11,678

may be coming to an end.

 

6

00:00:11,678 --> 00:00:14,080

With bond yields at decades highs,

 

7

00:00:14,114 --> 00:00:16,683

is it time to put that cash to work

 

8

00:00:16,683 --> 00:00:18,051

with bond ETFs?

 

9

00:00:26,926 --> 00:00:30,330

Historically, the market tends to price in rate actions

 

10

00:00:30,330 --> 00:00:33,233

before central banks, like the Federal Reserve,

 

11

00:00:33,233 --> 00:00:35,201

even make a move.

 

12

00:00:35,201 --> 00:00:38,204

A pivot to rate cuts from the central banks

 

13

00:00:38,204 --> 00:00:40,840

later this year is still being debated,

 

14

00:00:41,341 --> 00:00:43,810

but current yield levels may mean

 

15

00:00:43,810 --> 00:00:46,346

an opportunity in fixed income.

 

16

00:00:46,346 --> 00:00:48,181

This means investors who wait

 

17

00:00:48,181 --> 00:00:50,450

for a definitive signal on rate cuts

 

18

00:00:50,450 --> 00:00:53,887

may miss the chance to lock in higher yields.

 

19

00:00:54,154 --> 00:00:56,156

Today, those yields are higher

 

20

00:00:56,156 --> 00:00:58,224

than they were two decades ago.

 

21

00:00:58,224 --> 00:00:59,793

Investors are recognizing

 

22

00:00:59,793 --> 00:01:01,761

this and turning to bonds:

 

23

00:01:01,761 --> 00:01:05,465

2023 global bond ETFs notched a record

 

24

00:01:05,465 --> 00:01:09,069

$333 billion (USD) in inflows.

 

25

00:01:09,069 --> 00:01:10,804

Even with those record inflows,

 

26

00:01:10,804 --> 00:01:12,906

investors are still significantly

 

27

00:01:12,906 --> 00:01:14,574

underweight to fixed income.

 

28

00:01:14,574 --> 00:01:18,311

They have an average of 19% allocation,

 

29

00:01:18,311 --> 00:01:21,648

lower than the 24% reported in March 2020,

 

30

00:01:21,648 --> 00:01:23,349

and significantly underweight

 

31

00:01:23,349 --> 00:01:26,719

compared to the historical 40% benchmark.

 

32

00:01:26,719 --> 00:01:29,589

For investors considering bonds again,

 

33

00:01:29,589 --> 00:01:32,926

we believe bond ETFs can be a tool of choice,

 

34

00:01:32,926 --> 00:01:36,162

as bond ETFs can provide granularity,

 

35

00:01:36,162 --> 00:01:39,365

efficiency and versatility when allocating

 

36

00:01:39,365 --> 00:01:41,668

fixed income exposure to portfolios.

 

37

00:01:42,168 --> 00:01:43,536

The Bottom Line is that

 

38

00:01:43,536 --> 00:01:45,572

instead of trying to time the markets,

 

39

00:01:45,572 --> 00:01:48,108

 investors have an opportunity to retool

 

40

00:01:48,108 --> 00:01:51,010

and rebalance portfolios with bond ETFs

 

41

00:01:51,010 --> 00:01:53,179

ahead of central bank policy changes.

 

 

Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses which may be obtained by visitingwww.iShares.com orwww.blackrock.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

An investment in fixed income funds is not equivalent to and involves risks not associated with an investment in cash.

 

Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments.

 

Buying and selling shares of ETFs may result in brokerage commissions. There can be no assurance that an active trading market for shares of an ETF will develop or be maintained.

 

Diversification and asset allocation may not protect against market risk or loss of principal.

 

Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

This material represents an assessment of the market environment as of the date indicated; is subject to change; and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any issuer or security in particular.

This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change.

 

This material contains general information only and does not take into account an individual's financial circumstances. This information should not be relied upon as a primary basis for an investment decision. Rather, an assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate in individual circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial professional before making an investment decision.

 

Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA.

©2024 BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. iSHARES and BLACKROCK are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. 

1

00:00:00,100 --> 00:00:02,802

Market volatility over the past few years

 

2

00:00:02,802 --> 00:00:05,005

and rising interest rates have pushed

 

3

00:00:05,005 --> 00:00:07,574

many investors to the safety of cash.

 

4

00:00:07,741 --> 00:00:09,976

But the time for elevated cash rates

 

5

00:00:09,976 --> 00:00:11,678

may be coming to an end.

 

6

00:00:11,678 --> 00:00:14,080

With bond yields at decades highs,

 

7

00:00:14,114 --> 00:00:16,683

is it time to put that cash to work

 

8

00:00:16,683 --> 00:00:18,051

with bond ETFs?

 

9

00:00:26,926 --> 00:00:30,330

Historically, the market tends to price in rate actions

 

10

00:00:30,330 --> 00:00:33,233

before central banks, like the Federal Reserve,

 

11

00:00:33,233 --> 00:00:35,201

even make a move.

 

12

00:00:35,201 --> 00:00:38,204

A pivot to rate cuts from the central banks

 

13

00:00:38,204 --> 00:00:40,840

later this year is still being debated,

 

14

00:00:41,341 --> 00:00:43,810

but current yield levels may mean

 

15

00:00:43,810 --> 00:00:46,346

an opportunity in fixed income.

 

16

00:00:46,346 --> 00:00:48,181

This means investors who wait

 

17

00:00:48,181 --> 00:00:50,450

for a definitive signal on rate cuts

 

18

00:00:50,450 --> 00:00:53,887

may miss the chance to lock in higher yields.

 

19

00:00:54,154 --> 00:00:56,156

Today, those yields are higher

 

20

00:00:56,156 --> 00:00:58,224

than they were two decades ago.

 

21

00:00:58,224 --> 00:00:59,793

Investors are recognizing

 

22

00:00:59,793 --> 00:01:01,761

this and turning to bonds:

 

23

00:01:01,761 --> 00:01:05,465

2023 global bond ETFs notched a record

 

24

00:01:05,465 --> 00:01:09,069

$333 billion (USD) in inflows.

 

25

00:01:09,069 --> 00:01:10,804

Even with those record inflows,

 

26

00:01:10,804 --> 00:01:12,906

investors are still significantly

 

27

00:01:12,906 --> 00:01:14,574

underweight to fixed income.

 

28

00:01:14,574 --> 00:01:18,311

They have an average of 19% allocation,

 

29

00:01:18,311 --> 00:01:21,648

lower than the 24% reported in March 2020,

 

30

00:01:21,648 --> 00:01:23,349

and significantly underweight

 

31

00:01:23,349 --> 00:01:26,719

compared to the historical 40% benchmark.

 

32

00:01:26,719 --> 00:01:29,589

For investors considering bonds again,

 

33

00:01:29,589 --> 00:01:32,926

we believe bond ETFs can be a tool of choice,

 

34

00:01:32,926 --> 00:01:36,162

as bond ETFs can provide granularity,

 

35

00:01:36,162 --> 00:01:39,365

efficiency and versatility when allocating

 

36

00:01:39,365 --> 00:01:41,668

fixed income exposure to portfolios.

 

37

00:01:42,168 --> 00:01:43,536

The Bottom Line is that

 

38

00:01:43,536 --> 00:01:45,572

instead of trying to time the markets,

 

39

00:01:45,572 --> 00:01:48,108

 investors have an opportunity to retool

 

40

00:01:48,108 --> 00:01:51,010

and rebalance portfolios with bond ETFs

 

41

00:01:51,010 --> 00:01:53,179

ahead of central bank policy changes.

 

 

Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses which may be obtained by visitingwww.iShares.com orwww.blackrock.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

An investment in fixed income funds is not equivalent to and involves risks not associated with an investment in cash.

 

Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments.

 

Buying and selling shares of ETFs may result in brokerage commissions. There can be no assurance that an active trading market for shares of an ETF will develop or be maintained.

 

Diversification and asset allocation may not protect against market risk or loss of principal.

 

Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

This material represents an assessment of the market environment as of the date indicated; is subject to change; and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any issuer or security in particular.

This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change.

 

This material contains general information only and does not take into account an individual's financial circumstances. This information should not be relied upon as a primary basis for an investment decision. Rather, an assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate in individual circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial professional before making an investment decision.

 

Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA.

©2024 BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. iSHARES and BLACKROCK are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. 

Key takeaways

  • Yields are higher today than they were 20 years ago. If inflation indicators continue to fall, the time of elevated cash rates may be drawing to a close.
  • Investors are choosing ETFs in record numbers, with 2023 global bond ETF inflows at $333 billion.1
  • But investors are still significantly underweight to fixed income, with a 19% average allocation, based on total U.S. industry assets under management.2
  • We believe investors may still want to consider moving back into fixed income because, historically, the market has tended to price in rate actions before they occur.
  • ETFs can be a powerful tool for investors as they recalibrate their fixed income allocations.

Seek to capture higher rates

Despite an uneven descent in inflation,3 the Fed may still be nearing the end of a tightening cycle that made cash savings rates attractive. This means your clients may benefit from moving back into fixed income to capture current yields, a particularly compelling message for clients who may be overweight cash.

Instead of trying to time the markets (which is near impossible), investors may consider beginning to move ahead of announced changes in Fed policy rates, incrementally stepping out of cash, and increasing fixed income exposure by getting back into bonds. History shows that when the U.S. central bank pivots from a hiking cycle to an easing one, bond markets have tended to do well in the pause period, as Figure 1 illustrates.

Figure 1: Bonds have historically delivered the strongest performance during the ‘hold’ period
Average annualized returns (%), 1990 - 2024

Municipal bonds offer attractive tax-equivalent yield

Source: Bloomberg as of March 31, 2024. Historical analysis calculates average performance of the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (bonds) and the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bills: 1-3 Months TR Index (cash) over different time periods. The dates used for the last rate hike of a cycle are: Feb. 1, 1995, March 25, 1997, May 16, 2000, June 29, 2006, Dec. 19, 2018. Dates used for the first-rate cut are: July 7, 1995, Sept. 29, 1998, Jan. 3, 2001, Sept. 18, 2007, Aug. 1, 2019. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Get your clients off the sidelines

The volatile markets of the past few years may have caused investors to, understandably, move money into a less volatile asset – cash.

While cash has provided income temporarily during the Fed’s recent tightening cycle, over the long-term in normal, upward-sloping yield curve environments, longer-dated instruments can provide more income to a portfolio.4

Many investors are still significantly underweight to fixed income, with a 19% average fixed income allocation, based on total U.S. industry assets under management.5 The allocation has fallen far below the “60/40” portfolio allocation often referenced in balanced portfolio discussions. Although the 60/40 allocation itself may not be right for every client, we believe investors on average should hold more fixed income than they currently do depending on factors like their goals and their tolerance for risk.

Harnessing the power of bond etfs

We believe bond ETFs will be a tool of choice for advisors as they recalibrate clients’ fixed income allocations and implement whole portfolio solutions using index and active strategies. With over 2,300 bond ETFs globally, investors today have more choices and tools than ever.6 The breadth of the fixed income ETF toolkit provides the flexibility to suit almost any client’s income or return objective and risk profile.

In 2023, global bond ETF inflows rose 25%, hitting a record $333 billion.7 We believe this market will grow to $6 trillion in assets under management by 2030 as more investors view ETFs as a powerful way to access the bond market.

Download the full report

Subscribe for the latest market insights and trends

Get the latest on markets from BlackRock thought leaders including our models strategist, delivered weekly.
Please try again
First Name *
Last Name *
Email Address *
Country *
Thank you
Thank you
Thank you for your subscription
Karen Veraa, CFA
Head of U.S. iShares Fixed Income Strategy

Access exclusive tools and insights

Explore My Hub, your new personalized dashboard, for portfolio tools, market insights, and practice resources.

Get access now