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Doing the math on US policy shifts
Market take
Weekly video_20250331
Nicholas Fawcett
Senior Economist, BlackRock Investment Institute
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
Major US policy shifts are exacerbating uncertainty and spurring policy responses globally.
We assess the possible macro and market impacts of US trade, immigration and fiscal policy. It’s difficult to make even near-term forecasts given the many moving parts: This week’s reciprocal tariffs are just one example. So we consider the range of outcomes.
Title slide: Doing the math on US policy shifts
1: Policy uncertainty a near-term risk
We think the average US effective tariff rate will settle near 10% – but it could take months to get there.
The longer uncertainty persists, the greater the risk that weakening sentiment hurts growth, in our view.
2: Trade and immigration policy impacts
Some external estimates see tariffs generating $300 billion in annual revenue. But they will likely push up on inflation and weigh on growth.
The US administration has also made it a priority to reduce net immigration. And a further slowdown in immigration could cut tax revenues, slow growth and push up on wages.
3: Fiscal policy to keep fiscal deficit large
Proposed US fiscal measures could boost growth. But external estimates also see them delivering persistent budget deficits and inflation pressures.
A continuation of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act could modestly boost growth and inflation but widen the fiscal deficit.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
What’s the potential combined impact of the policy mix? We expect higher inflation and long-term bond yields, and a fiscal deficit above 5% in 2030. So we stay underweight long-term US Treasuries, preferring short-term bonds.
We see a path where growth can hold up if the artificial intelligence boost continues and deregulation provides an additional boost.
Mega forces like the AI buildout can also support US equity strength, in our view. So we stay overweight and see policy uncertainty easing over the next six to 12 months.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
Sizing up the impact
Major US policy changes have upped uncertainty in a world of structural shifts. We see a path where growth holds up and stay tactically overweight US stocks.
Market backdrop
Global stocks slid last week after US auto tariffs were announced and ahead of additional tariff details on April 2. US 10-year yields were flat at 4.25%.
Week ahead
The US administration is due to release details on “reciprocal” tariffs this week. We think the average US effective tariff rate will ultimately settle near 10%.
Major US policy shifts are exacerbating uncertainty and spurring policy responses globally, especially in Europe and Canada. It’s hard to gauge the ultimate macro and market impact given the various moving parts – with reciprocal tariffs a case in point this week. Yet when assessing possible impacts across policies, we see a path where artificial intelligence investment and potential deregulation could help boost economic growth. We stay overweight US stocks over six to 12 months.
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Broadening uncertainty
US economic policy uncertainty index, 1990-2025
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from Economic Policy Uncertainty/Haver Analytics, March 2025. Note: The economic policy uncertainty index combines automated text searches of newspaper archives (measuring the frequency of policy-related uncertainty articles), the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire and disagreement among professional economic forecasters. The index is normalised with higher values indicating greater uncertainty. See https://www.policyuncertainty.com/methodology.html for more.
Long-standing global trade and foreign policy frameworks are being upended as the US has raised tariff rates and catalyzed big policy responses elsewhere. Current levies on steel and aluminum, auto import tariffs revealed last week and details on “reciprocal” tariffs due April 2 are in focus now. We think the average US effective tariff rate will settle near 10% – but it could take months to get there. Until then, we expect multiple changes to the mix of tariff rates. Investors have not faced this kind of trade uncertainty for decades and it has morphed into elevated economic uncertainty. See the chart. Unusually high policy uncertainty is driving a wedge between data based on sentiment surveys and data based on actual activity: US consumer confidence hit a four-year low in March, even as activity holds up.
We think policy uncertainty will ease over the next year. Yet prolonged uncertainty increases the risk weakening sentiment hurts growth. At this stage, it’s hard to forecast the policy outcomes with any confidence given many moving parts and competing objectives. We think it’s more useful to assess the orders of magnitudes across different policy outcomes and how they could be reconciled: We assess growth, inflation and deficit impacts across trade, fiscal and immigration policy using a range of external estimates. On trade, we think tariffs are set to be a permanent feature of US trade policy and a tool to raise revenue. While some external estimates see $300 billion in annual revenue from tariffs, they will likely push up on inflation and weigh on growth. The government is also aiming to cut costs to save around $1 trillion per year but nearing that would mean deep cuts to major federal programs. External estimates project only up to $300 billion of savings each year.
Assessing the policy mix
Yet those revenue gains could be offset by proposed policies that imply lower government revenues. The US administration has proposed a continuation of the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act that set out tax cuts for individuals and businesses and is due to expire in 2026. A continuation would widen the fiscal deficit by up to $450 billion, the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Taxation Committee project, while also providing a small boost to growth and inflation. The administration has also made it a priority to reduce net immigration. If immigration slows back to pre-pandemic levels, currently elevated wage pressures would likely persist, GDP growth would slow slightly, and tax revenues would fall a little.
We expect this policy mix to reinforce persistent inflation pressures and higher long-term yields – and leave the fiscal deficit above 5% looking out to 2030. What matters for risk assets amid higher rates: whether growth can hold up. We see a path where it could if the AI growth boost of the past two years persists and if deregulation spurs an additional boost. We think US stocks can resume their global leadership due to resilient growth and mega forces – like AI. We stay underweight long-term US Treasuries, favoring short- and medium-term bonds.
Our bottom line
US policy shifts have conflicting economic impacts. We see a path for resilient growth and mega forces to support US equities, keeping us overweight tactically. We stay underweight long-term bonds, preferring shorter-term bonds.
Market backdrop
The S&P 500 slid 1.5% last week before the April 2 US tariff announcement. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell more than 1% last week, in part reflecting the news of US tariffs being levied on global auto imports. But Europe is still outperforming this year, with gains of nearly 7% compared with the S&P 500’s 5% drop. US 10-year Treasury yields ended the week flat at 4.25%, falling back from one-month highs after soft US consumer spending data for February.
This week all eyes are on the US administration’s planned April 2 date to release more details about “reciprocal” US tariffs that match many of those imposed on US products by other countries. The much higher rates currently planned for Mexican and Canadian imports and on autos globally could be cut after negotiations, while new ones could be introduced elsewhere. We think the average US effective tariff rate will ultimately settle near 10%, the highest since the 1940s.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of March 27, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
April 1
Japan Tankan business condition survey; euro area flash inflation
April 2
Additional US tariff details
April 3
China Caixin services PMI; US trade data
April 4
US payrolls data
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Glenn Purves
Global Head of Macro – BlackRock Investment Institute
Nicholas Fawcett
Senior Economist – BlackRock Investment Institute
This material is for distribution to Professional Clients (as defined by the FCA Rules) and should not be relied upon by any other persons.
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Sources: Bloomberg unless otherwise specified.
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