Levels of trust in financial institutions and hope for the future vary greatly country by country. Even in the U.S., where capital markets have been a huge success story over the years, just 58% of Americans are invested in the stock market.7 Americans and others around the world who invested $1,000 in an S&P 500 index tracker 10 years ago and left it alone would have over $3,000 (that same $1,000 in BlackRock stock would have done quite a bit better and be over $4,000).8 For those who put it under the mattress or in an empty coffee can, that $1,000 would be worth even less after inflation. That is the power of investing. Our job at BlackRock includes helping more people benefit from the power of the capital markets by making investing more accessible, affordable, and transparent.
In the same way that the internet enabled streaming to transform the music industry, society needs to transform how people plan for retirement. We need to do that in a way that’s tailored to the unique needs of each local market, culture, and regulatory system. There is no global solution to this crisis. BlackRock is working in many markets around the world to lower barriers to investing by creating choices that make market access frictionless and affordable wherever our clients are.
2023 marks the 30th anniversary of BlackRock pioneering the first target-date fund in the U.S., called LifePath. BlackRock manages $350 billion in LifePath target-date fund assets today, and our retirement business serves approximately 40 million Americans. LifePath Paycheck, a solution we announced in 2020 for the U.S. market, is designed to give access to a lifetime income stream in retirement. Eleven large plan sponsors, representing over $20 billion in target-date assets and over 500,000 participants, have elected to work with BlackRock to implement LifePath Paycheck as the default investment option in their employees’ retirement plans. And this year, BlackRock made a minority investment in Human Interest, which aims to expand access to retirement plans to small- and medium-sized businesses, an under-served segment of the market.
In Germany, we’re offering ETF savings plans through digital distributors like Scalable Capital and Trade Republic, giving investors easier access to the capital markets. In France, we’re partnering with Boursorama to make it easier for banking customers to turn savings into long-term investments. We’re also exploring opportunities in many other markets to provide local investment solutions to help address retirement challenges.
Helping clients navigate and invest in the global energy transition
Investing for the long term requires taking a long-term view of what will impact returns, including demographics, government policy, technological advancements, and the transition to a low carbon economy. In the near term, monetary and fiscal policy will be the major driver of returns. Over the long run, investors also need to consider how the energy transition, among other factors, will impact the economy, asset prices, and investment performance.
For years now, we have viewed climate risk as an investment risk. That’s still the case. Anyone can see the impact of climate change in the natural disasters in California or Florida, in Pakistan, across Europe and Australia, and in many other places around the world. There’s more flooding, more wildfires, and more intense storms. In fact, it’s hard to find a part of our ecology – or our economy – that’s not affected. Finance is not immune to these changes. We’re already seeing rising insurance costs in response to shifting weather patterns.
According to Munich Re, insurers had to cover $120 billion for natural catastrophes in 2022,9 – a once unthinkable figure. This drives up insurance prices and will have a huge impact on homeowners, some of whose homes may simply become unaffordable to insure.
The U.S. housing market could see significant changes if people relocate to areas less affected by changing weather patterns. To prevent an exodus from coastal zones and areas affected by drought and wildfires, some governments have been subsidizing or replacing private insurance. Most flood insurance policies currently providing coverage in Florida are underwritten by the federal government’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP has had to borrow funds from the U.S. Treasury and is currently $20.5 billion in debt.10
The transition to a low-carbon economy is top of mind for many of our clients. Our clients have a range of investment objectives and perspectives. We have clients who want to invest in ways that seek to align with a particular transition path or to accelerate that transition. We have clients who choose not to. We offer choice to help clients reach their investment goals, and we manage their assets consistent with their objectives and guidelines.
Changes to government policy, technology, and consumer preferences will create significant investment opportunities. Some of our clients want to take advantage of opportunities created in areas like infrastructure investments that will benefit both households and economies.
Many of our clients also want access to data to ensure that material sustainability risk factors that could impact long-term asset returns are incorporated into their investment decisions. This is why we partner with other companies and provide insights into how a changing climate and the transition may affect portfolios over the long term. These clients track the transition to lower carbon emissions just as they track any other driver of investment risk. They want our help to understand the likely future paths of carbon emissions, how government policy will impact these paths, and what that means in terms of investment risks and opportunities. It is not the role of an asset manager like BlackRock to engineer a particular outcome in the economy, and we don’t know the ultimate path and timing of the transition. Government policy, technological innovation, and consumer preferences will ultimately determine the pace and scale of decarbonization. Our job is to think through and model different scenarios to understand implications for our clients’ portfolios.
That’s why BlackRock has been so vocal in recent years in advocating for disclosures and asking questions about how companies plan to navigate the energy transition. As minority shareholders, it’s not our place to be telling companies what to do. My letters to CEOs are written with a single goal: to ensure companies are going to generate durable, long-term investment returns for our clients.
At BlackRock we use data and analytics to help our clients understand how the energy transition is evolving and give them choices about how they would like to invest in emerging opportunities. Better data is essential. More than half of the companies in the S&P 500 now voluntarily report Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. I expect that number will continue to rise.11 But as I have said consistently over many years now, it is for governments to make policy and enact legislation, and not for companies, including asset managers, to be the environmental police.
Transition toward lower carbon emissions will reflect the regulatory and legislative choices governments make to balance the need for secure, reliable and affordable energy with orderly decarbonization.
We know that the transition will not be a straight line. Different countries and industries will move at different speeds, and oil and gas will play a vital role in meeting global energy demands through that journey. Many of our clients see the investment opportunities that will come as established energy companies adapt their businesses. They recognize the vital role energy companies will play in ensuring energy security and a successful energy transition.
We are working with energy companies globally that are essential in meeting societies’ energy needs. To ensure the continuity of affordable energy prices during the transition, fossil fuels like natural gas, with steps taken to mitigate methane emissions, will remain important sources of energy for many years ahead. BlackRock is also investing, on behalf of our clients, in responsibly-managed natural gas pipelines. For example, in the Middle East, we invested in one of the largest pipelines for natural gas, which will help the region utilize less oil for power production.
Governments are taking bigger steps to drive a transition toward lower carbon emissions. For example, we see the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. creating significant opportunities for investors to allocate capital to the energy transition. This legislation commits an estimated $369 billion for investment in energy security and climate change mitigation. This is attracting investment into existing and emerging technologies like carbon capture and green hydrogen. We are creating opportunities for clients to participate in infrastructure and technology projects, including the building of carbon capture storage pipelines and technology that turns waste into clean burning natural gas.12 European governments are also developing incentives to support the transition to a net zero economy and drive growth.
Some of the most attractive investment opportunities in the years ahead will be in the transition finance space. Given its importance to our clients, BlackRock’s ambition is to be the leading investor in these opportunities on their behalf.
I wrote last year that the next 1,000 unicorns won’t be search engines or social media companies. Many of them will be sustainable, scalable innovators – startups that help the world decarbonize and make the energy transition affordable for all consumers. I still believe that. For clients who choose, we’re connecting them with these investment opportunities.
Our approach to investing in the transition is the same as our approach across our platform: we provide choice to our clients; we seek the best risk-adjusted returns within the mandate they give us; and we underpin our work with research, data, and analytics.