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Market take
Weekly video_20241014
Ben Powell
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
The recent surge in Chinese equities shows the benefits of investing in global stocks.
Title slide: Our conviction in global stocks
1: The case for going global
We still like US stocks and the broad AI theme as corporate earnings growth expands beyond tech. Yet valuation concerns can drive market volatility.
This calls for adding global exposure where we see attractive relative valuations and where catalysts emerge. But selectivity is key.
2: Seizing opportunities
Signals for major fiscal policy stimulus on the way in China gave us room to turn modestly overweight Chinese stocks. That doesn’t change the long-term, structural challenges we are concerned about.
We stay overweight Japanese stocks. The macro outlook is brightening and corporate reforms are driving improved corporate earnings and shareholder returns.
We are overweight UK stocks but have less conviction as the economy stagnates and heading into the new government’s budget announcement.
3: Signposts for change
We lean into risk yet monitor signposts that could cause market volatility, such as escalating geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over the US presidential election.
We see mega forces driving regional opportunities and risks that span beyond the very near term.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
We stay overweight US stocks as the artificial intelligence theme broadens out.
Outside the US, we lean into high-conviction ideas, such as in Japanese and Chinese stocks.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
We see opportunities in global stocks trading at attractive relative valuations with potential catalysts for price appreciation – like in China and Japan.
US stocks hit all-time highs. US 10-year yields rose further after the US core CPI data prompted markets to trim expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
This week, we expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. We think it has more room to cut rates than the Fed because it tightened policy more.
China’s share surge shows the upside of keying on opportunities in global stocks when clear catalysts emerge. We keep our US equity overweight on the artificial intelligence (AI) theme broadening. Outside the US, we favor markets where we have high conviction. We’re overweight Japanese stocks on a solid macro outlook and corporate reforms. We stay overweight UK stocks with less conviction. We upgrade UK gilts and see room for sharper policy rate cuts than markets expect.
Dispersion in global ex-US 12-month forward valuations, 2003-2024
It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Indexes are unmanaged and index performance does not account for fees. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, MSCI, with data from LSEG Datastream, October 2024. Notes: The chart shows the dispersion of non-US equity valuations, using 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratios. The dispersion score takes the normalised average of the standard deviation, interquartile and interdecile ranges of the valuations. Index proxies: MSCI developed and emerging market regional indexes, excluding Ireland, Greece and Peru.
China is the latest example of how cheap valuations can turn into a stock market rally once a catalyst emerges. Chinese shares have surged since the September politburo meeting on hopes that major fiscal stimulus may be on the way. A lack of details so far has disappointed some investors, so we eye policy announcements for more clarity. This potential exists elsewhere, waiting for a catalyst to give a spark, we think. But selectivity is key. We see a widening gap in economic performance and equity valuations across regions – a function of a more volatile macro backdrop and uneven restart coming out of the pandemic. See the chart. We still like US stocks and the broad AI theme as corporate earnings growth expands beyond tech. Yet fears over stretched valuations can drive brief selloffs. This calls for considering global exposure where we see cheap valuations and potential catalysts.
Staying nimble allows us to seize on opportunities in global equities when catalysts emerge. China’s signal on policy stimulus prompted us to go modestly overweight, especially given depressed valuations. Details have been scant, so we could change our view if future announcements disappoint. We still think China faces long-term, structural challenges – like economic and geopolitical competition with the West, government debt and population aging. We have stayed overweight Japan stocks on a sunnier macro backdrop and corporate reforms driving strong earnings and shareholder returns. We trimmed our overweight in August due to the potential drag on earnings from a stronger yen and Bank of Japan policy missteps – yet we stay positive.
Even in regions where the growth outlook is more challenging, we see selective investment opportunities. With 11% gains this year, European stocks have lagged major markets – yet European banks have surged 31% and we still like the sector as we have since the start of 2024. We have less conviction in UK stocks on a soft economy and heading into the new government’s budget announcement, yet we stay overweight for now. We go overweight UK gilts as we see the Bank of England having to cut policy rates more than markets are pricing given the soft economy.
We lean into risk yet monitor signposts that could cause us to change our views. Geopolitical risk is elevated as tensions flare in the Middle East. Regional escalation could drive oil prices higher, highlighting this is a world shaped by supply constraints. We have seen oil price spikes drive bond yields higher, showing long-term bonds still aren’t providing reliable portfolio diversification, in our view. This makes quality key in fixed income, we think. The US election will have global ramifications, especially for key trade partners like Mexico. Yet mega forces, structural shifts impacting returns now and in the future, are driving opportunities beyond the near-term risks. For example, the rewiring of supply chains is benefiting multi-aligned trading partners like Vietnam and Indonesia, both seeing a significant increase in trade and investment flows.
We stay nimble to seize high-conviction global opportunities. We recently turned modestly overweight Chinese equities and stay overweight Japanese and UK equities. We up UK gilts to overweight and stay cautious on US Treasuries.
US stocks hit all-time highs, with tech shares leading gains, as the Q3 earnings season kicked off. US 10-year Treasury yields climbed further to their highest since July near 4.10%, up about 50 basis points in the past month. US core inflation topped expectations in September, showing sticky services inflation and leading markets to trim expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. China onshore shares fell 3% last week, forfeiting some recent gains as investors eye fiscal stimulus details.
We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates at its policy meeting this week. September core inflation was below ECB projections, indicating inflation is still on track to hit the central bank’s 2% target. We think the euro area’s substantially weaker growth and employment indicators will push the ECB to cut rates again in October. The ECB will likely remain focused on incoming data but it has more room to cut than the Fed because it tightened policy more, in our view.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Oct. 10, 2024. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
China trade data
UK employment data
UK CPI
ECB policy decision; Philly Fed business index; Japan trade data
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, October 2024
Reasons | ||
---|---|---|
Tactical | ||
AI and US equities | We see the AI buildout and adoption creating opportunities across sectors. We get selective, moving toward beneficiaries outside the tech sector. Broad-based earnings growth and a quality tilt make us overweight US stocks overall. | |
Japanese equities | A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the drag on earnings from a stronger yen and some mixed policy signals from the Bank of Japan are risks. | |
Income in fixed income | The income cushion bonds provide has increased across the board in a higher rate environment. We like quality income in short-term credit. We’re neutral long-term US Treasuries. | |
Strategic | ||
Private credit | We think private credit is going to earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns relative to public credit risk. | |
Fixed income granularity | We prefer intermediate credit, which offers similar yields with less interest rate risk than long-dated credit. We also like short-term government bonds, and UK long-term bonds. | |
Equity granularity | We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten our outlook. |
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, October 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, October 2024
Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this. It leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but it is creating more space for alpha. For example, the alpha opportunity in highly efficient DM equities markets historically has been low. That’s no longer the case, we think, thanks to greater volatility, macro uncertainty and dispersion of returns. The new regime puts a premium on insights and skill, in our view.
Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Equities | ||||||
United States | We are overweight given our positive view on the AI theme. Valuations for AI beneficiaries are supported as tech companies keep beating high earnings expectations. We think upbeat sentiment can broaden out. Falling inflation is easing pressure on corporate profit margins. | |||||
Europe | We are underweight relative to the US, Japan and the UK – our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious. | |||||
UK | We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets. | |||||
Japan | We are overweight. A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the drag on earnings from a stronger yen and some mixed policy signals from the Bank of Japan are risks. | |||||
Emerging markets | We are neutral. The growth and earnings outlook is mixed. We see valuations for India and Taiwan looking high. | |||||
China | We are modestly overweight. Major fiscal stimulus may be coming and prompt investors to step in given Chinese stocks are at a deep discount to DM shares. Yet we stay ready to pivot. We are cautious long term given China’s structural challenges. | |||||
Fixed income | ||||||
Short US Treasuries | We are underweight. We don’t think the Fed will cut rates as sharply as markets expect. An aging workforce, persistent budget deficits and the impact of structural shifts like geopolitical fragmentation should keep inflation and policy rates higher over the medium term. | |||||
Long US Treasuries | We are neutral. Markets are pricing in sharp Fed rate cuts and term premium is close to zero. We think yields will keep swinging in both directions on incoming data. We prefer intermediate maturities less vulnerable to investors demanding greater term premium. | |||||
Global inflation-linked bonds | We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation and growth may matter more near term. | |||||
Euro area government bonds | We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political uncertainty remains a risk to fiscal sustainability. | |||||
UK Gilts | We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy. | |||||
Japan government bonds | We are underweight. Stock returns look more attractive to us. We see some of the least attractive returns in JGBs. | |||||
China government bonds | We are neutral. Bonds are supported by looser policy. Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper. | |||||
US agency MBS | We are neutral. We see agency MBS as a high-quality exposure in a diversified bond allocation and prefer it to IG. | |||||
Short-term IG credit | We are overweight. Short-term bonds better compensate for interest rate risk. We prefer Europe over the US | |||||
Long-term IG credit | We are underweight. Spreads are tight, so we prefer taking risk in equities from a whole portfolio perspective. We prefer Europe over the US | |||||
Global high yield | We are neutral. Spreads are tight, but the total income makes it more attractive than IG. We prefer Europe. | |||||
Asia credit | We are neutral. We don’t find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive. | |||||
Emerging market - hard currency | We are neutral. The asset class has performed well due to its quality, attractive yields and EM central bank rate cuts. We think those rate cuts may soon be paused. | |||||
Emerging market - local currency | We are neutral. Yields have fallen closer to US Treasury yields, and EM central banks look to be turning more cautious after cutting policy rates sharply. |
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The statements on alpha do not consider fees. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, October 2024
Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Equities | ||||
Europe ex UK | We are underweight relative to the US, Japan and the UK – our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious. | |||
Germany | We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to peers, especially as global manufacturing activity bottoms out and ECB rate cuts ease financing conditions. | |||
France | We are underweight given modestly supportive valuations. The result of France’s parliamentary election could impact business conditions for French companies. Yet only a small portion of the revenues and operations of major French companies are tied to domestic activity. | |||
Italy | We are underweight. Valuations dynamics are supportive relative to peers, but recent growth and earnings outperformance seems largely due to significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023 that cannot be sustained over the next few years. | |||
Spain | We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to other euro area stocks. The utilities sector looks set to benefit from an improving economic backdrop and advances in AI. | |||
Netherlands | We are underweight. The Dutch stock markets' tilt to technology and semiconductors, a key beneficiary of higher demand for AI, is offset by relatively less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than their European peers. | |||
Switzerland | We are underweight, in line with our broad European view. The earnings outlook has brightened, but valuations remain high versus other European markets. The index’s defensive tilt will likely be less supported as long as global risk appetite holds up, we think. | |||
UK | We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets. | |||
Fixed income | ||||
Euro area government bonds | We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations, and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political uncertainty remains a risk to fiscal sustainability. | |||
German bunds | We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates broadly in line with our expectations, and 10-year yields are off their highs. | |||
French OATs | We are neutral. The EU has already warned France for breaching fiscal rules and had its sovereign credit rating downgraded earlier this year. Elevated political uncertainty, persistent budget deficits and a slower pace of structural reforms remain challenges. | |||
Italian BTPs | We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its budget deficits and debt profile, also prompting a warning from the EU. Other domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields. | |||
UK gilts | We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy. | |||
Swiss government bonds | We are neutral. The Swiss National Bank cut policy rates twice this year amid reduced inflationary pressure. But it is unlikely to cut rates much further from here. | |||
European inflation-linked bonds | We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation may matter more near term. Short-term breakeven inflation rates fell further after recent inflation data, making euro area inflation-linked bonds less attractive. | |||
European investment grade credit | We are neutral European investment grade credit, with a preference for short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We maintain our regional preference for European investment grade over the US given spreads are not as tight. | |||
European high yield | We are overweight. We find the income potential attractive. We still prefer European high yield given its more appealing valuations, higher quality and lower duration than in the US Spreads compensate for risks of a potential pick-up in defaults, in our view. |
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, October 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.
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