High-for-longer shapes strategic view
Market take
Weekly video_20241118
Devan Nathwani
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
The U.S. election result reinforces our expectation for persistent inflationary pressures and high-for-longer interest rates.
We evolve our strategic views on a horizon of five years and longer due to this outlook.
Title slide: High-for-longer shapes strategic view
1: All in on infrastructure
As we expected, private equity and real estate valuations have cooled from their recent peaks as financing costs rose with interest rates.
We see more attractive valuations and healthier deal activity in infrastructure equity assets. We also see mega forces benefiting infrastructure.
2: Staying dynamic strategically
We’re in a more volatile macro regime. President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda reinforces our expectations for persistent inflation in the medium term and for interest rates settling higher than pre-pandemic.
We remain dynamic with our strategic views.
3: Granularity in fixed income
We reaffirm our preference for short-term over long-term bonds in the U.S. on a strategic and tactical horizon.
We expect long-term yields to rise as investors demand more compensation for the risk of holding them given sticky inflation, persistent fiscal deficits and more bond volatility.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
We upgrade growth private markets to neutral given our preference for infrastructure equity.
While the long-term outlook is uncertain, we’re more pro-risk on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon and lean into U.S. equities.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
High for longer
The U.S. election result reinforces our expectation for persistent inflation pressures and high-for-longer interest rates. We evolve our strategic views.
Market backdrop
U.S. stocks slipped last week from all-time highs as the post-election surge ran out of steam. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit six-month highs.
Week ahead
Global flash PMIs for November will give clues on the current state of uneven global growth. Markets watch UK CPI after a second Bank of England rate cut.
We see a world shaped by supply, with structural forces set to keep inflation pressures persistent and interest rates high for longer. We favor infrastructure equity, like stakes in airports and data centers, in our strategic views as it could benefit from such forces. The impact of policy changes after the U.S. election could reinforce geopolitical fragmentation and ongoing budget deficits. We stay cautious on long-term U.S. Treasuries and expect yields to rise long term.
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Infrastructure stands out
Change in private market valuations, 2001-2024
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, October 2024, with data from NCREIF, EDHEC and LCD. Note: The chart shows the cumulative change in the standard measure of valuations across infrastructure equity, private equity and real estate. Infrastructure equity and private equity valuations are represented as enterprise value/EBITDA, and real estate valuation is represented as market value/net operating income.
The divergence in how private markets have reacted to higher interest rates has shaped our views on a strategic horizon of five years and longer. We had been overweight income private markets, like private credit, relative to growth assets for about two years. We expected higher rates and financing costs to boost returns for investors in private debt with floating interest rates. Now we go neutral income assets as spreads tighten, yet private markets stay a sizeable part of our strategic portfolios. Within equity-like growth private markets, private equity and real estate valuations have peaked after decades of falling financing costs. See the chart. We upgrade growth assets to neutral as valuations cool from financing costs rising with rates. We still like infrastructure equity as we see fewer signs of lofty valuations (orange line) and it looks set to benefit from mega forces, or structural shifts.
Mega forces are playing a bigger role in shaping markets and economies – and driving returns now and in the future. Some of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, such as large-scale tariffs, reinforce why we see persistent inflation in the medium term and interest rates staying above pre-pandemic levels. If implemented, those policies could reinforce geopolitical fragmentation and economic competition. Plans to reduce legal immigration could impact the labor market. And we expect persistent budget deficits – one factor we see pushing up long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
Staying selective strategically
As mega forces collide, we get more dynamic – even in our strategic views. In addition to our evolving views on private markets in Q3, we stay positive on direct lending, or directly negotiated loans to small- and mid-sized firms, as the future of finance unfolds. Demand for private credit could rise as banks limit lending. But private markets are complex and not suitable for all investors. Valuations matter more over a strategic horizon. That’s why we prefer attractive valuations in emerging market (EM) stocks over developed markets (DMs). We favor EMs like India that sit at the crosscurrent of mega forces. We still like Japan within DM stocks and are neutral on DM overall given richer valuations. Our preference for short-term bonds and UK gilts keeps us overweight DM government bonds. We stay underweight long-term U.S. Treasuries on a strategic horizon as we expect yields to rise over time. We see investors demanding more term premium, or compensation for the risk of holding them, given sticky inflation, persistent fiscal deficits and greater bond market volatility.
While the long-term outlook is uncertain, we’re more pro-risk on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon. That’s supported by a more favorable macro backdrop and upbeat investor sentiment given post-election clarity and hopes for deregulation. We think the energy, financial and tech sectors can benefit. We stay overweight U.S. stocks and think the artificial intelligence theme can expand beyond the tech sector.
Our bottom line
We are in a world shaped by supply and mega forces. The U.S. election result reinforces that view. We see infrastructure equity benefiting from mega forces as we update our strategic views (for professional investors).
Market backdrop
U.S. stocks slipped last week after reaching new all-time highs, with tech shares leading the retreat. The S&P 500 is still up 23% this year and 1% since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed, notching new six-month highs above 4.5%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates given the economy’s strength. Market pricing of Fed rate cuts is now more in line with our view.
Global flash PMIs for November will give clues on the current state of uneven global growth, how the robust U.S. economy is faring in Q4 and whether the euro area is showing more signs of life after stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP. Markets will also be watching UK CPI out this week. The Bank of England recently cut its policy rate for the second time this year on sharply slowing inflation and some concerns over the growth outlook.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Nov. 14, 2024. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in U.S. dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (U.S., Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
Nov. 20
UK CPI; Japan trade data
Nov. 21
U.S. Philly Fed business index;
Nov. 22
Global flash PMIs; Japan CPI
Big calls
Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, November 2024.
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | ||
| AI and U.S. equities | We see the AI buildout and adoption creating opportunities across sectors. We get selective, moving toward beneficiaries outside the tech sector. Broad-based earnings growth and a quality tilt make us overweight U.S. stocks overall. | |
| Japanese equities | A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the drag on earnings from a stronger yen and some mixed policy signals from the Bank of Japan are risks. | |
| Income in fixed income | The income cushion bonds provide has increased across the board in a higher interest rate environment. We like quality income in short-term credit. We’re neutral long-term U.S. Treasuries. | |
| Strategic | ||
| Private markets | We see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. For income, we prefer direct lending given more attractive yields than in public credit. | |
| Fixed income granularity | We prefer intermediate credit, which offers similar yields with less interest rate risk than long-dated credit. We also like short-term government bonds, and UK long-term bonds. | |
| Equity granularity | We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten our outlook. | |
Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective, November 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2024.
Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but is creating more space for alpha.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||||
| United States |  |
We are overweight given our positive view on the AI theme. Valuations for AI beneficiaries are supported as tech companies keep beating high earnings expectations. We think upbeat sentiment can broaden out. Falling inflation is easing pressure on corporate profit margins. | ||||
| Europe |  |
We are underweight relative to the U.S., Japan and the UK – our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious. | ||||
| U.K. | |
We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets. | ||||
| Japan | |
We are overweight. A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the drag on earnings from a stronger yen and some mixed policy signals from the Bank of Japan are risks. | ||||
| Emerging markets |  |
We are neutral. The growth and earnings outlook is mixed. We see valuations for India and Taiwan looking high. | ||||
| China | |
We are modestly overweight. China’s fiscal stimulus is not yet enough to address the drags on economic growth, but we think stocks are at attractive valuations to DM shares. We stand ready to pivot. We are cautious long term given China’s structural challenges. | ||||
| Fixed income | ||||||
| Short U.S. Treasuries | |
We are underweight. We don’t think the Fed will cut rates as sharply as markets expect. An aging workforce, persistent budget deficits and the impact of structural shifts like geopolitical fragmentation should keep inflation and policy rates higher over the medium term. | ||||
| Long U.S. Treasuries | |
We are neutral. Markets are pricing in sharp Fed rate cuts and term premium is close to zero. We think yields will keep swinging in both directions on incoming data. We prefer intermediate maturities less vulnerable to investors demanding greater term premium. | ||||
| Global inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation and growth may matter more near term. | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political uncertainty remains a risk to fiscal sustainability. | ||||
| UK Gilts |  |
We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy. | ||||
| Japan government bonds |  |
We are underweight. Stock returns look more attractive to us. We see some of the least attractive returns in JGBs. | ||||
| China government bonds | |
We are neutral. Bonds are supported by looser policy. Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper. | ||||
| U.S. agency MBS | |
We are neutral. We see agency MBS as a high-quality exposure in a diversified bond allocation and prefer it to IG. | ||||
| Short-term IG credit | |
We are overweight. Short-term bonds better compensate for interest rate risk. We prefer Europe over the U.S. | ||||
| Long-term IG credit | |
We are underweight. Spreads are tight, so we prefer taking risk in equities from a whole portfolio perspective. We prefer Europe over the U.S. | ||||
| Global high yield | |
We are neutral. Spreads are tight, but the total income makes it more attractive than IG. We prefer Europe. | ||||
| Asia credit | |
We are neutral. We don’t find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive. | ||||
| Emerging market - hard currency | |
We are neutral. The asset class has performed well due to its quality, attractive yields and EM central bank rate cuts. We think those rate cuts may soon be paused. | ||||
| Emerging market - local currency | |
We are neutral. Yields have fallen closer to U.S. Treasury yields, and EM central banks look to be turning more cautious after cutting policy rates sharply. | ||||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a U.S. dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Meet the Authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Christian Olinger
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Devan Nathwani
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
