themes
2023 Global Insurance Themes

A new investment playbook

The Great Moderation that supported bull markets in stock and bonds for decades is now over. In the new market regime, we expect to continue seeing sustained levels of inflation while experiencing higher levels of volatility. For BlackRock’s 2023 Global Insurance Themes, we identified five themes that we see reshaping the insurance industry.

A new regime

01

Geopolitics

Persistent geopolitical tension is rewiring supply chains and amplifying inflationary pressures globally. As resources are reallocated, we could see additional demand mismatches, more local sourcing, and more market fragmentation.

02

Inflation

Inflationary pressures are likely to persist despite moderating recently. A higher inflationary environment challenges insurers’ profitability and impacts their assets and liabilities.

03

Fiscal policy

Fiscal policy has turned into a meaningful headwind while global growth decelerates. Active fiscal policy propelled the global economy through the pandemic, but this support has been largely withdrawn across most major economies.

Introduction

The Great Moderation, the four-decade period of largely stable activity and inflation, is behind us. Production constraints are fueling inflation and macro volatility. Central banks are on course to overtighten policy as they try to tame inflation. The new regime of greater macro and market volatility is challenging insurers’ investment strategies. Insurers need a new investment playbook which calls for them to be more flexible and discerning in their portfolio strategies.

What this means for insurers’ portfolios

With idiosyncratic risks rising, more granular research will be required on individual sectors, regions, and sub-asset classes. Implementing portfolio decisions via broad exposures may not be the best approach for insurers in the new regime.

While insurers need to be more dynamic and nuanced in their investment approach, many will be constrained by an ability to realize investment losses. This will require careful analysis of breakeven periods and loss budgeting.

2023 Global Insurance Themes

We have identified five themes that are reshaping the global insurance industry in 2023:

  • Theme 1: The return of value in public fixed income presents the most attractive entry point for insurance investors in a decade
  • Theme 2: Private markets offer insurers compelling opportunities as select asset classes have proven resilient through economic cycles and offer downside protection
  • Theme 3: The global transition to net zero introduces unique infrastructure investment opportunities for insurers
  • Theme 4: Global regulatory changes have potential to reshape investment strategy and asset allocations
  • Theme 5: Insurers continue to face competitive pressure from new entrants despite the arrival of higher public fixed income yields