Skip to content
Welcome to the BlackRock site for financial intermediaries
Before you proceed, please take a moment to review and accept the Terms and Conditions below.
Financial Intermediaries
On this website, Intermediaries are investors that qualify as both a Professional Client and a Qualified Investor.
In summary, a person who can both be classified as a professional client under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (2014/65/EU, “MiFID”) and a qualified investor in accordance with the Prospectus Regulation (EU) 2017/1129) will generally need to meet one or more of the following requirements:
(1) An entity required to be authorised or regulated to operate in the financial markets. The following list includes all authorised entities carrying out the characteristic activities of the entities mentioned, whether authorised by an EEA State or a third country and whether or not authorised by reference to a directive:
(a) a credit institution;
(b) an investment firm;
(c) any other authorised or regulated financial institution;
(d) an insurance company;
(e) a collective investment scheme or the management company of such a scheme;
(f) a pension fund or the management company of a pension fund;
(g) a commodity or commodity derivatives dealer;
(h) a local;
(i) any other institutional investor;
(2) a large undertaking that meets two of the following size requirements on a company basis: (i) a balance sheet total of EUR 20,000,000; (ii) an annual net turnover of EUR 40,000,000; (iii) own funds of EUR 2,000,000;
(3) a national or regional government, a public body that manages public debt, a central bank, an international or supranational institution (such as the World Bank, the IMF, the ECB, the EIB) or another similar international organization;
(4) other institutional investors whose main activity is to invest in financial instruments, including entities dedicated to the securitisation of assets or other financing transactions;
(5) a natural person resident in an EEA State that permits the authorisation of natural persons as professional investors, who expressly asks to be treated as a professional client and a qualified investor and who meets at least two of the following criteria: (i) he/she has carried out transactions, in significant size, on securities markets at an average frequency of, at least, 10 per quarter over the previous four quarters before the application, (ii) the size of his/her financial instrument portfolio, defined as including cash deposits and financial instruments exceeds EUR 500,000, (iii) he/she works or has worked for at least one year in the financial sector in a professional position which requires knowledge of the transactions or services envisaged.
Please note that the above summary is provided for information purposes only. If you are uncertain as to whether you can both be classified as a professional client under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II and classed as a qualified investor under the Prospectus Regulation then you should seek independent advice.
Terms and conditions
Please read this page before proceeding, as it explains certain restrictions imposed by law on the distribution of this information and the countries in which our funds are authorised for sale. It is your responsibility to be aware of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.
Please note that you are required to read and accept the terms of our Privacy Policy before you are able to access our websites.
Once you have confirmed that you agree to the legal information in this document, and the Privacy Policy – by indicating your consent above – we will place a cookie on your computer to recognise you and prevent this page reappearing should you access this site, or other BlackRock sites, on future occasions. The cookie will expire after six months, or sooner should there be a material change to this important information.
By confirming that you have read this important information, you also:
(i) Agree that such information will apply to any subsequent access to the Individual investors (or Institutions / Intermediaries) section of this website by you, and that all such subsequent access will be subject to the disclaimers, risk warnings and other information set out herein; and
(ii) Warrant that no other person will access the Individual investors section of this website from the same computer and logon as you are currently using.
The offshore funds described in the following pages are administered and managed by companies within the BlackRock Group and can be marketed in certain jurisdictions only. It is your responsibility to be aware of the applicable laws and regulations of your country of residence. Further information is available in the Prospectus or other constitutional document for each fund.
This does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell shares in any of the funds referred to on this site, by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or distribution would be unlawful or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.
Specifically, the funds described are not available for distribution to or investment by US investors. The units/shares will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") and, except in a transaction which does not violate the Securities Act or any other applicable US securities laws (including without limitation any applicable law of any of the States of the USA) may not be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the USA or any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction or to or for the benefit of a US Person.
The funds described have not been, nor will they be, qualified for distribution to the public in Canada as no prospectus for these funds has been filed with any securities commission or regulatory authority in Canada or any province or territory thereof. This website is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed, as an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in Canada. No person resident in Canada for the purposes of the Income Tax Act (Canada) may purchase or accept a transfer of shares in the funds described unless he or she is eligible to do so under applicable Canadian or provincial laws.
Applications to invest in any fund referred to on this site, must only be made on the basis of the offer document relating to the specific investment (e.g. prospectus, simplified prospectus, key investor information document or other applicable terms and conditions).
As a result of money laundering regulations, additional documentation for identification purposes may be required when you make your investment. Details are contained in the relevant Prospectus or other constitutional document.
If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided please consult your financial or other professional adviser.
The information contained on this site is subject to copyright with all rights reserved. It must not be reproduced, copied or redistributed in whole or in part.
The information contained on this site is published in good faith but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. (“BNBV”) or by any person as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied on as such. BNBV shall have no liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use or reliance on the information provided including without limitation, any loss of profit or any other damage, direct or consequential. No information on this site constitutes investment, tax, legal or any other advice.
Where a claim is brought against BlackRock by a third party in relation to your use of this website, you hereby agree to fully reimburse BlackRock for all losses, costs, actions, proceedings, claims, damages, expenses (including reasonable legal costs and expenses), or liabilities, whatsoever suffered or incurred directly by BlackRock as a consequence of improper use of this website. Neither party should be liable to the other for any loss or damage which may be suffered by the other party due to any cause beyond the first party's reasonable control including without limitation any power failure.
You acknowledge and agree that it is your responsibility to keep secure and confidential any passwords that we issue to you and your authorised employees and not to let such password(s) become public knowledge. If any password(s) become known by someone other than you and your authorised employees, you must change those particular password(s) immediately using the function available for this purpose on the Website.
You may leave the BNBV website when you access certain links on this website. In so doing, you may be proceeding to the site of an organisation that is not regulated. BNBV has not examined any of these websites and does not assume any responsibility for the contents of such websites nor the services, products or items offered through such websites.
BNBV shall have no liability for any data transmission errors such as data loss or damage or alteration of any kind, including, but not limited to, any direct, indirect or consequential damage, arising out of the use of the services provided herein.
Risk Warnings
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.
Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
BlackRock has not considered the suitability of this investment against your individual needs and risk tolerance. The data displayed provides summary information. Investment should be made on the basis of the relevant Prospectus which is available from the manager.
For your protection, telephone calls and/or other electronic communications which result in, or are intended to result in, transactions will be recorded or saved.
Investors should read the offering documents for further details including the risk factors before making an investment.
For Investors in Denmark:
Investors should read the fund specific risks in the Key Investor Information Document and the Company’s Prospectus. Copies of all documentation can be obtained free of charge from offices of the paying agent at BlackRock (Netherlands) BV, Copenhagen Branch, Harbour House, Sundkrogsgade 21, 2100 København Ø, Denmark.
Please note that while some of the BlackRock funds are "ring-fenced", others form part of a single company and are not. For BlackRock funds that do not have segregated liability status, in the event of a single BlackRock fund being unable to meet liabilities attributable to that BlackRock fund out of the assets attributable to it, the excess may be met out of the assets attributable to the other BlackRock funds within the same company. We refer you to the prospectus or other relevant terms and conditions of each BlackRock fund for further information in this regard.
The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of BlackRock as a whole or any part thereof, nor do they constitute investment or any other advice.
Any research found on these pages has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purposes.
This site is operated and issued by BNBV which is authorised and regulated by the Autoriteit Financiële Markten («AFM»). You can gain access to the AFM website from the following link: www.afm.nl. BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is a company registered in the Netherlands, No. 17068311. Registered Office: Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. VAT No 007883250. General enquiries about this website should be sent to EMEAwebmaster@blackrock.com. This email address should not be used for any enquiries relating to investments.
©2024 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a trademark of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
High-for-longer shapes strategic view
Market take
Weekly video_20241118
Devan Nathwani
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
The US election result reinforces our expectation for persistent inflationary pressures and high-for-longer interest rates.
We evolve our strategic views on a horizon of five years and longer due to this outlook.
Title slide: High-for-longer shapes strategic view
1: All in on infrastructure
As we expected, private equity and real estate valuations have cooled from their recent peaks as financing costs rose with interest rates.
We see more attractive valuations and healthier deal activity in infrastructure equity assets. We also see mega forces benefiting infrastructure.
2: Staying dynamic strategically
We’re in a more volatile macro regime. President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda reinforces our expectations for persistent inflation in the medium term and for interest rates settling higher than pre-pandemic.
We remain dynamic with our strategic views.
3: Granularity in fixed income
We reaffirm our preference for short-term over long-term bonds in the US on a strategic and tactical horizon.
We expect long-term yields to rise as investors demand more compensation for the risk of holding them given sticky inflation, persistent fiscal deficits and more bond volatility.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
We upgrade growth private markets to neutral given our preference for infrastructure equity.
While the long-term outlook is uncertain, we’re more pro-risk on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon and lean into US equities.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
General disclosure: This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed are as of November 2024 and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks.
In the US and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution. In the European Economic Area (EEA): this is Issued by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is authorised and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Registered office Amstelplein 1, 1096 HA, Amsterdam, Tel: 020 – 549 5200, Tel: 31-20-549-5200. Trade Register No. 17068311 For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. In the UK and Non-European Economic Area (EEA) countries: this is Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: + 44 (0)20 7743 3000. Registered in England and Wales No. 02020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. Please refer to the Financial Conduct Authority website for a list of authorised activities conducted by BlackRock. In Italy, for information on investor rights and how to raise complaints please go to https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/investor-right available in Italian. In Switzerland, for qualified investors in Switzerland: This document is marketing material. Until 31 December 2021, this document shall be exclusively made available to, and directed at, qualified investors as defined in the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act of 23 June 2006 (“CISA”), as amended. From 1 January 2022, this document shall be exclusively made available to, and directed at, qualified investors as defined in Article 10 (3) of the CISA of 23 June 2006, as amended, at the exclusion of qualified investors with an opting-out pursuant to Art. 5 (1) of the Swiss Federal Act on Financial Services (FinSA). For information on art. 8 / 9 Financial Services Act (FinSA) and on your client segmentation under art. 4 FinSA, please see the following website: www.blackrock.com/finsa. For investors in Israel: BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is not licensed under Israel’s Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law, 5755-1995 (the “Advice Law”), nor does it carry insurance thereunder. In South Africa, please be advised that BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is an authorized financial services provider with the South African Financial Services Board, FSP No. 43288. In the DIFC this material can be distributed in and from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) by BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited — Dubai Branch which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). This material is only directed at 'Professional Clients’ and no other person should rely upon the information contained within it. Blackrock Advisors (UK) Limited - Dubai Branch is a DIFC Foreign Recognised Company registered with the DIFC Registrar of Companies (DIFC Registered Number 546), with its office at Unit 06/07, Level 1, Al Fattan Currency House, DIFC, PO Box 506661, Dubai, UAE, and is regulated by the DFSA to engage in the regulated activities of ‘Advising on Financial Products’ and ‘Arranging Deals in Investments’ in or from the DIFC, both of which are limited to units in a collective investment fund (DFSA Reference Number F000738). In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, issued in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) by BlackRock Saudi Arabia (BSA), authorised and regulated by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), License No. 18-192-30. Registered under the laws of KSA. Registered office: 7976 Salim Ibn Abi Bakr Shaikan St, 2223 West Umm Al Hamam District Riyadh, 12329 Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Tel: +966 11 838 3600. CR No, 1010479419. The information contained within is intended strictly for Sophisticated Investors as defined in the CMA Implementing Regulations. Neither the CMA or any other authority or regulator located in KSA has approved this information. In the United Arab Emirates this material is only intended for -natural Qualified Investor as defined by the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) Chairman Decision No. 3/R.M. of 2017 concerning Promoting and Introducing Regulations. Neither the DFSA or any other authority or regulator located in the GCC or MENA region has approved this information. In the State of Kuwait, those who meet the description of a Professional Client as defined under the Kuwait Capital Markets Law and its Executive Bylaws. In the Sultanate of Oman, to sophisticated institutions who have experience in investing in local and international securities, are financially solvent and have knowledge of the risks associated with investing in securities. In Qatar, for distribution with pre-selected institutional investors or high net worth investors. In the Kingdom of Bahrain, to Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) Category 1 or Category 2 licensed investment firms, CBB licensed banks or those who would meet the description of an Expert Investor or Accredited Investors as defined in the CBB Rulebook. The information contained in this document, does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer of, invitation, inducement or proposal to make an offer for, recommendation to apply for or an opinion or guidance on a financial product, service and/or strategy. In Singapore, this is issued by BlackRock (Singapore) Limited (Co. registration no. 200010143N). This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. In Hong Kong, this material is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In South Korea, this material is for distribution to the Qualified Professional Investors (as defined in the Financial Investment Services and Capital Market Act and its sub-regulations). In Taiwan, independently operated by BlackRock Investment Management (Taiwan) Limited. Address: 28F., No. 100, Songren Rd., Xinyi Dist., Taipei City 110, Taiwan. Tel: (02)23261600. In Japan, this is issued by BlackRock Japan. Co., Ltd. (Financial Instruments Business Operator: The Kanto Regional Financial Bureau. License No375, Association Memberships: Japan Investment Advisers Association, The Investment Trusts Association, Japan, Japan Securities Dealers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association) for Institutional Investors only. All strategies or products BLK Japan offer through the discretionary investment contracts or through investment trust funds do not guarantee the principal amount invested. The risks and costs of each strategy or product we offer cannot be indicated here because the financial instruments in which they are invested vary each strategy or product. In Australia, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975 AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL). The material provides general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. In New Zealand, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975, AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL) for the exclusive use of the recipient, who warrants by receipt of this material that they are a wholesale client as defined under the New Zealand Financial Advisers Act 2008. Refer to BIMAL’s Financial Services Guide on its website for more information. BIMAL is not licensed by a New Zealand regulator to provide ‘Financial Advice Service’ ‘Investment manager under an FMC offer’ or ‘Keeping, investing, administering, or managing money, securities, or investment portfolios on behalf of other persons’. BIMAL’s registration on the New Zealand register of financial service providers does not mean that BIMAL is subject to active regulation or oversight by a New Zealand regulator. In China, this material may not be distributed to individuals resident in the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”, for such purposes, excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) or entities registered in the PRC unless such parties have received all the required PRC government approvals to participate in any investment or receive any investment advisory or investment management services. For Other APAC Countries, this material is issued for Institutional Investors only (or professional/sophisticated /qualified investors, as such term may apply in local jurisdictions). In Latin America, no securities regulator within Latin America has confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx
©2024 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK is a trademark of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
High for longer
The US election result reinforces our expectation for persistent inflation pressures and high-for-longer interest rates. We evolve our strategic views.
Market backdrop
US stocks slipped last week from all-time highs as the post-election surge ran out of steam. US 10-year Treasury yields hit six-month highs.
Week ahead
Global flash PMIs for November will give clues on the current state of uneven global growth. Markets watch UK CPI after a second Bank of England rate cut.
We see a world shaped by supply, with structural forces set to keep inflation pressures persistent and interest rates high for longer. We favor infrastructure equity, like stakes in airports and data centers, in our strategic views as it could benefit from such forces. The impact of policy changes after the US election could reinforce geopolitical fragmentation and ongoing budget deficits. We stay cautious on long-term US Treasuries and expect yields to rise long term.
Paragraph-2,Image-1,Paragraph-3
Paragraph-4,Advance Static Table-1,Paragraph-5,Advance Static Table-2,Paragraph-6,Advance Static Table-3
Infrastructure stands out
Change in private market valuations, 2001-2024
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, October 2024, with data from NCREIF, EDHEC and LCD. Note: The chart shows the cumulative change in the standard measure of valuations across infrastructure equity, private equity and real estate. Infrastructure equity and private equity valuations are represented as enterprise value/EBITDA, and real estate valuation is represented as market value/net operating income.
The divergence in how private markets have reacted to higher interest rates has shaped our views on a strategic horizon of five years and longer. We had been overweight income private markets, like private credit, relative to growth assets for about two years. We expected higher rates and financing costs to boost returns for investors in private debt with floating interest rates. Now we go neutral income assets as spreads tighten, yet private markets stay a sizeable part of our strategic portfolios. Within equity-like growth private markets, private equity and real estate valuations have peaked after decades of falling financing costs. See the chart. We upgrade growth assets to neutral as valuations cool from financing costs rising with rates. We still like infrastructure equity as we see fewer signs of lofty valuations (orange line) and it looks set to benefit from mega forces, or structural shifts.
Mega forces are playing a bigger role in shaping markets and economies – and driving returns now and in the future. Some of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, such as large-scale tariffs, reinforce why we see persistent inflation in the medium term and interest rates staying above pre-pandemic levels. If implemented, those policies could reinforce geopolitical fragmentation and economic competition. Plans to reduce legal immigration could impact the labor market. And we expect persistent budget deficits – one factor we see pushing up long-term US Treasury yields.
Staying selective strategically
As mega forces collide, we get more dynamic – even in our strategic views. In addition to our evolving views on private markets in Q3, we stay positive on direct lending, or directly negotiated loans to small- and mid-sized firms, as the future of finance unfolds. Demand for private credit could rise as banks limit lending. But private markets are complex and not suitable for all investors. Valuations matter more over a strategic horizon. That’s why we prefer attractive valuations in emerging market (EM) stocks over developed markets (DMs). We favor EMs like India that sit at the crosscurrent of mega forces. We still like Japan within DM stocks and are neutral on DM overall given richer valuations. Our preference for short-term bonds and UK gilts keeps us overweight DM government bonds. We stay underweight long-term US Treasuries on a strategic horizon as we expect yields to rise over time. We see investors demanding more term premium, or compensation for the risk of holding them, given sticky inflation, persistent fiscal deficits and greater bond market volatility.
While the long-term outlook is uncertain, we’re more pro-risk on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon. That’s supported by a more favorable macro backdrop and upbeat investor sentiment given post-election clarity and hopes for deregulation. We think the energy, financial and tech sectors can benefit. We stay overweight US stocks and think the artificial intelligence theme can expand beyond the tech sector.
Our bottom line
We are in a world shaped by supply and mega forces. The US election result reinforces that view. We see infrastructure equity benefiting from mega forces as we update our strategic views (for professional investors).
Market backdrop
US stocks slipped last week after reaching new all-time highs, with tech shares leading the retreat. The S&P 500 is still up 23% this year and 1% since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. US 10-year Treasury yields climbed, notching new six-month highs above 4.5%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates given the economy’s strength. Market pricing of Fed rate cuts is now more in line with our view.
Global flash PMIs for November will give clues on the current state of uneven global growth, how the robust US economy is faring in Q4 and whether the euro area is showing more signs of life after stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP. Markets will also be watching UK CPI out this week. The Bank of England recently cut its policy rate for the second time this year on sharply slowing inflation and some concerns over the growth outlook.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Nov. 14, 2024. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
Nov. 20
UK CPI; Japan trade data
Nov. 21
US Philly Fed business index
Nov. 22
Global flash PMIs; Japan CPI
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Big calls
Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, November 2024
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | ||
| AI and US equities | We see the AI buildout and adoption creating opportunities across sectors. We get selective, moving toward beneficiaries outside the tech sector. Broad-based earnings growth and a quality tilt make us overweight US stocks overall. | |
| Japanese equities | A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the drag on earnings from a stronger yen and some mixed policy signals from the Bank of Japan are risks. | |
| Income in fixed income | The income cushion bonds provide has increased across the board in a higher rate environment. We like quality income in short-term credit. We’re neutral long-term US Treasuries. | |
| Strategic | ||
| Private markets | We see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. For income, we prefer direct lending given more attractive yields than in public credit. | |
| Fixed income granularity | We prefer intermediate credit, which offers similar yields with less interest rate risk than long-dated credit. We also like short-term government bonds, and UK long-term bonds. | |
| Equity granularity | We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten our outlook. | |
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, November 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2024
Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this. It leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but it is creating more space for alpha. For example, the alpha opportunity in highly efficient DM equities markets historically has been low. That’s no longer the case, we think, thanks to greater volatility, macro uncertainty and dispersion of returns. The new regime puts a premium on insights and skill, in our view.
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||||
| United States |  |
We are overweight given our positive view on the AI theme. Valuations for AI beneficiaries are supported as tech companies keep beating high earnings expectations. We think upbeat sentiment can broaden out. Falling inflation is easing pressure on corporate profit margins. | ||||
| Europe |  |
We are underweight relative to the US, Japan and the UK – our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious. | ||||
| UK | |
We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets. | ||||
| Japan | |
We are overweight. A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the drag on earnings from a stronger yen and some mixed policy signals from the Bank of Japan are risks. | ||||
| Emerging markets |  |
We are neutral. The growth and earnings outlook is mixed. We see valuations for India and Taiwan looking high. | ||||
| China |  |
We are modestly overweight. China’s fiscal stimulus is not yet enough to address the drags on economic growth, but we think stocks are at attractive valuations to DM shares. We stand ready to pivot. We are cautious long term given China’s structural challenges. | ||||
| Fixed income | ||||||
| Short US Treasuries | |
We are underweight. We don’t think the Fed will cut rates as sharply as markets expect. An aging workforce, persistent budget deficits and the impact of structural shifts like geopolitical fragmentation should keep inflation and policy rates higher over the medium term. | ||||
| Long US Treasuries | |
We are neutral. Markets are pricing in sharp Fed rate cuts and term premium is close to zero. We think yields will keep swinging in both directions on incoming data. We prefer intermediate maturities less vulnerable to investors demanding greater term premium. | ||||
| Global inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation and growth may matter more near term. | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political uncertainty remains a risk to fiscal sustainability. | ||||
| UK Gilts | |
We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy. | ||||
| Japan government bonds |  |
We are underweight. Stock returns look more attractive to us. We see some of the least attractive returns in JGBs. | ||||
| China government bonds | |
We are neutral. Bonds are supported by looser policy. Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper. | ||||
| US agency MBS | |
We are neutral. We see agency MBS as a high-quality exposure in a diversified bond allocation and prefer it to IG. | ||||
| Short-term IG credit | |
We are overweight. Short-term bonds better compensate for interest rate risk. We prefer Europe over the US | ||||
| Long-term IG credit | |
We are underweight. Spreads are tight, so we prefer taking risk in equities from a whole portfolio perspective. We prefer Europe over the US | ||||
| Global high yield | |
We are neutral. Spreads are tight, but the total income makes it more attractive than IG. We prefer Europe. | ||||
| Asia credit | |
We are neutral. We don’t find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive. | ||||
| Emerging market - hard currency | |
We are neutral. The asset class has performed well due to its quality, attractive yields and EM central bank rate cuts. We think those rate cuts may soon be paused. | ||||
| Emerging market - local currency | |
We are neutral. Yields have fallen closer to US Treasury yields, and EM central banks look to be turning more cautious after cutting policy rates sharply. | ||||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The statements on alpha do not consider fees. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Euro-denominated tactical granular views
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2024
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | ||||
| Europe ex UK | |
We are underweight relative to the US, Japan and the UK – our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious. | ||
| Germany | |
We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to peers, especially as global manufacturing activity bottoms out and ECB rate cuts ease financing conditions. | ||
| France | |
We are underweight given modestly supportive valuations. The result of France’s parliamentary election could impact business conditions for French companies. Yet only a small portion of the revenues and operations of major French companies are tied to domestic activity. | ||
| Italy | |
We are underweight. Valuations dynamics are supportive relative to peers, but recent growth and earnings outperformance seems largely due to significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023 that cannot be sustained over the next few years. | ||
| Spain | |
We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to other euro area stocks. The utilities sector looks set to benefit from an improving economic backdrop and advances in AI. | ||
| Netherlands | |
We are underweight. The Dutch stock markets' tilt to technology and semiconductors, a key beneficiary of higher demand for AI, is offset by relatively less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than their European peers. | ||
| Switzerland | |
We are underweight, in line with our broad European view. The earnings outlook has brightened, but valuations remain high versus other European markets. The index’s defensive tilt will likely be less supported as long as global risk appetite holds up, we think. | ||
| UK | |
We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets. | ||
| Fixed income | ||||
| Euro area government bonds | |
We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations, and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political uncertainty remains a risk to fiscal sustainability. | ||
| German bunds | |
We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates broadly in line with our expectations, and 10-year yields are off their highs. | ||
| French OATs | |
We are neutral. The EU has already warned France for breaching fiscal rules and had its sovereign credit rating downgraded earlier this year. Elevated political uncertainty, persistent budget deficits and a slower pace of structural reforms remain challenges. | ||
| Italian BTPs | |
We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its budget deficits and debt profile, also prompting a warning from the EU. Other domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields. | ||
| UK gilts | |
We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy. | ||
| Swiss government bonds | |
We are neutral. The Swiss National Bank has been cutting policy rates this year amid reduced inflationary pressure. But it is unlikely to cut rates much further from here. | ||
| European inflation-linked bonds | |
We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation may matter more near term. Short-term breakeven inflation rates fell further after recent inflation data, making euro area inflation-linked bonds less attractive. | ||
| European investment grade credit | |
We are neutral European investment grade credit, with a preference for short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We maintain our regional preference for European investment grade over the US given spreads are not as tight. | ||
| European high yield | |
We are overweight. We find the income potential attractive. We still prefer European high yield given its more appealing valuations, higher quality and lower duration than in the US Spreads compensate for risks of a potential pick-up in defaults, in our view. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, November 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Christian Olinger
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Devan Nathwani
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA Rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons.
Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited.
Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
The opinions expressed in this paper may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this paper are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents.
This paper may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this paper is at the sole discretion of the reader.
This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to anyone to invest in any BlackRock funds and has not been prepared in connection with any such offer.
© 2024 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, iSHARES, BUILD ON BLACKROCK and SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY logo are registered and unregistered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.
Explore more
About us
Products
Investment themes
Insights
ETFs & Indexing
© 2024 BlackRock, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
BIIM1124U/M-4033388