Getting a grip on uncertainty

It can sometimes feel like the world has been upended this year. 2025 has brought sharp policy pivots. And uncertainty is everywhere. But we think this is just an acute manifestation of the new macro regime we’ve been describing for a few years.

While AI and other mega forces are transforming our world, they’ve also disrupted traditional long-term macro anchors like stable inflation and predictable growth.To navigate this, The BlackRock Investment Institute has identified three key themes in the 2025 Midyear Outlook.

First, Investing in the here and now. Right now, we think we have more certainty about the near-term economic outlook than the long-term one – a reversal of usual investing logic. That’s because we see immutable economic laws limiting policy action and how fast the world can change. We put more emphasis on our shorter-term tactical investment views — and stay overweight U.S. equities.

Second, taking risk with no macro anchor. The volatile macro environment injects risk into portfolios that needs to be actively managed. But we think it is also a great environment for achieving alpha, or above-benchmark returns.

Third, finding anchors in mega forces. Even with the loss of long-term macro anchors, we believe mega forces are durable drivers of returns as they transform the world. But it’s important to keep tracking their evolution across and within asset classes.

The Bottom Line is: as we head into the second half of 2025, we think investors may navigate uncertainty by focusing on immutable laws that limit how fast the world can change – while leaning into the transformative mega forces shaping the future.