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Our take on the US tariff pause
Market take
Weekly video_20250414
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
Three points on how I'm thinking about markets right now.
Title slide: Our take on the US tariff pause
1: Establishing guardrails
There's a huge amount of policy uncertainty right now. In fact, it has been impossible to predict policy. We find it more rewarding to establish guardrails, to try to understand what could potentially prompt the [US] administration to potentially change the course of policy making.
It seems to take some account of market volatility, financial risks and pushback from other sources, as well as a country's willingness to engage.
We think that can put a check on its maximal stance, and we also think that eases the risks of a near-term financial accident.
2: Three tariff types
The first type is tariffs on specific sectors to support reshoring of activities. We already had the 25% [tariff] on autos and parts and steel and aluminum. And likely coming up next are semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, copper and lumber. The second type is a bit of a universal 10% to generate revenue for the government that it really needs.
And the third type is country-specific negotiations with countries that have [a] goods surplus with the US, and [it’s] likely intended to provide leverage to try to bring down trade imbalance.
3: Extending our tactical horizon
We have been saying that in the near term, because of policy uncertainty, risk assets are likely going to come under pressure and over the longer term, fundamentals should prevail. And [we] were more positive over the six-to-12-month horizon. After April 2, huge amount of policy uncertainty aside, what really worried us was that there didn't seem to be checks on the maximal policy making stance from the US administration, which made us think that we couldn't really see that much further ahead.
And we shortened the technical investment horizon from 6 to 12 months to three months, putting more emphasis on the near-term hunkering down. And at the time we said that we didn't know how long or how short this period would be. Then fast forward to last week, where my biggest takeaway is that there were tracks, after all, on the maximal policy making stance from the US administration.
And yes, of course, looking ahead, there is going to be so much uncertainty, volatility, policy headlines flying around. But the fact that the checks exist gave us confidence to resume the 6–12-month horizon of tactical investing, where we are more positive.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
Currently we’re modestly positive on US equities, especially after the year-to-date drawdown.
And we're modestly positive on Japanese equities on a currency unhedged basis. We are selectively in favor of sectoral opportunities like banks in Europe. We are underweight in [long-term] US treasuries. They are supposed to behave like safe haven assets, and they really haven't been in this new regime of high debt and inflationary pressure. And in fact, gold has been a better diversifier in this new environment for portfolios.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
US tariff pause
The consideration of some financial risks and costs of tariffs has put a check on the US approach. We extend our tactical horizon to dial up risk-taking.
Market backdrop
Global markets endured extraordinary volatility last week. A spike in long-term US Treasury yields was one factor seeming to drive a change in tactics.
Week ahead
We expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates this week. US tariffs will likely lower growth in Europe, but greater fiscal spending may limit the drag.
The 90-day pause of tariffs on most countries and exemption of key tech imports suggest the US administration is taking some account of financial risks and costs as well as a country’s willingness to engage. It shows there are factors that could put a check on the administration’s maximal tariff stance. As a result, late last week we extended our tactical horizon back to six to 12 months to dial up risk. Yet we still think tariffs can hurt growth and lift inflation, and major uncertainty remains.
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Targeting deficits
Ten largest bilateral US trade deficits, 2024
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute and US Census Bureau, with data from Haver Analytics, April 2025. Note: The chart shows the ten largest trade deficits – the difference between US goods imports and exports with a country – in 2024. The trade deficit for the European Union (EU) is the sum of the trade deficits across all EU members.
The US has paused country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs on all nations, except China, for 90 days and exempted some key tech imports. These tariffs are intended to create negotiating leverage on countries with which the US runs goods trade deficits – and reduce imbalances. See the chart. Even with the pause, the US average effective tariff rate is still around 20%, including 145% tariffs on select Chinese imports. We see US tariffs adding to inflation. Prolonged uncertainty raises the risk of recession. It may drag on corporate investment and delay longer-term commitments. Consumer spending could be hurt by any erosion of wealth and real incomes. Dented confidence in the US could curb foreign investor appetite for US assets. Trade tensions with China are set to deepen. We see tariffs lowering growth in China, and potential policy stimulus only partly offsetting that drag.
Along with country-specific tariffs, we see two other primary types of US tariffs. First, tariffs on strategic sectors to support reshoring of activity. Second, a universal 10% tariff on most imports to generate revenue and aid domestic production. Even with last week’s pause – and subsequent exemption of some key tech imports such as smartphones – the US is still facing much higher tariffs than we expected a few weeks ago. With uncertainty around where tariffs will land and unpredictable negotiations ahead, we aim to understand the factors that can prompt the administration to change course on policy. It appears to be taking some account of market volatility, financial risks and other sources of pushback, as well as a country’s willingness to engage. That is putting a check on its maximal stance and could bind policy changes.
Checks on policy emerge
The implications? The near-term risk of a financial accident has eased. We cautiously leaned back into risk late last week by extending our tactical horizon back to six to 12 months from three months. We also renewed our overweight to US and Japanese stocks. US equities are supported by the AI theme, resilient corporate earnings and a so far solid economy. We see Japanese stocks still benefiting from stronger corporate profits and shareholder-friendly reforms. We recently upped Europe’s stocks to neutral but focus on selective opportunities while looking for more progress on structural challenges.
Yet we expect ongoing risk asset volatility and potentially sharp reversals. Spiking yields in long-term US Treasuries seemed to be a factor in the change in tariff tactics. We stay underweight long-term Treasuries, our highest conviction view: tariffs are likely to add to already sticky inflation, and congressional budget plans last week reinforce the outlook for persistent budget deficits. We favor gold instead as a portfolio diversifier. The broad-based equity selloff has created opportunities to tap into certain sectors, and selectivity is key. We still like US technology benefitting from the AI buildout and adoption. We also favor global banks. That includes US banks given the scope for deregulation even with some potential economic pain. We also like banks in Europe (higher rates versus pre-pandemic levels) and Japan (stronger loan growth).
Our bottom line
The US paused most “reciprocal” tariffs even as US-China trade tensions look set to deepen. Checks on policy allowed us to extend our tactical horizon back to six to 12 months and resume our positive view on US and Japanese stocks.
Market backdrop
Markets have endured extraordinary volatility due to uncertainty over US tariffs. The S&P 500 rebounded nearly 6% last week, with one of its largest daily jumps in its history after the pause on “reciprocal” tariffs. But the index remains 13% below its February record high. The US dollar tumbled to three-year lows against major currencies even as both 10- and 30-year US Treasury yields spiked about 50 basis points to 4.50% and 4.90% – on track for their largest weekly rise in four decades.
We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates at its policy meeting this week. What seemed to be a toss up between a cut and a hold before the announcement of additional US tariffs on April 2 will most likely be a cut, as sweeping tariffs risk pushing the bloc towards recession. We expect tariffs to lower growth in Europe, yet greater fiscal spending could limit the drag from tariffs.
Week ahead
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of April 10, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
April 15
UK unemployment
April 16
UK CPI
April 17
ECB policy decision
April 18
Japan CPI
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Meet the authors
Jean Boivin
Head – BlackRock Investment Institute
Wei Li
Global Chief Investment Strategist – BlackRock Investment Institute
Glenn Purves
Global Head of Macro – BlackRock Investment Institute
Catherine Kress
Head of Geopolitical Research – BlackRock Investment Institute
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.