MARKET INSIGHTS

Weekly market commentary

High-for-longer shapes strategic view

­Market take

Weekly video_20241118

Devan Nathwani

Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take 

Camera frame

The US election result reinforces our expectation for persistent inflationary pressures and high-for-longer interest rates.

We evolve our strategic views on a horizon of five years and longer due to this outlook.

Title slide: High-for-longer shapes strategic view 

1: All in on infrastructure

As we expected, private equity and real estate valuations have cooled from their recent peaks as financing costs rose with interest rates.

We see more attractive valuations and healthier deal activity in infrastructure equity assets. We also see mega forces benefiting infrastructure. 

2: Staying dynamic strategically

We’re in a more volatile macro regime. President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda reinforces our expectations for persistent inflation in the medium term and for interest rates settling higher than pre-pandemic.

We remain dynamic with our strategic views.

3: Granularity in fixed income

We reaffirm our preference for short-term over long-term bonds in the US on a strategic and tactical horizon.

We expect long-term yields to rise as investors demand more compensation for the risk of holding them given sticky inflation, persistent fiscal deficits and more bond volatility.

Outro: Here’s our Market take

We upgrade growth private markets to neutral given our preference for infrastructure equity.

While the long-term outlook is uncertain, we’re more pro-risk on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon and lean into US equities.

Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary

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High for longer

The US election result reinforces our expectation for persistent inflation pressures and high-for-longer interest rates. We evolve our strategic views.

Market backdrop

US stocks slipped last week from all-time highs as the post-election surge ran out of steam. US 10-year Treasury yields hit six-month highs.

Week ahead

Global flash PMIs for November will give clues on the current state of uneven global growth. Markets watch UK CPI after a second Bank of England rate cut.

We see a world shaped by supply, with structural forces set to keep inflation pressures persistent and interest rates high for longer. We favor infrastructure equity, like stakes in airports and data centers, in our strategic views as it could benefit from such forces. The impact of policy changes after the US election could reinforce geopolitical fragmentation and ongoing budget deficits. We stay cautious on long-term US Treasuries and expect yields to rise long term.

Market commentary Asset class views
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Infrastructure stands out

Change in private market valuations, 2001-2024

The chart shows that within private markets, real estate and private equity valuations have risen up while infrastructure equity has kept steady.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, October 2024, with data from NCREIF, EDHEC and LCD. Note: The chart shows the cumulative change in the standard measure of valuations across infrastructure equity, private equity and real estate. Infrastructure equity and private equity valuations are represented as enterprise value/EBITDA, and real estate valuation is represented as market value/net operating income.

The divergence in how private markets have reacted to higher interest rates has shaped our views on a strategic horizon of five years and longer. We had been overweight income private markets, like private credit, relative to growth assets for about two years. We expected higher rates and financing costs to boost returns for investors in private debt with floating interest rates. Now we go neutral income assets as spreads tighten, yet private markets stay a sizeable part of our strategic portfolios. Within equity-like growth private markets, private equity and real estate valuations have peaked after decades of falling financing costs. See the chart. We upgrade growth assets to neutral as valuations cool from financing costs rising with rates. We still like infrastructure equity as we see fewer signs of lofty valuations (orange line) and it looks set to benefit from mega forces, or structural shifts.

Mega forces are playing a bigger role in shaping markets and economies – and driving returns now and in the future. Some of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, such as large-scale tariffs, reinforce why we see persistent inflation in the medium term and interest rates staying above pre-pandemic levels. If implemented, those policies could reinforce geopolitical fragmentation and economic competition. Plans to reduce legal immigration could impact the labor market. And we expect persistent budget deficits – one factor we see pushing up long-term US Treasury yields.

Staying selective strategically

As mega forces collide, we get more dynamic – even in our strategic views. In addition to our evolving views on private markets in Q3, we stay positive on direct lending, or directly negotiated loans to small- and mid-sized firms, as the future of finance unfolds. Demand for private credit could rise as banks limit lending. But private markets are complex and not suitable for all investors. Valuations matter more over a strategic horizon. That’s why we prefer attractive valuations in emerging market (EM) stocks over developed markets (DMs). We favor EMs like India that sit at the crosscurrent of mega forces. We still like Japan within DM stocks and are neutral on DM overall given richer valuations. Our preference for short-term bonds and UK gilts keeps us overweight DM government bonds. We stay underweight long-term US Treasuries on a strategic horizon as we expect yields to rise over time. We see investors demanding more term premium, or compensation for the risk of holding them, given sticky inflation, persistent fiscal deficits and greater bond market volatility.

While the long-term outlook is uncertain, we’re more pro-risk on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon. That’s supported by a more favorable macro backdrop and upbeat investor sentiment given post-election clarity and hopes for deregulation. We think the energy, financial and tech sectors can benefit. We stay overweight US stocks and think the artificial intelligence theme can expand beyond the tech sector.

Our bottom line

We are in a world shaped by supply and mega forces. The US election result reinforces that view. We see infrastructure equity benefiting from mega forces as we update our strategic views (for professional investors). 

Market backdrop

US stocks slipped last week after reaching new all-time highs, with tech shares leading the retreat. The S&P 500 is still up 23% this year and 1% since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. US 10-year Treasury yields climbed, notching new six-month highs above 4.5%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates given the economy’s strength. Market pricing of Fed rate cuts is now more in line with our view.

Global flash PMIs for November will give clues on the current state of uneven global growth, how the robust US economy is faring in Q4 and whether the euro area is showing more signs of life after stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP. Markets will also be watching UK CPI out this week. The Bank of England recently cut its policy rate for the second time this year on sharply slowing inflation and some concerns over the growth outlook.

Week ahead

The chart shows that US equities are the best performing assets year-to-date among a selected group of assets, while Brent crude is the worst.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of Nov. 14, 2024. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.

Nov. 20

UK CPI; Japan trade data

Nov. 21

US Philly Fed business index

Nov. 22

Global flash PMIs; Japan CPI

Read our past weekly commentaries here.

Big calls

Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, November 2024

  Reasons
Tactical  
AI and US equities We see the AI buildout and adoption creating opportunities across sectors. We get selective, moving toward beneficiaries outside the tech sector. Broad-based earnings growth and a quality tilt make us overweight US stocks overall.
Japanese equities A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the drag on earnings from a stronger yen and some mixed policy signals from the Bank of Japan are risks.
Income in fixed income The income cushion bonds provide has increased across the board in a higher rate environment. We like quality income in short-term credit. We’re neutral long-term US Treasuries.
Strategic  
Private markets We see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. For income, we prefer direct lending given more attractive yields than in public credit.
Fixed income granularity We prefer intermediate credit, which offers similar yields with less interest rate risk than long-dated credit. We also like short-term government bonds, and UK long-term bonds.
Equity granularity We favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten our outlook.

Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, November 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security.

Tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2024

Legend Granular

Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this. It leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but it is creating more space for alpha. For example, the alpha opportunity in highly efficient DM equities markets historically has been low. That’s no longer the case, we think, thanks to greater volatility, macro uncertainty and dispersion of returns. The new regime puts a premium on insights and skill, in our view.

Asset   Tactical view Commentary
Equities      
United States United States: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight given our positive view on the AI theme. Valuations for AI beneficiaries are supported as tech companies keep beating high earnings expectations. We think upbeat sentiment can broaden out. Falling inflation is easing pressure on corporate profit margins.
Europe   Europe: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight relative to the US, Japan and the UK – our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious.
UK   UK: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets.
Japan   Japan: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. A brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the drag on earnings from a stronger yen and some mixed policy signals from the Bank of Japan are risks.
Emerging markets   Emerging markets: tactical Neutral We are neutral. The growth and earnings outlook is mixed. We see valuations for India and Taiwan looking high.
China   China: tactical Overweight +1 We are modestly overweight. China’s fiscal stimulus is not yet enough to address the drags on economic growth, but we think stocks are at attractive valuations to DM shares. We stand ready to pivot. We are cautious long term given China’s structural challenges.
Fixed income      
Short US Treasuries   Short US Treasuries: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. We don’t think the Fed will cut rates as sharply as markets expect. An aging workforce, persistent budget deficits and the impact of structural shifts like geopolitical fragmentation should keep inflation and policy rates higher over the medium term.
Long US Treasuries   Long US Treasuries: Neutral We are neutral. Markets are pricing in sharp Fed rate cuts and term premium is close to zero. We think yields will keep swinging in both directions on incoming data. We prefer intermediate maturities less vulnerable to investors demanding greater term premium.
Global inflation-linked bonds Global inflation-linked bonds : Neutral We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation and growth may matter more near term.
Euro area government bonds European bonds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political uncertainty remains a risk to fiscal sustainability.
UK Gilts UK gilts: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy.
Japan government bonds Japan government bonds: tactical Underweight -2 We are underweight. Stock returns look more attractive to us. We see some of the least attractive returns in JGBs.
China government bonds China government bonds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Bonds are supported by looser policy. Yet we find yields more attractive in short-term DM paper.
US agency MBS US agency MBS: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We see agency MBS as a high-quality exposure in a diversified bond allocation and prefer it to IG.
Short-term IG credit Short-term IG credit: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Short-term bonds better compensate for interest rate risk. We prefer Europe over the US
Long-term IG credit Long-term IG credit: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. Spreads are tight, so we prefer taking risk in equities from a whole portfolio perspective. We prefer Europe over the US
Global high yield Global high yield: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Spreads are tight, but the total income makes it more attractive than IG. We prefer Europe.
Asia credit Asia credit: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We don’t find valuations compelling enough to turn more positive.
Emerging market - hard currency Emerging market-hard currency: tactical Neutral We are neutral. The asset class has performed well due to its quality, attractive yields and EM central bank rate cuts. We think those rate cuts may soon be paused.
Emerging market - local currency Emerging market-local currency: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Yields have fallen closer to US Treasury yields, and EM central banks look to be turning more cautious after cutting policy rates sharply.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The statements on alpha do not consider fees. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Euro-denominated tactical granular views

Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, November 2024

Legend Granular

Asset Tactical view Commentary
Equities    
 Europe ex UK Europe ex-UK: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight relative to the US, Japan and the UK – our preferred markets. Valuations are fair. A growth pickup and European Central Bank rate cuts support a modest earnings recovery. Yet political uncertainty could keep investors cautious.
Germany Germany: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to peers, especially as global manufacturing activity bottoms out and ECB rate cuts ease financing conditions.
France France: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight given modestly supportive valuations. The result of France’s parliamentary election could impact business conditions for French companies. Yet only a small portion of the revenues and operations of major French companies are tied to domestic activity.
Italy Italy: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. Valuations dynamics are supportive relative to peers, but recent growth and earnings outperformance seems largely due to significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023 that cannot be sustained over the next few years.
Spain Spain: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Valuations and earnings momentum are supportive relative to other euro area stocks. The utilities sector looks set to benefit from an improving economic backdrop and advances in AI.
Netherlands Netherlands: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight. The Dutch stock markets' tilt to technology and semiconductors, a key beneficiary of higher demand for AI, is offset by relatively less favorable valuations and a weaker earnings outlook than their European peers.
Switzerland Switzerland: tactical Underweight -1 We are underweight, in line with our broad European view. The earnings outlook has brightened, but valuations remain high versus other European markets. The index’s defensive tilt will likely be less supported as long as global risk appetite holds up, we think.
UK UK: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Political stability and a growth pickup could improve investor sentiment, lifting the UK's low valuation relative to other DM stock markets.
Fixed income    
Euro area government bonds Euro area government bonds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates in line with our expectations, and 10-year yields are off their highs. Political uncertainty remains a risk to fiscal sustainability.
German bunds German bunds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. Market pricing reflects policy rates broadly in line with our expectations, and 10-year yields are off their highs.
French OATs French OATs: tactical Neutral We are neutral. The EU has already warned France for breaching fiscal rules and had its sovereign credit rating downgraded earlier this year. Elevated political uncertainty, persistent budget deficits and a slower pace of structural reforms remain challenges.
Italian BTPs Italian BTPs: tactical Neutral We are neutral. The spread over German bunds looks tight given its budget deficits and debt profile, also prompting a warning from the EU. Other domestic factors remain supportive, with growth holding up relative to the rest of the euro area and Italian households showing solid demand to hold BTPs at higher yields.
UK gilts UK gilts: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. Gilt yields offer attractive income, and we think the Bank of England will cut rates more than the market is pricing given a soft economy.
Swiss government bonds Swiss government bonds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. The Swiss National Bank has been cutting policy rates this year amid reduced inflationary pressure. But it is unlikely to cut rates much further from here.
European inflation-linked bonds Euro area inflation-lined bonds: tactical Neutral We are neutral. We see higher medium-term inflation, but cooling inflation may matter more near term. Short-term breakeven inflation rates fell further after recent inflation data, making euro area inflation-linked bonds less attractive.
European investment grade credit European investment grade credit: tactical Neutral We are neutral European investment grade credit, with a preference for short- to medium-term paper for quality income. We maintain our regional preference for European investment grade over the US given spreads are not as tight.
European high yield European high yield: tactical Overweight +1 We are overweight. We find the income potential attractive. We still prefer European high yield given its more appealing valuations, higher quality and lower duration than in the US Spreads compensate for risks of a potential pick-up in defaults, in our view.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, November 2024. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.

Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Christian Olinger
Christian Olinger
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Devan Nathwani
Devan Nathwani
Portfolio Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute

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