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Market take
Weekly video_20250113
Wei Li
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
We think US equity gains stay strong. Yet an economic transformation and global policy changes could spur volatility.
That calls for outlining triggers for adjusting our views.
Title slide: Triggers to change our pro-risk view
1: Tracking US policy changes
First, we’re focusing on how US trade, fiscal and regulatory policy changes take shape.
In a market-friendly approach, rolling back banking regulation could boost economic growth and risk asset gains. Efforts to reduce deficits could encourage other countries to loosen fiscal policy.
Yet plans to extend tax cuts plus broad and large-scale tariffs could support market less by bolstering deficits and inflation.
2: Eagerly awaiting earnings
We’re also watching how investor sentiment could respond to corporate earnings results and lofty tech valuations.
We expect earnings growth to keep broadening beyond tech. Yet the “magnificent seven” are still expected to drive overall earnings.
3: Bond market blues
Finally, we’re monitoring vulnerabilities in public markets – including an already jittery bond market.
It’s unclear how well markets can absorb record US Treasury issuance that has helped drive term premium to its highest level in a decade.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
We see US equity performance cooling from its highs this year but still staying strong, while US Treasury yields will climb due to rising term premium.
That supports our overweight to US stocks and underweight to long-term Treasuries.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
We are pro-risk to start 2025. Yet we’re ready to evolve our view if policy shifts, corporate earnings and financial market cracks spell a deteriorating outlook.
US stocks slid and 10-year US Treasury yields climbed near 4.80% last week after a strong US jobs report. UK gilt yields jumped on fiscal outlook concerns.
We get US CPI this week. Robust wage growth and sticky core services inflation should keep broad inflation from falling to the Federal Reserve’s target, we think.
We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in US stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change. First, we’re watching policy, notably how US tariffs and fiscal policy shape up. Second, we watch whether investor risk appetite will sour due to corporate earnings and lofty tech valuations amid the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout. Third, we look for elevated vulnerabilities, like surging bond yields as markets price out rate cuts and corporate debt refinancing at higher interest rates.
Change in US 10-year Treasury yields through rate cutting episodes, 1984-2024
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Haver Analytics, January 2025. Note: The chart shows the change in 10-year Treasury yields through periods when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. The shaded area shows the range of those changes since 1984 and the dotted green line shows the average. The orange line shows the change in yields since the Fed’s cut in September 2024.
We upped our US equities overweight in December as we expected AI beneficiaries to broaden beyond tech given resilient growth and Fed rate cuts. We think US equity gains could roll on. Yet an economic transformation and global policy shifts could push markets and economies into a new scenario from our 2025 Outlook. We look through near-term noise but outline triggers for adjusting our views, by either dialing down risk or shifting our preferences. First, we’re tracking the impacts of global policy – especially US trade, fiscal and regulatory policy. Second, we gauge whether risk appetite will stay upbeat as earnings results for AI beneficiaries come in and given high tech valuations. Third, vulnerabilities like a sudden jump in bond yields could also shift our view. The unusual yield jump since the Fed started cutting rates underscores this is a very different environment. See the chart.
The first trigger to change our view is whether or not President-elect Donald Trump takes a market-friendly approach to achieve goals like improving growth and reducing budget deficits. In a market-friendly approach, rolling back financial regulation and cutting government spending could boost economic growth and risk assets. That, plus efforts to rebalance global trade and expand fiscal stimulus in countries where investment and consumer spending have lagged the US, may help address trade deficit worries. In a less market-friendly approach, plans to extend tax cuts alongside large-scale tariffs could deepen deficits and stoke inflation. More broad-based tariffs could strengthen the US dollar, fuel inflation and call for high-for-longer interest rates. This plan would clash with Trump’s calls for a weaker dollar to boost US manufacturing and his push for rate cuts. We look through noisy headlines around policy and focus on how policy changes take shape this year.
The second trigger: deteriorating investor sentiment due to earnings misses or lofty tech valuations. The “magnificent seven” of mostly tech companies are still expected to drive earnings this year as they lead the AI buildout. Their lead should narrow as resilient consumer spending and potential deregulation support earnings beyond tech. While earnings might surprise to the upside, any misses could renew investor concern over whether big AI capital spending will pay off and if high valuations are justified – even if we think valuations can’t be viewed through a historical lens as an economic transformation unfolds.
In our third trigger, we’re watching for elevated vulnerabilities in financial markets – including an already jittery bond market. We expect bond yields to climb further as investors demand more term premium for the risk of holding bonds. Term premium is rising from negative levels and is at its highest in a decade, LSEG Datastream data show. The surge in UK gilt yields shows how concerns about fiscal policy can drive term premium – and bond yields – higher. The refinancing of corporate debt at higher interest rates is another risk. It could challenge the business models of companies that assumed interest rates would remain low. But many companies have refinanced debt without defaulting since the pandemic given strong balance sheets.
We see US equity gains cooling from their highs this year but staying strong, while US Treasury yields climb. We stay overweight US stocks and underweight long-term Treasuries, yet we’re watching triggers to change our views.
US stocks fell more than 1% last week. Ten-year US Treasury yields climbed near 4.80%, to a 14-month high and near their 2023 peak partly due to a surprisingly strong US jobs report. The data suggest immigration is still making it possible to sustain larger job gains without adding to wage pressures. Yet wage gains are still strong enough for the Fed to keep policy rates higher for longer. UK 30-year gilts yields hit their highest in almost three decades on concerns about the UK fiscal path.
US CPI is in store this week. We watch for whether inflation stays sticky in line with the recent trend. Wage growth and core services inflation remain at a level inconsistent with overall inflation falling back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, in our view. Longer term, we think labor supply constraints like population aging should keep inflation sticky, preventing the Fed from cutting policy rates much below 4% – much higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Jan. 9, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point in the past 12 months, and the dots represent current 12-month returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
China trade data
US CPI; UK CPI
UK GDP
China total social financing
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, January 2025
Reasons | ||
---|---|---|
Tactical | Reasons | |
US equities | ReasonsWe see the AI buildout and adoption creating opportunities across sectors. We tap into beneficiaries outside the tech sector. Robust economic growth, broad earnings growth and a quality tilt underpin our conviction and overweight in US stocks versus other regions. We see valuations for big tech backed by strong earnings, and less lofty valuations for other sectors. | |
Japanese equities | ReasonsA brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the potential drag on earnings from a stronger yen is a risk. | |
Selective in fixed income | ReasonsPersistent deficits and sticky inflation in the US make us more positive on fixed income elsewhere, notably Europe. We are underweight long-term US Treasuries and like UK gilts instead. We also prefer European credit – both investment grade and high yield – over the US on cheaper valuations. | |
Strategic | Reasons | |
Infrastructure equity and private credit | ReasonsWe see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. We think private credit will earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns. | |
Fixed income granularity | ReasonsWe prefer short- and medium-term investment grade credit, which offers similar yields with less interest rate risk than long-dated credit. We also like short-term government bonds in the US and euro area and UK gilts overall. | |
Equity granularity | ReasonsWe favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten our outlook. | |
Comments | ||
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, January 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security. |
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, January 2025
Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this. It leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but it is creating more space for alpha. For example, the alpha opportunity in highly efficient DM equities markets historically has been low. That’s no longer the case, we think, thanks to greater volatility, macro uncertainty and dispersion of returns. The new regime puts a premium on insights and skill, in our view.
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, January 2025
Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
AssetEquities | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
Asset Europe ex UK | Tactical view | CommentaryWe are underweight relative to the US and Japan, which remain our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet geopolitical tensions, domestic political uncertainty, potential tariffs, and fading optimism about China’s stimulus could weigh on investor sentiment. | ||
AssetGermany | Tactical view | CommentaryWe are underweight. Valuations and earnings momentum offer modest support compared to peers, especially as ECB rate cuts ease financing conditions. Prolonged uncertainty over the next government, potential tariffs, and fading optimism about China’s stimulus could dampen sentiment. | ||
AssetFrance | Tactical view | CommentaryWe are underweight. The outcome of France’s parliamentary election and ongoing political uncertainty could weigh on business conditions for French companies. Yet, only a small share of the revenues and operations of major French firms is tied to domestic activity. | ||
AssetItaly | Tactical view | CommentaryWe are underweight. Valuations are supportive relative to peers, but past growth and earnings outperformance largely stemmed from significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023, which is unlikely to be sustained in the coming years. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, January 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security. |
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Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.