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Market take
Weekly video_20250324
Axel Christensen
Chief Investment Strategist for Latin America, BlackRock Investment Institute
Opening frame: What’s driving markets? Market take
Camera frame
The pullback in US equities has put a dent in US outperformance versus the rest of the world. Developments in other countries are boosting the appeal of global stocks.
Title slide: Bright spots in global stocks
1: The fiscal boost in Europe
Steps by Germany and the European Union to boost defense and infrastructure spending could help sustain the European equity rally.
That could benefit sectors like aerospace, defense and industrials. We have preferred the financial sector in Europe, which could see profit margins grow as policy rates look set to stay above pre-pandemic levels.
2: Varied valuations in Asia
In Asia, structural shifts are spurring performance divides. The Hang Seng index of mainland shares, which is full of big China tech companies, has surged this year with the release of seemingly more efficient Chinese AI models.
China’s tech surge has enticed investors to pull away from India – causing Indian equity valuations to slide.
3: Bright spots in Latin America
Stocks for both Mexico and Chile have outperformed the US so far this year and have seen their currencies strengthen against the dollar.
For Mexico, that’s due to the US tariff impact being less severe than expected so far.
Outro: Here’s our Market take
We stay overweight US stocks and also see country-level shifts creating opportunities elsewhere.
Yet prolonged uncertainty poses a risk to both US and global risk assets.
Closing frame: Read details: blackrock.com/weekly-commentary
The US equity pullback has narrowed the performance gap with the rest of the world. We see bright spots in global markets benefiting from structural shifts.
US stocks steadied after a four-week losing streak last week. Global stocks rose, with Japan the standout. US 10-year Treasury yields ticked down to 4.25%.
Global PMI data could indicate any damage from US policy uncertainty. We expect US PCE data to keep showing that inflation is likely to settle above 2%.
The US equity pullback has put a dent in US outperformance over the rest of the world. We stay overweight US stocks and see opportunities across global stocks. Europe’s fiscal boost may benefit some sectors. In Asia, corporate reforms have lifted Japanese stocks, while some Latin American countries tap into mega forces. Stronger currencies may boost the appeal of emerging local currency debt. Yet we think prolonged US policy uncertainty could dim some of these bright spots.
Non-US equity market share of global market capitalisation, 2015-2025
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest in an index. Indexes are unmanaged and performance does not account for fees. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream, March 2025. Note: The chart shows the market value of the MSCI All-Country World excluding the US index as a share of the MSCI All-Country World index.
The weight of non-US equities in global equity indexes has been on the rise since the end of January. See the chart. What’s driving that? In the near term, policy uncertainty has shaken investor conviction in US growth and equity strength. That’s pulled the S&P 500 down more than 3%. The selloff has been exacerbated by investors rapidly pulling out of popular trades – like the tech-heavy momentum equity style factor and cyclical trades that were betting on a boost from growth from potential US deregulation and tax cuts. Meanwhile, country-specific developments are boosting the appeal of global stocks, such as Germany’s big fiscal spending, Japan’s corporate reforms and Mexico’s role in rewiring supply chains. We think US stocks can ultimately keep leading as the artificial intelligence (AI) theme broadens. Yet prolonged uncertainty poses a risk to both US and global risk assets.
Germany’s defense and infrastructure spending plans were approved faster and with a greater scope than expected last week, not long after the federal election in February. Europe’s fiscal boost could lift revenues at aerospace and defense companies. Profit margins for the financial sector, our year-long preference, look set to grow as policy rates likely stay above pre-pandemic levels. Capital spending on electrification, energy efficiency and data centers could fuel growth for industrials. We’re selective as it will take time to see fiscal spending filter into the economy given the constraints in quickly boosting defense and infrastructure investment, on top of the limited fiscal room in most of Europe. European equity valuations still look attractive even as the discount versus US stocks has narrowed from the 40% extremes seen last year, LSEG data show.
In Asia, structural shifts are spurring divides even within markets – reinforcing the need to be selective. A flood of apparently more efficient Chinese AI models has driven the Hang Seng index of mainland shares, full of big China tech companies, up 20% this year. That contrasts with the onshore benchmark CSI 300, roughly flat this year, showing how the AI theme in China has been centered in tech as it initially was in the US Japan’s ongoing corporate reforms and mild inflation have driven long-lagging corporate return on equity, or profitability, to four-decade highs, LSEG data show – keeping us overweight stocks.
Latin America offers other bright spots. Mexico’s stocks have jumped nearly 8% year to date as the impact of US tariffs has been less severe than expected. The Bank of Mexico’s cautious rate cuts have also helped stabilise the peso, up 4% against the US dollar this year. While the impact of US policy remains uncertain, Mexico is increasingly an intermediate trading partner between competing economic and geopolitical blocs. Chile’s equities have jumped 12% this year and its currency is up 8% against the dollar – given resilient economic growth and expected private investment in minerals key to the energy transition. More broadly, stronger EM currencies – if sustained – could brighten the appeal of EM debt issued in local currencies. We eye any temporary weakness due to trade uncertainty as an opportunity to upgrade the asset class to neutral.
Country-level shifts and events are creating bright spots in global stocks, so we get selective. We stay overweight US stocks on a six- to 12-month tactical horizon. Yet prolonged uncertainty could hurt both US and global risk assets.
US stocks steadied after a four-week streak of losses. European stocks rose 0.5% last week, while Japan’s Topix was the standout, rising 3.3%. US 10-year Treasury yields fell 6 basis points to 4.25%. We think the slide in US equities was overdone as economic conditions don’t point to recession and corporate earnings hold up. But the longer uncertainty goes on, the more growth may suffer. We eye the “reciprocal” US tariffs due to be announced on or before April 2 – and any fallout.
Global manufacturing and services survey results for March out this week could indicate how uncertainty from US tariff policy is affecting economic sentiment around the world. We expect the US PCE inflation data – the Fed’s preferred metric – to keep suggesting that inflation will settle above the Fed’s 2% target given still-elevated wage gains.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not account for fees. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Sources: BlackRock Investment Institute, with data from LSEG Datastream as of March 20, 2025. Notes: The two ends of the bars show the lowest and highest returns at any point year to date, and the dots represent current year-to-date returns. Emerging market (EM), high yield and global corporate investment grade (IG) returns are denominated in US dollars, and the rest in local currencies. Indexes or prices used are: spot Brent crude, ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), spot gold, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, MSCI Europe Index, LSEG Datastream 10-year benchmark government bond index (US, Germany and Italy), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index, J.P. Morgan EMBI Index, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Corporate Index and MSCI USA Index.
Global flash PMIs
US consumer confidence
US durable goods; UK CPI
US PCE
Read our past weekly commentaries here.
Our highest conviction views on tactical (6-12 month) and strategic (long-term) horizons, March 2025
| Reasons | ||
|---|---|---|
| Tactical | Reasons | |
| US equities | ReasonsPolicy uncertainty may weigh on growth and stocks in the near term. Yet we remain overweight as we see the AI buildout and adoption creating opportunities across sectors and driving equity strength over our tactical horizon. We tap into beneficiaries outside the tech sector. We see valuations for big tech backed by strong earnings, and less lofty valuations for other sectors. | |
| Japanese equities | ReasonsA brighter outlook for Japan’s economy and corporate reforms are driving improved earnings and shareholder returns. Yet the potential drag on earnings from a stronger yen is a risk. | |
| Selective in fixed income | ReasonsPersistent deficits and sticky inflation in the US make us underweight long-term US Treasuries. We also prefer European credit – both investment grade and high yield – over the US on more attractive spreads. | |
| Strategic | Reasons | |
| Infrastructure equity and private credit | ReasonsWe see opportunities in infrastructure equity due to attractive relative valuations and mega forces. We think private credit will earn lending share as banks retreat – and at attractive returns. | |
| Fixed income granularity | ReasonsWe prefer DM government bonds over investment grade credit given tight spreads. Within DM government bonds, we favor short- and medium-term maturities in the US, and UK gilts across maturities. | |
| Equity granularity | ReasonsWe favor emerging over developed markets yet get selective in both. EMs at the cross current of mega forces – like India and Saudi Arabia – offer opportunities. In DM, we like Japan as the return of inflation and corporate reforms brighten the outlook. | |
| Comments | ||
Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective, March 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular funds, strategy or security. | ||
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, March 2025
Our approach is to first determine asset allocations based on our macro outlook – and what’s in the price. The table below reflects this. It leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns. The new regime is not conducive to static exposures to broad asset classes, in our view, but it is creating more space for alpha. For example, the alpha opportunity in highly efficient DM equities markets historically has been low. That’s no longer the case, we think, thanks to greater volatility, macro uncertainty and dispersion of returns. The new regime puts a premium on insights and skill, in our view.
Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, March 2025
| Asset | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AssetEquities | Tactical view | Commentary | ||
| Asset Europe ex UK | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are neutral, preferring the US and Japan. We see room for more European Central Bank rate cuts, supporting an earnings recovery. Rising defense spending, as well as potential fiscal loosening and de-escalation in the Ukraine war are other positives. | ||
| AssetGermany | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are underweight. Valuations and earnings momentum offer modest support compared to peers, especially as ECB rate cuts ease financing conditions. Prolonged uncertainty over the next government, potential tariffs, and fading optimism about China’s stimulus could dampen sentiment. | ||
| AssetFrance | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are underweight. The outcome of France’s parliamentary election and ongoing political uncertainty could weigh on business conditions for French companies. Yet, only a small share of the revenues and operations of major French firms is tied to domestic activity. | ||
| AssetItaly | Tactical view |
CommentaryWe are underweight. Valuations are supportive relative to peers, but past growth and earnings outperformance largely stemmed from significant fiscal stimulus in 2022-2023, which is unlikely to be sustained in the coming years. | ||
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a euro perspective, March 2025. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security. | ||||
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Note: Views are from a US dollar perspective. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast or guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security.