The money we manage belongs to our clients. And to serve them, we work to understand how changes around the world will impact their investment outcomes. BlackRock is able to deliver for our clients during these volatile periods because of the emphasis we place on resilience. We have built both an investment platform and a business strategy that are resilient in the face of uncertainty. And resilience is about much more than withstanding a sudden shock to markets – it also means understanding and addressing long-term structural changes, including what deglobalization, inflation and the energy transition mean for companies, valuations, and our clients’ portfolios.
Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and its subsequent decoupling from the global economy is going to prompt companies and governments worldwide to re-evaluate their dependencies and re-analyze their manufacturing and assembly footprints – something that Covid had already spurred many to start doing.
And while dependence on Russian energy is in the spotlight, companies and governments will also be looking more broadly at their dependencies on other nations. This may lead companies to onshore or nearshore more of their operations, resulting in a faster pull back from some countries. Others – like Mexico, Brazil, the United States, or manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia – could stand to benefit. This decoupling will inevitably create challenges for companies, including higher costs and margin pressures. While companies’ and consumers’ balance sheets are strong today, giving them more of a cushion to weather these difficulties, a large-scale reorientation of supply chains will inherently be inflationary.
Even before the war’s outbreak, the economic effects of the pandemic – including the shift in consumer demand from services to household goods, labor shortages, and supply chain bottlenecks – brought inflation in the US to its highest level in forty years. Across the European Union, Canada, and the UK, inflation is above 5%. Wages have not kept pace, and consumers are feeling the burden as they are confronted by lower real wages, rising energy bills and higher costs at the grocery store checkout. This is especially true for lower-wage workers who spend a higher proportion of their wages on essentials like gas, electricity, and food.
Central banks are weighing difficult decisions about how fast to raise rates. They face a dilemma they haven’t faced in decades, which has been worsened by geopolitical conflict and the resulting energy shocks. Central banks must choose whether to live with higher inflation or slow economic activity and employment to lower inflation quickly.
Finally, a less discussed aspect of the war is its potential impact on accelerating digital currencies. The war will prompt countries to re-evaluate their currency dependencies. Even before the war, several governments were looking to play a more active role in digital currencies and define the regulatory frameworks under which they operate. The US central bank, for example, recently launched a study to examine the potential implications of a US digital dollar. A global digital payment system, thoughtfully designed, can enhance the settlement of international transactions while reducing the risk of money laundering and corruption. Digital currencies can also help bring down costs of cross-border payments, for example when expatriate workers send earnings back to their families. As we see increasing interest from our clients, BlackRock is studying digital currencies, stablecoins and the underlying technologies to understand how they can help us serve our clients.
The effects on the energy market today and what this means for the net zero transition
As companies recalibrate their global supply chains, and as Western allies reduce their dependence on Russian commodities, the energy sector will be meaningfully impacted. Consumers are facing higher energy costs as we saw the price of oil cross $100 a barrel earlier this year for the first time since 2014. As a result, energy security has joined the energy transition as a top global priority.
As I wrote in my letter to CEOs over the past three years, the energy transition can only work if it is fair and just. Importantly, it will not occur overnight or in a straight line. It requires us to shift the energy mix from brown to light brown to light green to green.
In response to the energy shock caused by the war in Ukraine, many countries are looking for new sources of energy. In the US much of the focus is on increasing oil and gas supply, and in Europe and Asia, coal consumption may increase over the next year. This will inevitably slow the world’s progress toward net zero in the near term.
Longer-term, I believe that recent events will actually accelerate the shift toward greener sources of energy in many parts of the world. During the pandemic, we saw how a crisis can act as a catalyst for innovation. Businesses, governments, and scientists came together to develop and deploy vaccines at scale in record time.
We’ve already seen European policy makers promoting investment in renewables as an important component of energy security. Germany, for example, plans to accelerate its use of renewable energy and reach 100% clean power by 2035, 15 years ahead of its previous pre-war target. More than ever, countries that don’t have their own energy sources will need to fund and develop them – which for many will mean investing in wind and solar power.
Higher energy prices will also meaningfully reduce the green premium for clean technologies and enable renewables, EVs and other clean technologies to be much more competitive economically. However, energy prices at this level are also imposing a terrible burden on those people who can least afford it. We will not have a fair and just energy transition if they remain at these levels.
To date, government planning has only focused on supply without addressing demand. We need public policy to take a more holistic and long-term approach to the world’s energy needs. Among other challenges, as demand for renewable sources of energy and use of clean technology increases, we must consider what this means for the underlying commodities on which these green sources of energy and technology depend. We will also need to accelerate infrastructure investments to support greater use of clean energy and technology. For example, as consumer demand for electric vehicles accelerates, the public and private sector will need to work together to build more charging stations to meet demand.
BlackRock remains committed to helping clients navigate the energy transition. This includes continuing to work with hydrocarbon companies who play an essential role in the economy today and will in any successful transition. To ensure the continuity of affordable energy prices during the transition, fossil fuels like natural gas will be important as a transition fuel. BlackRock’s investments – including one late last year – on behalf of our clients in natural gas pipelines in the Middle East are a great example of helping countries go from dark brown to lighter brown as these Gulf nations use less oil for power production and substitute it with a cleaner base fuel like natural gas.
In the transition to net zero we will need to pass through many shades of brown to shades of green. I remain optimistic for the future and continue to believe that our collective actions today can make a meaningful difference in the years to come.
Taking a long-term view in investing in our own business
Turning to BlackRock’s own performance over the past year, it’s important to put it into the context of our overall history. It’s easy to forget that BlackRock is still a relatively young company.