Fund manager commentary
31 May 2025
Comments from the Portfolio Managers
Please note that the commentary below includes historic information in respect of the performance of portfolio investments, index performance data and the Company’s NAV and share performance.
The figures shown relate to past performance. Past Performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.
The Company’s NAV rose by +6.1% in May, significantly outperforming the benchmark, the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index, which returned +0.6% on a net basis over the same period. All performance figures are in sterling terms with dividends reinvested. 1
Emerging Markets had yet another positive month in May (+4.3%), but underperformed Developed Markets (+6.0%) after three months of outperformance. The gains were driven largely by the potential de-escalation of trade tensions. Latin American performance was more muted, returning 1.6% in US Dollar terms, where Peru was the best performing market, up +7.6%.
At the portfolio level, security selection in Brazil and Mexico were the largest contributors to performance during the month. On the other hand, an overweight exposure to an IT services name in Argentina detracted from performance.
From a security lens, an overweight position to a collection of Brazilian consumer names did well, with Azzas 2154, Lojas Renner and Alpargatas all contributing to performance after delivering strong Q1 earnings. XP, the Brazilian investment management platform, also did well on the back of decent results. An overweight position in Brazilian Health Care names, Hapvida and Rede D'or, also aided performance during the month. Hapvida reported a decline in net new judicial deposits, which was seen as a positive for the sector overall.
On the flipside, the biggest detractor over the month was our overweight position in IT services company, Globant. The stock pulled back on a poor set of earnings and weaker than expected guidance. Not owning Peruvian bank Credicorp was another relative detractor.
Whilst portfolio positioning remained largely unchanged in May, we did take advantage of the strong performance in Brazil year-to-date to take some profits on domestic names like Azzas 2154 and Rede D'or. We also sold out of Brazilian electric utility company, Energisa and added to Brazilian car rental company, Localiza, as we see greater upside for the latter.
Mexico remains the largest portfolio overweight as at the end of May, while Chile is the largest underweight.
Outlook
Latin American equities have re-bounded sharply in 2025, and have outperformed both broader MSCI Emerging Markets and MSCI World indices proving to be an unlikely defensive candidate amid an increasingly volatile world. Within Latin America, inflation has surprised to the downside in some countries, interest rate expectations are falling, and earnings across several sectors are beating forecasts. Despite this, valuations remain attractive.
We see interesting bottom-up opportunities particularly in Mexico and Brazil. In Mexico, we do not see a major change in the secular trend of nearshoring of supply chains, as Mexico will remain a much cheaper location to manufacture than the United States. President Sheinbaum's pragmatic approach to trade negotiations underscores this view.
Whilst we have recently taken some profits on our domestic Brazil exposure, we remain positive on the country on a 12-18 month view and believe there is still room for significant upside. We favour companies with lower leverage and stronger earnings outlook. Given cheap valuations, we also see the potential for share buybacks supporting the market in 2025.
1Source: BlackRock as at 31 May 2025
Source: Unless otherwise stated all data is sourced from BlackRock as at 31 May 2025.
Any opinions or forecasts represent an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.
This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research, investment advice or a recommendation.
Risk: Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communication is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.