Global Investment Outlook
Take a deep dive into our latest views on the Global Outlook
Dec 4, 2024
Read our insights across asset classes, assessing recent events and their potential implications for tactical and strategic allocations.
2025 GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Building the transformation
We are not in a typical business cycle. Mega forces like AI are transforming economies, breaking historical trends. We stay risk-on as we look for transformation beneficiaries – and go further overweight U.S. stocks as the AI theme broadens out. We have more conviction inflation and interest rates will stay above pre-pandemic levels.
Investment themes
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01
Financing the future
Mega forces including AI are transforming economies. We see capital markets – especially private markets – playing a vital role in building of this transformation.
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02
Rethinking investing
This transformation raises questions about how to build portfolios for an ever-changing outlook. We think investors should focus on themes more than broad asset class views, and put more weight on tactical views.
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03
Staying pro-risk
We remain pro-risk and further upgrade U.S. stocks thanks to U.S. corporate strength. But we stay nimble. Key signposts for changing our views include any surge in long-term bond yields or an escalation in trade protectionism.
BlackRock Bottom Line: BlackRock Investment Institute 2025 Global Outlook
Speaker: Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock
Mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and geopolitical fragmentation, are transforming economies. That means investors can no longer view the world in terms of business cycles or temporary deviations around stable long-term trends. Understanding the forces reshaping global economies can help investors identify unique opportunities.
Our three investment themes as we head into 2025 are: financing the future, rethinking investing and staying pro-risk.
BlackRock Investment Institute 2025 Global Outlook
Our first theme is financing the future. Sizable capital will be needed as the rise of AI, the low-carbon transition and other mega forces drive a broad infrastructure buildout. With governments constrained by high public debt, capital markets will play a pivotal role in providing the funding needed. Private markets can offer exposure to broader sources of credit as well as to early-stage growth companies driving AI adoption.
Our second theme is rethinking investing. An ever-changing outlook calls for an ever-evolving portfolio. It calls into question many long-held investing principles, including the idea of a neutral “benchmark” portfolio like the traditional 60/40 portfolio mix of stocks and bonds. As mega forces reshape whole economies, we think investors should focus more on themes and less on broad asset classes. And with a wide range of possible outcomes, investors may wish to reassess portfolios more often.
Our third theme is staying pro-risk. We see the U.S. still standing out versus other developed markets thanks to stronger economic growth and its ability to capitalize on mega forces. We recognize some U.S. equity valuations look expensive but don’t think historical averages are necessarily a good guide amid a transformation.
The bottom line is: Moving into 2025, we think investors could benefit from viewing the world through the lens of transformation. We think being more dynamic with portfolios and getting granular with views will both be essential.
BlackRock Bottom Line
Entering the new year, the BlackRock Investment Institute outlines areas of opportunity as economies are undergoing a transformation. Wei Li, BlackRock’s Global Chief Investment Strategist, shares the three themes of the 2025 Global Outlook.
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