Jean Boivin

The U.S. election reinforces our expectation for persistent inflation pressures and high-for-longer interest rates. We evolve our strategic views. Learn more.

Market-moving events can highlight structural shifts. The implications of a world shaped by supply were in focus at our 2025 Outlook Forum. Read the takeaways.

Recent data backs our view that the Federal Reserve won’t cut rates as much as markets expect. Read why we think the European Central Bank has more room to cut.

We stay risk-on heading into Q4 due to a favorable near-term macro backdrop. Recently choppy markets show why having an investment anchor is key. Read more.

We see a new wave of investment into the real economy transforming economies and markets.

The Fed is set to cut interest rates for the first time since the pandemic. Yet central banks are not heading for an easy policy stance, in our view. Read more.

We move from a U.S. tech focus with our equity overweight, leaning further into a wider set of winners from the artificial intelligence buildout. Read more.

Investors have started to worry about tech companies spending big on artificial intelligence. We focus on the broader story and stay overweight the AI theme. Read more.

Recent extreme market volatility show the impact of sudden sentiment shifts and sharp position unwinds. We lean into risk and high-conviction ideas. Read more.

More central banks are starting to cut rates, but we think they’ll stay above pre-pandemic norms. We prefer short-term government bonds and credit. Read more.

We see recent market volatility tied to near-term sentiment shifts rather than corporate earnings and macro data. We look through these air pockets. Read more.

We see unprecedented waves of transformation creating an unusually wide range of outcomes. Rather than waiting for clarity, we’re leaning into risk. Learn more.

The world could be undergoing a transformation on par with the Industrial Revolution – thanks to a potential surge in investment in artificial intelligence (AI), the low-carbon transition and a rewiring of global supply chains.

Developed market central banks are starting to cut policy rates. Read why we think they’ll have to keep rates higher for longer, like some emerging markets.

We see a small group of tech winners leading stock gains as a feature of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme – not a flaw. We stay overweight U.S. stocks.

BlackRock investment leaders at our Outlook Forum see a concentrated group of AI winners driving returns over a short-term tactical horizon. Read more.

We stay overweight U.S. stocks ahead of the election yet are cautious on Treasuries given the fiscal outlook. We see positives from global elections. Read more.

Major central banks are gearing up to cut interest rates. Learn why we think cutting cycles for the European Central Bank and its counterparts will be atypical.

Mega forces are creating major infrastructure needs. Learn about the investment opportunities we find today in places where multiple mega forces intersect.

Staying dynamic on a strategic horizon allows us to take advantage of sharp valuation shifts. We go overweight EM stocks and DM government bonds. Read more.

We see diverging monetary policy driving the slide in the yen – for now. A weak yen is unlikely to end the positive momentum in Japanese equities, we think. Read more.

Today’s more volatile macro regime creates greater uncertainty for markets and the Fed. Learn why we eye new data, not Fed signals, to gauge the policy path.

U.S. earnings updates will be key to see if they can keep topping expectations and buoying risk appetite in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Read more.

Working-age populations are declining in major economies. We target well positioned countries and sectors poised to benefit from shifting demand. Read more.

Markets see a positive near-term macro and corporate backdrop for the U.S. and Japan. We eye risks ahead. Read why we stay overweight stocks in both countries.

We see Japanese stocks climbing higher. Read our take on how robust earnings, corporate reforms and a likely cautious Bank of Japan will be key drivers.

We don’t see Q4 earnings challenging upbeat risk appetite even as we see 2024 earnings growth below the consensus. Learn more in our weekly market commentary.

We think stock momentum can run for now as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve readies to cut rates. We go overweight U.S. stocks overall. Read more.

U.S. stocks could run with hopes for inflation to fall to target and sharp rate cuts into 2024. Learn why we expect resurgent inflation to come into view.

Risk assets surged to end 2023 as the Federal Reserve blessed market hopes for rate cuts. That momentum could persist for some time as inflation cools. Read more.

2023 stressed the value of adapting to a new volatile macro regime, and leveraging investment insight and structural forces to find opportunities. Learn how.

The new regime has led to greater dispersion of returns. We think this calls for managing macro risk, being selective and seeking out mispricings. Learn more.

The new regime of greater macro and market volatility has resulted in greater uncertainty and dispersion of returns. We believe an active approach to managing investment portfolios will carry greater rewards as a result.

We turn more positive on short- to medium-term developed market (DM) sovereign bonds in our latest strategic update. We trim DM stocks to neutral. Learn why.

We see volatility as a constant in the new regime. We’re neutral long-term U.S. Treasuries due to more balanced after three years of rising yields. Read more.

Developed market (DM) central banks have signaled high-for-longer policy rates. We stay selective in DM equities and prefer international stocks. Learn why.

We turn tactically neutral long-term Treasuries as markets price high-for-longer policy rates but stay underweight strategically. Read more.

We see markets adjusting to the new regime. This is not a typical business cycle – learn why we think structural mega forces are shaping the outlook now.

Markets are adjusting to the new volatile regime. We see opportunities in the UK and euro area bond repricing, and still prefer Japanese equities. Read more.

Bond yields are surging as the volatile macro regime brings uncertainty over central bank policy and risks ahead. We get granular in bonds and equities.

We see the new regime playing out and a high interest rate world, with stagnant activity and persistent inflation. We shift our tactical views to reflect this outlook.

Market narratives have flip-flopped through the year as the new macro regime plays out. We stay selective amid stagnating activity and volatile inflation.

We up short-term sovereign bonds on attractive yields and downgrade credit in the long run. Read why we stay cautious on long-term bonds.

U.S. corporate earnings have stagnated for a year, but Q2 beat a low bar. Expectations of improving margins look rosy. We stay selective in stocks. Learn why.

Major central banks tightened policy last week, including unexpectedly in Japan. Learn why we see a risk that Japanese bond yields pull global yields higher.

Central banks are set to hike policy rates again. Read why we see them holding tight even as markets expect rate cuts to soon follow due to cooling inflation.

Higher expected corporate earnings mask broad pressure under the surface. Read why we see more earnings pain ahead and look for opportunities within sectors.

Learn why we see different and abundant opportunities in the new regime. We go granular within asset classes, regions and sectors – and harness mega forces.

We are in a new macro regime that provides different but abundant investment opportunities. We get granular in asset classes and harness mega forces: structural shifts like artificial intelligence and the rewiring of globalization that can drive returns.

We are in a new macro regime that provides different but abundant investment opportunities. We get granular in asset classes and harness mega forces: structural shifts like artificial intelligence and the rewiring of globalization that can drive returns.

BlackRock investment leaders at our Outlook Forum agreed the new regime is playing out. They eye assets that price that in. Read more takeaways.

We see market focus returning to higher-for-longer rates and sticky inflation after a U.S. debt ceiling deal. Read why we prefer an up-in-quality portfolio.

We prefer private to public credit long term. It’s the mirror image in equity: We prefer public stocks. Read why.

We think the U.S. debt limit showdown will spark more market volatility. Learn how that reinforces why we stay invested and cautious by going up in quality.

We see bond yields staying high in the new regime – that means income is back as a portfolio driver. Learn how we stay nimble and granular across fixed income.

The joint stock-bond rally this year has put renewed focus on portfolio construction approaches. Read why we think a new macro regime needs a new approach.

We upped our overweight of inflation-linked bonds in March to take advantage of the market pricing lower inflation – our new playbook in action. Learn more.

Financial cracks from rapid rate hikes are emerging. Read why we are underweight equities, downgrade credit and prefer short-term government bonds for income.

Some of the forces weighing on markets last year are now reversing. But we don't think that means recession can be avoided. Read our view.

Markets are waking up to our expectation of more central bank rate hikes as inflation proves sticky. We go overweight U.S. short-term bonds. Learn why.

The Bank of Japan looks set to shift its ultra-loose policy as inflation takes root. Read why we see risks to global yields, risk appetite and Japanese stocks.

We see central banks stumbling into a new phase of the inflation fight. Read what that means for rate hikes and why we like short-term bonds and credit.

Three positive developments to start the year have reinforced our long-term positive view on equities. Yet read why we think market optimism has come too soon.

2022 was marked by historic shocks – war, soaring inflation and a perfect market storm. Read how they shaped our three investment lessons for the new year.

Central banks are trying to crush demand to bring down inflation. We think markets are wrong to expect them to come to the rescue. Learn why in our commentary.

The new regime is playing out. Read why we think that requires a new, dynamic playbook based on views of market risk appetite and pricing of macro damage.

The Great Moderation, the four-decade period of largely stable activity and inflation, is behind us. The new regime of greater macro and market volatility is playing out. That’s why a new investment playbook is needed.

Aging has worsened labor shortages, raising the cost of taming inflation. We see the Fed living with some inflation. Learn what that means for investing.

Surging stocks show that markets believe hopes of a soft landing by the Fed to be true. Learn why we disagree and stay underweight developed market stocks.

BlackRock’s top investment leaders got together at the Outlook Forum. The upshot: The new regime is not about to change, and we need a new playbook. Learn why.

We see central banks on a path to overtighten policy. Their balance sheet reductions up selling pressure on government bonds, so we’re underweight. Read more.

We’re underweight government bonds because yields have room to move higher, and we don’t think they can be a safe haven when recession comes. Read why.

The new regime poses a stark trade-off for central banks: tame inflation or preserve growth. Read why we see them overtightening and learn how we keep risk low.

Many central banks aren’t acknowledging the extent of the recession needed to get inflation quickly down to their targets. Read more for the implications.

We think the energy crisis will spur a recession in Europe. The ECB is trying to fight inflation without recognizing the costs. Learn more in our commentary.

Policymakers are starting to acknowledge the new regime, but they’re ignoring the trade-off between inflation and growth. Read what that means for stocks.

We highlight three behavioral biases likely to trouble investors in this new, volatile market regime. Read our market commentary for tips to overcome them.

Market views of Fed rate hikes have swung. Read why we expect more volatility as long as central banks think they can curb inflation without crushing growth.

The Great Moderation, a period of steady growth and inflation, is over, in our view. Instead, we are braving a new world of heightened macro volatility – and higher risk premia for both bonds and equities.

We’ve downgraded most developed market equities to underweight in the short term, while we lean into credit. Read more in our market commentary.

The transition towards a decarbonized economy is underway. It will involve a massive reallocation of resources, inevitably impacting portfolios.

Growth concerns, inflation and volatility fueled the debate at our Outlook Forum over why we’re entering a new macro and market regime. Read what that means.

We see the Fed on a path to raise rates far enough this year to hurt growth and grind the U.S. activity restart to a halt. Read why in our market commentary.

We think central banks have primed markets to expect too many rate hikes. That keeps us neutral on stocks in the short run. Read more in our market commentary.

We still prefer equities over fixed income on a strategic horizon, but we moderate our stance. Read more in our market commentary.

We downgrade our developed market equities overweight to neutral given three key risks to the economic outlook. Find out more in our market commentary.

We upgrade European government bonds and investment grade credit, and downgrade Chinese assets to reduce risk amid a worsening macro outlook. Learn more.

Wages are rising at the fastest clip since the 1980s. Yet we think wages can rise more without adding to inflation. Learn why in our market commentary.

Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. Read our market commentary.

The West is trying to wean itself off Russian energy in the wake of the tragic war in Ukraine. We see this hurting growth and increasing inflation. Learn more.

The West is weaning itself off Russian energy: a fresh supply shock in a world shaped by supply. What does it mean for the economy and net-zero? Read our view.

The West is weaning itself off Russian energy: a fresh supply shock in a world shaped by supply. What does it mean for the economy and net-zero? Read our view.

The Fed is projecting large and rapid increases in rates to tame inflation. We think this could just be tough talk. Learn why in this week's market commentary.

We see developed market government bonds as ineffective portfolio diversifiers in the current inflationary environment. Learn why, read the weekly commentary.

Markets have been volatile so far this year and geopolitical tensions are top of mind. So, where do we see opportunities? Read the Global weekly commentary.

Markets are pricing in more rate hikes. We see this as too hawkish. What will this mean for the net-zero transition? Read the Global weekly commentary.

The journey to net-zero carbon emissions is unfolding now - and offers extraordinary investment risks and opportunities.

We trim our underweight of U.S. Treasuries. Learn why in the Global weekly commentary.

We’ve entered an era where supply constraints are the driving force of inflation, rather than excess demand. This will likely bring more macro volatility and force policymakers to live with higher inflation.

We believe the historically low sum total of rate hike is key, not the timing. Learn more in the Global weekly commentary.

We are entering a new market regime unlike any in the past half century.

We take away three investing lessons of 2021. Read our take in the Global weekly commentary.

Inflation was a key topic at our 2022 Outlook Forum. Read about the discussions in our Global weekly commentary.

How to finance the net-zero transition in emerging markets.

What does the recent Treasury yield spike mean for investors? Read more in our Global weekly commentary.

The German election has left both the social-democrat SPD and conservative CDU/CSU with a shot at leading a moderate coalition government. Risk assets will likely be reassured that a left-wing alliance appears off the table, but we could see medium-term changes to the country’s fiscal stance, European and foreign policy approach, and climate agenda.

We stay tactically pro-risk amid the broadening economic restart. Read more in our Global weekly commentary.

We stay tactically pro-risk amid the broadening economic restart. Read more in our Global weekly commentary.

What does the latest debt ceiling showdown mean for markets? Read more in our Global weekly commentary.

The ECB's new framework marks another step in the global shift by central banks to adopt new strategies that carve out more policy space – now and in the future.

The U.S. appears to be passing the baton to Europe to lead the global economic restart. Read more in our Global weekly commentary.

We take stock of the latest policy moves in China. Read more in our Global weekly commentary.

How to take advantage of near-term market volatility? Learn more in our Global weekly commentary.

We remain pro-risk despite market volatility amid the powerful restart dynamics. Read more in our Global weekly commentary.

The restart of economic activity is real - and we remain pro-risk as it broadens. The more consequential question: What lies beyond?

The Fed is catching up with the powerful economic restart reality. Read more in our Global weekly commentary.

BlackRock’s senior executives and portfolio managers discuss what’s beyond the restart. Read more in our Global weekly commentary.

The policy revolution has far-reaching implications on our strategic asset views. Read more in the Global weekly commentary.

Why should you look through volatile near-term data and market volatility? Read more in the Global weekly commentary.

Markets are still grappling with the Federal Reserve’s new policy framework. Read more in the Global weekly commentary.

What will happen to inflation after an imminent peak? Read more in the Global weekly commentary.

A powerful economic restart is underway, we stay pro-risk and adjust our tactical views. Read more in the Global weekly commentary.

We lay out three reasons why we see a strong restart ahead – not a typical recovery. Read more in the weekly commentary.

We are incorporating the effects climate change into our return assumptions. Read more in our weekly commentary.

The assumption that low interest rates are here to stay is based on a fragile equilibrium as debt rises sharply.

We share our latest asset view changes, including why we are downgrading government bonds tactically, in the weekly commentary.

The fiscal debate has come into focus as rising debt levels and inflation one day may threaten the low-rate regime. Read our weekly commentary for insights.

The pandemic has accelerated structural trends. Read about what it means for investing in our weekly commentary.

Are equity valuations stretched? We think not. Read about why in our weekly commentary.

What do rising inflation expectations mean? Read our weekly commentary.

Read about investment implications of a bipolar U.S.-China world order.

Read about implications of the Democrats' new slim majority in Congress.

Read about three key lessons we learned from navigating markets in 2020.

We have entered a new investment order. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profound shifts in how economies and societies operate.

Read about how to position strategic portfolios for the new nominal.

Read about the reason behind our pro-risk stance for 2021.

We discuss the implications of Covid vaccines on the 2021 outlook.

We discuss the investment implication of the U.S. election.

The U.S. election result was too early to call on Nov. 4, raising the prospect of a period of uncertainty as vote counting continues . We prefer to look past any volatility and stay with high-conviction positions.

We see a new investment landscape. The impact from Covid-19 will change the course of society, the economy and financial markets for years to come.

Read about the forces driving a higher inflation regime in coming years.

Inflation has persistently undershot central bank targets despite more than a decade of stimulus to revive it. Yet we see three new forces that may lead to a higher inflation regime than many investors are expecting.

Read about how to approach strategic asset allocations in the post-Covid world.

We show how sustainable investing can add real resilience to portfolios by highlighting an underappreciated climate-related risk: water stress.

Read about the key takeaways from our midyear outlook.

The coronavirus shock is accelerating structural trends in inequality, globalization, macro policy and sustainability. This is fundamentally reshaping the investment landscape.

Read about the policy revolution in the weekly commentary.

We believe the virus shock spurs the need for a strategic asset allocation revamp.

We review our stance on euro area peripherals after a surprise German court ruling.

We see a need and opportunity to adjust strategic portfolios in the wake of the pandemic.

Global economic activity is not simply contracting. It is being deliberately frozen. Making sense of the ultimate macro implications for asset prices is about trying to get a grip on the orders of magnitude involved.

Portfolio resilience is top of mind during market turbulence. Our weekly commentary explains how sustainable investing fits in.

We do not see the coronavirus shock sparking a 2008-like crisis. Read why in our weekly commentary.

Market moves have been compounded by oil prices plunging more than 20% as an OPEC pact to stabilize prices unraveled. Read why investors should remain calm.

A decisive, pre-emptive and coordinated policy response to the coronavirus shock is needed to avoid persistent economic damage – and the end of the cycle.

A decisive monetary-fiscal policy action is key to combat the outbreak’s economic fallout. Read more in our weekly commentary.

How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting our outlook on global growth – and asset views? Learn more in our weekly commentary.

Many investors think they need to sacrifice returns when adopting sustainable investing. We disagree – and believe the opposite is true.

The macro debate tends to center on the state of the business cycle and the risk of a recession. We think that this is too narrow a question to ask. We consider a broad range of macro regimes that drive market returns.

Powerful structural trends are testing limits — and threaten to intersect with the near-term outlook and become market drivers.

Why should you read our 2020 Global outlook? We highlight the key takeaways in our weekly commentary.

Expectations that interest rates would gradually rise have been swiftly replaced by worries that interest rates in some regions, such as the euro area and Japan are inching close to their perceived lower bound. The sharp reversal is challenging the role of some government bonds in strategic asset allocations (SAAs). We show why proximity to a perceived lower bound and poor expected returns have worsened the case for holding euro area and Japanese government bonds. On the flipside, the appeal of US Treasuries has risen. We believe the current environment also forces a rethink of the starting point for government bond allocations, and our new CMAs for Chinese assets allow us to include the country’s government bonds. We introduce our CMAs for Chinese equities and government bonds and make a case for above-market cap allocations for them in our investor-specific SAAs that are eligible to hold such assets. We will follow up with a more detailed look into how we think about sizing China in SAAs in an upcoming publication that will be accompanied by an FAQs on our process.

What lies ahead in 2020? Our answer will depend on debates at our outlook forum this week. Read more in our weekly commentary.

The Federal Reserve has signaled the end of its rate cuts for now. What next? Read more in our weekly commentary.

The firm’s senior decision makers debated the midyear market outlook last week in London. We share the gist of our debates.

We share takeaways from a field trip to China amid rising U.S-China rivalry. Read details in our weekly commentary.

The Fed is considering a new policy framework to better steer inflation expectations. We examine the implications.

The Federal Reserve is reviewing its monetary policy strategy amid concerns that the current policy toolkit won’t be powerful enough to counter a future economic downturn. The Fed is considering options to steer inflation expectations that could have important economic and market implications.

We dissect the likely deterioration of corporate profit margins during the late phase of the business cycle, especially in the US, and what it means for equities and credit markets.

We explain why the premium commonly tied to illiquidity may be due to other factors, show how many investors have room for relatively large allocations to private markets depending on risk tolerance and their specific objectives, and outline our new method of estimating private equity returns.

We believe we are still early in the late phase of the US business cycle and that a recession in late 2019 is unlikely.

We introduce a new measure of financial conditions and explain what this means for the growth outlook.

We introduce a new framework for our new capital market assumptions and their use in strategic asset allocation. Incorporating uncertainty and moving away from point return estimates are important steps for building resilient portfolios. We offer a new toolkit that can allow investors to plan for downside scenarios and adjust their asset allocation around individual needs and objectives – including time horizons.

We introduce a new estimate of the short-term neutral rate of interest (r-star) and explain its significance for monetary policy and asset valuations.

We explain why we see elevated trade frictions as the biggest risk to the US-led expansion and spell out how prolonged tensions could damage confidence and risk assets. We also introduce a “nowcast” on global trade growth to track its momentum.

We explore the narrative behind quantitative tightening (QT) and explain why it is crucial to look at financial conditions more broadly – especially the importance of risk appetite and private sector balance sheets in creating credit.

Blending alpha-seeking and index products has become more challenging as the number of indices has increased and factor strategies have emerged to replicate what was previously alpha. We offer a framework that helps investors look past product labels, determine a blend of return sources to meet their individual needs and maximise the efficiency of a portfolio’s risk budget – a priority in a low-return environment.

We refresh our 2018 investment themes against a backdrop of rising economic uncertainty.

We refresh our 2018 investment themes against a backdrop of rising economic uncertainty.

We see greater economic uncertainty ahead: Hefty U.S. fiscal stimulus and the risk of trade wars create a wider array of potential outcomes – both positive and negative.

Downbeat estimates of potential growth may be due for an upgrade just as the stars align for a productivity pickup - helping keep US economic overheating contained.

The robust global economy, led by the US, is approaching full capacity. We dig into the effects of US fiscal stimulus and explain why the global expansion can last at least a few more years – and perhaps longer.