MARKET INSIGHTS

Weekly market commentary

2025-03-03
  • BlackRock Investment Institute

Leaning on the tactical in our views

­Market take

Weekly video_20250303

Devan Nathwani

Portfolio Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute

Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take

Camera frame

We see mega forces driving an economic transformation that could keep shifting the long-term trend. That long-term uncertainty is being compounded by near-term policy uncertainty this year.

Title slide: Leaning on the tactical in our views

1: How we navigate uncertainty

We allocate a larger share of portfolio risk to our views on a six- to 12-month horizon, allowing us to be nimble in adjusting our views.
Our scenarios for positive and negative outcomes for the economy and markets also help us adjust our views.

2: Conviction in the short term

The AI theme and strong earnings give us more tactical conviction in US stocks, even with valuations historically high by most gauges.

Yet it’s harder to know what a reasonable valuation is during a time of transformation. Take further concentration in the tech sector as investors aim to tap into the AI theme. Strong earnings growth could also back valuations, as we’ve seen recently with Nvidia.

3: Private markets for the long run

Over the medium term, we think some of the most attractive opportunities are in private markets as they intertwine with mega forces. Yet private markets aren’t immune from heightened uncertainty. They are also complex, with high risk and volatility, and not suitable for all investors.

Outro: Here’s our Market take

The AI theme and strong earnings keep us overweight US stocks tactically.

Over the long-term we see attractive opportunities in private markets from the mega forces driving the transformation ahead.

Today’s portfolio still holds plenty of US equities but also makes room for private markets.

Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary

Navigating uncertainty

This unusually uncertain policy environment requires different views across horizons, in our view. We like US stocks now and private markets medium term.

Market backdrop

US stocks fell about 1% last week, with the S&P 500 trimming its gains for the year to 1.5%. Ten-year US Treasury yields fell sharply to two-month lows.

Week ahead

We expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates this week, then proceed with caution. We track ongoing wage pressures in the US jobs data.

A fundamental shift in macro and foreign policy has driven recent market volatility. That comes on top of mega forces – structural shifts like artificial intelligence (AI) – that are shaping the outlook and can lead to varied outcomes over the medium term. We think that calls for emphasizing tactical views. We still see AI driving corporate earnings strength, but this scenario is becoming more uncertain. We stand ready to pivot – and see private markets playing a key role across horizons.

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Navigating historic uncertainty

US trade policy uncertainty index, 1960-2025

The chart shows that trade policy uncertainty has soared to its highest in at least 65 years, reflecting US tariff headlines.

Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Matteo Iacoviello/Haver Analytics, February 2025. Note: The Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) Index is based on automated text searches of the electronic archives of seven newspapers. The measure is calculated by counting the monthly frequency of articles discussing trade policy uncertainty (as a share of the total number of news articles) for each newspaper. The index is normalised to a value of 100 for a 1% article share.

We see a mega forces-driven economic transformation that could keep shifting the long-term trend. That limits conviction in long-term valuation signals because it’s difficult to determine what’s a fair valuation during an economic transformation, in our view. That long-term uncertainty is being compounded this year by near-term policy uncertainty: Trade policy uncertainty has soared to its highest in at least 65 years, reflecting US tariff headlines. See the chart. How to respond? We allocate a greater share of portfolio risk to our six- to 12-month tactical views, allowing us to be nimble. Our scenarios for positive and negative economic and market outcomes help us shift our views as some policy uncertainty abates. Our baseline scenario: US corporate profits stay strong and broaden alongside AI beneficiaries. Yet we’re ready to pivot – especially as we get more policy implementation details.

Over the medium term, we spread out our conviction across asset classes as economies undergo a transformation driven by mega forces such as AI. We think some of the most attractive opportunities are in private markets. While private market assets are not immune from the long-term uncertainty, we see many benefitting from the mega forces. Infrastructure equity, such as stakes in data centers, sits at the intersection of several mega forces, including today’s AI-driven investment boom. Private equity funds have struggled more than in the past due to higher interest rates. Yet as valuations have fallen, current or future funds could benefit. Private markets are complex, with high risk and volatility, and not suitable for all investors.

US equity conviction

The AI theme and strong earnings give us more tactical conviction in US stocks. That’s the case even as the run-up of US stocks to record highs has shined a spotlight on historically rich valuations by most gauges. Valuations, especially for tech, look as lofty as in the dot-com bubble or the 1920s peak based on some metrics, like the cyclically adjusted ratio of share price to 10-year average of corporate earnings, we find. Yet it’s harder to know what a reasonable valuation is during a time of transformation. Take concentration in the tech sector, where valuations tend to be higher, as investors chase the AI theme. Strongs earnings growth could also back valuations. We’re seeing that firsthand: Nvidia’s revenue has surged roughly sixfold in just two years, and still its valuation dipped as earnings growth outpaced the share surge, LSEG Datastream data show.

While US corporate strength is our base case for now, we have seen the outlook evolve suddenly in recent years. We stand ready to pivot given uncertainty because of the economic transformation and US policy now. We created our scenarios last year to help us navigate this volatile environment. While some of the incoming information on US policy has been noisy, we expect that to become a concrete signal to adapt to. How to build a portfolio that factors in unusually uncertain long-term signals and a volatile near-term environment? US equities would still be the largest portfolio allocation, in our view. Yet the overall allocation to US stocks would be less than benchmark public market exposures to make room for private markets.

Our bottom line

The AI theme and strong earnings keep us overweight US stocks tactically, even with high policy uncertainty. Over the long term, we see attractive opportunities in private markets that will be key to financing the transformation.

Market backdrop

US stocks lost steam last week, led by the tech sector. The S&P 500 slid about 1% to trim the year’s gains to 1.5%, partly on concerns about US tariffs. Nvidia’s shares fell sharply after its earnings results. AI-related shares have come under pressure from lingering investor worries about whether AI investment will pay off. Yet we think this is still the early phase of AI adoption and see room for the buildout winners to do well. Ten-year US Treasury yields fell sharply to two-month lows near 4.20%.

We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates this week. Weak economic growth and moderating inflation allow the ECB to cut rates closer to a neutral level that neither restricts or stimulates activity. Risks remain that could push inflation in either direction, so we see the ECB proceeding with caution after the March meeting. In the US, we watch labor data for February for signs of ongoing high wage pressures.

Week ahead

The chart shows that European equities are the best performing asset year to date among a selected group of assets, while the US dollar index is the worst.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Feb. 27, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.

March 3

Euro area flash inflation

March 5

China Caixin services PMI

March 6

European Central Bank policy decision; US trade data

March 7

US payrolls report

Read our past weekly commentaries here.

Big calls

Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, March 2025

Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, March 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.

Tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, March 2025

Legend Granular

Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this. It leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but it is creating more space for alpha. For example, the alpha opportunity in highly efficient DM equities markets historically has been low. That’s no longer the case, we think, thanks to greater volatility, macro uncertainty and dispersion of returns. The new regime puts a premium on insights and skill, in our view.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Euro-denominated tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, March 2025

Legend Granular

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, March 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Vivek Paul
Global Head of Portfolio Research – BlackRock Investment Institute
Devan Nathwani
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute

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Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.

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