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Changes in global demographics will bring significant challenges and opportunities for societies and businesses. The forces that underpin this megatrend include ageing populations in advanced economies and China, the outlook for future jobs, immigration pressure, skills imbalance and the radically different priorities of younger generations.
Learn more about the megatrends shaping our future of economies, business and society.
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested.
Most advanced economies are ageing rapidly
Italy and Germany lead the way in Europe, with the median age of their populations at 47.9 and 46.6 years (only behind Japan at 48.2).1 In Western Europe, 1 in 5 people are older than 65 and this is expected to rise to 1 in 4 in the next decade.2 These trends are likely to slowly, but steadily change the outlook for household spending (towards older consumers), inflation rates, economic growth and government policy (the US already spends over 18% of GDP on healthcare).3 Ageing and the resulting decline in the labour force will hence require dramatic social and technological changes.
Japan's ageing problem
Consider the case of Japan; the combination of ageing (about one-third of its population is over 65yrs4) and low immigration has led to very tight labour markets; the jobs-to-applicant ratio in Japan stands at 1.63x, the highest level in 17 years.5 A counter to this has been more Japanese women entering the workforce; between 2000-17, female workforce participation rose from <60% to 69.4%.6 At the same time, Japan has been one of the largest buyers (and makers) of robotics; it employs 308 robots for every 10,000 human workers compared to 200 for the US.7
Sources: 1 United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2018 Revision. 2 United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2018 Revision. 3 OECD, 2018. 4 Japan Welfare Ministry, Sep 2018. 5 The Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training, 2019. 6 OECD, 2018. 7 International Federation of Robotics, World Robotics Report 2018.
Female labour participation rate
Source: OECD, 2018.
Automation a solution or a problem?
Smarter machines are a solution for countries with shrinking labour forces; but they are likely to trigger challenges for younger economies, by disrupting jobs and limiting wage growth. Automation and greater use of tech will require tomorrow’s workforce to develop new and more advanced skills; take the case of the UK, where less than 20% of the population had a university degree in 1990, but in 2000 that rose to 33% and reached 42% in 2017.8 As the competition for highly skilled labour heats up, companies will need to spend more resources to attract, train and retain talent.
Source: 8 Attracting and retaining the right talent, McKinsey - Nov 2017.
What are the investment opportunities?
As economies age, healthcare is likely to become a bigger share of household and government spending. We expect firms that address age-related diseases to benefit, along with innovative companies that provide technologies and new solutions to provide better care at lower costs.
Shifts in consumer spending
Secondly, demographics will be a key driver of structural shifts in consumer spending. For example, people over 60 account for about half of all household spending in Japan versus approximately 13% for people under 40.9 As spending power shifts to older households in western economies, companies seeking growth will need to cater to their unique demands.
On the other hand, younger consumers are growing up with distinctly different spending priorities versus their parents and grandparents. This will be reflected in what they eat (healthier, fresher) and how they spend time (streaming, gaming) to how they save money (sharing, low cost travel) and how they invest (sustainability).
Source: 9 Japan National Statistics, Dec 2018.
Investing in demographics and social change with BlackRock & iShares
Our range of thematic funds offer a way for investors to tap into megatrends, which we believe gives investors exposure to companies with structurally higher earnings growth, which in-turn could drive stronger investment returns over the longer term.
Connect megatrends to investment themes
Click on 1 or more megatrends to see the related themes and funds
Technological
breakthrough ?
breakthrough ?
Demographics
& social change ?
& social change ?
Rapid
urbanisation ?
urbanisation ?
Climate change &
resource scarcity ?
resource scarcity ?
Emerging
global wealth ?
global wealth ?
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Fintech View fund
Future of
Transport
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Next Generation
Technology
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Nutrition View fund
Sustainable
Energy
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Circular
Economy
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iShares funds (index)
Ageing
Population
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Agribusiness View fund
Automation
& Robotics
View fund
Digitalisation View fund
Digital
Security
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Electric Vehicles & Driving Technology View fund
EM Consumer
Growth
View fund
Global Clean
Energy
View fund
Global Timber & Forestry View fund
Global Water View fund
Healthcare
Innovation
View fund
Inclusion &
Diversity
View fund
Technological breakthrough
New technologies lie at the heart of resolving or accelerating the five megatrends. Breakthrough innovation is necessary to address large-scale challenges (e.g. ageing economies, climate change), while new solutions are also targeting relatively minor problems (e.g. payments, streaming). This backdrop has created a fertile ground for disruptive innovation and Thematic investing.
Demographics and social change
Changes in global demographics will bring significant challenges and opportunities for societies and businesses. The forces that underpin this megatrend include ageing populations in advanced economies and China, the outlook for future jobs, immigration pressure, skills imbalance and the radically different priorities of younger generations.
Rapid urbanisation
Cities have always been hubs for talent, capital and innovation. In the last decade, hundreds of large cities have been built in emerging economies, attracting significant infrastructure investments. Large cities such as San Francisco, London, Paris and New York have also been the ideal launch pads for entrepreneurs given their large, dense populations. Understanding the advantages and challenges of future cities can help us identify the next sources of growth.
Climate change and resource scarcity
An expanding population and the rising demand for food, energy and materials continue to strain the finite resources of the planet. The need for solutions that improve energy efficiency, lower food waste and provide alternatives to scarce resources has never been greater. Underlying these trends is the persistent increase in global emissions which has led to intensifying debates around climate change and how we can resolve it.
Emerging global wealth
In the last twenty years, developing economies have been lifted by the rising tide of globalisation and manufacturing shifting to Asia. The emergence of a sizeable, aspirational middle class, particularly in China, has made it an important destination for global companies. We continue to expect emerging markets to offer significant growth potential for domestic and multinational firms.
Ways to invest in megatrends with BlackRock and iShares
Use our simple tool to see how our five megatrends connect to investment themes and funds.
Thematic investing with BlackRock & iShares
Learn more about thematic investing and why we believe in investing in the long-term trends transforming the way we live and work.
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