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2025 MIDYEAR INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

Getting a grip on uncertainty

July 1, 2025 | Sharp U.S. policy shifts and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features. Long-term macro anchors are weaker given the many different potential outcomes. Yet immutable economic laws prevent policy from revamping the world overnight.

Investment themes

  • 01

    Investing in the here and now

    Immutable economic laws limit how fast global trade and capital markets can evolve, providing more certainty about the near-term macro outlook than the long term. That keeps us pro risk and overweight U.S. equities.

  • 02

    Taking risk with no macro anchor

    We believe this environment of transformation is better than the prior decade for achieving above-benchmark returns, or alpha. Yet the volatile macro environment injects risk into portfolios that needs to be actively managed or neutralized.

  • 03

    Finding anchors in mega forces

    Even with the loss of long-term macro anchors, we believe mega forces are durable return drivers. Yet mega forces don’t map into broad return drivers, and we get granular to track their evolution across and within asset classes. We like the AI theme.

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