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A bumpy ride upwards for global yields
Market take
Weekly video_20250602
Michel Dilmanian
Portfolio Strategist, BlackRock Investment Institute
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
Long-term US Treasury yields are up sharply from April lows as policy shifts, like the budget bill, draw attention to US debt sustainability.
Title slide: A bumpy ride upwards for global yields
We view this as a return to past norms, as investors again demand more compensation for holding Treasuries. We see two reasons why.
1: Changing debt dynamics
During the pandemic, investors accepted abnormally low risk premia for Treasuries as ultra-low interest rates offered a sense of safety about ballooning government debt. That pulled down global yields, too.
But long-term yields have risen sharply since April as investors reassess what is a fair premium for the underlying risks.
2: Inflation-debt dynamics
In 2021, we flagged that inflation could spur higher policy rates, making debt repayments more expensive and deterring investors from long-term bonds. That’s now occurring.
In March, we estimated the US deficit-to-GDP ratio would land in the 5% to 7% range. We think policy developments since then could push near-term borrowing to the upper end of that range or past it. investors.
Yet we see an economic rule that limits how far policy can veer from the status quo: Keeping US debt sustainable relies on steady funding by foreign investors.
3: Our regional preferences
Euro area yields have been rising as geopolitical fragmentation causes governments to boost defense and infrastructure spending.
We prefer euro area government bonds to the US We also prefer European credit – both investment grade and high-yield – to the US on cheaper valuations.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
US Treasuries yields have risen since April. That’s a global story of normalizing term premium. We stay underweight long-term developed market bonds, preferring shorter-term bonds and euro area credit.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
Changing risk perceptions
Investors now want more compensation for the risk of holding long-term bonds. We see this as a return to past norms and keep our long-held underweight.
Market backdrop
US stocks rose nearly 2% last week, led by tech stocks. US 10-year Treasury yields fell but are 50 basis points above their April lows.
Week ahead
US jobs data this week will show how the labor market is holding up. The European Central Bank is set to cut policy rates as it eyes the impact of tariffs.
Long-term US bond yields jumped from April lows as policy developments, like the budget bill, draw focus to US debt sustainability. This has revived questions about the diversification role of Treasuries. We have long pointed to the low, even negative, risk premium investors accepted for Treasuries – and expected it to change. That’s now playing out, dragging up developed market government bond yields. We stay underweight long-term bonds but prefer the euro area to the US.
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Following the US
10-year US yields vs. ex-US developed market yields, 1990-2025
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream, May 2025. Notes: The chart shows US 10-year Treasury yields and an average of 10-year German, Japanese and UK government bond yields.
Ultra-low interest rates in the pandemic lulled investors into a sense of safety about ballooning government debt. They accepted lower term premium, or compensation for the risk of holding that debt over a long time. That pulled down global yields as well. See the chart. But long-term yields are up sharply since April as investors demand more term premium. We have long expected that. In 2021, we flagged that elevated government debt created a fragile equilibrium, with bonds vulnerable to changing investor perception of their risk. And we pointed to persistent inflation pressure from post-pandemic supply disruptions. Higher inflation, and thus higher policy rates along with any rise in term premium, boost debt servicing costs. We’re still underweight long-term developed market (DM) government bonds, but have a relative preference for the euro area and Japan over the US.
Our strongest conviction has been staying underweight long-term US Treasuries. We maintain that view as concerns about the deficit mount. In March, we estimated the US deficit-to-GDP ratio would land in the 5% to 7% range, based on external forecasts of the impact of proposed trade, fiscal and immigration policy. Since then, Moody’s cut the US top-notch credit rating and Congress is considering a budget bill that we think could push deficits to the upper end of that range – or beyond. We’re watching to see if these changes impact foreign investors and drive term premium even higher.
Global yields rising
In Japan, 30-year bond yields hit a record high in May, confirming our long-standing underweight. Japan’s central bank – historically the largest government bond buyer as part of policy easing to lift the economy out of deflation – has trimmed purchases as part of its policy normalisation. That has put pressure on long-term yields, and a recent long-term bond auction drew the weakest demand in a decade. This in turn prompted Japan’s Ministry of Finance to consider trimming long-term bond sales. If yields rise more, the government’s cost to service its debt – now twice the size of its economy – will also rise.
The UK is already rolling back long-term bond issuance amid lower demand and higher yields. Meanwhile, euro area yields have been rising as governments up defense and infrastructure investment. Yet we prefer euro area government bonds to the US They’re increasingly less correlated to fluctuations in US Treasuries, and a sluggish economy gives the European Central Bank more room to cut rates in the near term. For income, we prefer shorter-term government bonds and European credit – both investment grade and high-yield – over the US on cheaper valuations.
On equities, we flipped back to being pro-risk in April once it became clear that hard economic rules limit how far US policy can move from the status quo, such as how foreign investors fund US debt. Our US equity overweight relies on that rule, just as another rule – supply chains can’t rewire overnight without serious disruption – proved binding on trade policy. This overweight is grounded in the artificial intelligence mega force – reinforced by Nvidia’s earnings beat last week.
Our bottom line
US Treasury yields have jumped since April. That’s a global story of normalising term premium. We stay underweight long-term DM government bonds, preferring shorter-term bonds and euro area credit.
Market backdrop
US stocks gained nearly 2% last week, led by tech stocks after Nvidia beat earnings expectations. The S&P 500 was up nearly 22% from its April lows. Stocks got a boost during the week after a US trade court blocked most of the new US tariffs. But a federal appeals court later granted a stay on the decision – allowing the tariffs to stay in place until a final decision is reached. US 10-year Treasury yields edged down to 4.40% but are still 50 basis points above their April lows.
We’re watching this week’s US payroll data for May after job gains topped expectations and wage growth cooled in April. We’re tracking the impact of trade disruptions on hiring and how slowing labor force growth affects wage pressures. We see the European Central Bank cutting policy rates modestly but look for signs that it might cut more deeply if trade disruptions weigh on euro area growth.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of May 29, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
June 3
Flash euro area inflation; euro area unemployment data
June 5
European Central Bank policy decision
June 6
US payrolls
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Simon Blundell
Head of European Fundamental Fixed Income – BlackRock
Michel Dilmanian
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA Rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons.
Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited.
Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.