Fund manager commentary
31 January 2025
Comments from the Portfolio Managers
Please note that the commentary below includes historic information in respect of the performance of portfolio investments, index performance data and the Company’s NAV and share performance.
The figures shown relate to past performance. Past Performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.
The Company’s NAV rose +11.5% in January, outperforming the benchmark, MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index, which returned +10.4% on a net basis over the same period. All performance figures are in sterling terms with dividends reinvested.1
Emerging Markets (+1.8%) posted moderate gains in January, but still underperformed Developed Markets which rose +3.6%. Latin America recorded a strong recovery in January at +9.5%, led by Colombia (+21.2%). Chile also performed well, rising by 8.8%.2 In Chile, the pension reform was approved by the Chamber of Deputies with 110 votes in favour and 38 against, thereby bypassing a mixed commission. The proposal now advances to the Constitutional Court for review before it can be enacted into law. Brazil also saw a welcome reversal after a tough 2024, outperforming both Latin America and broader Emerging Markets by posting gains of +12.4% over the month.
At the portfolio level, stock selection in Brazil and an underweight to Peru were the key positive contributors to performance. On the other hand, an overweight to Mexico and an underweight to Colombia hurt.
From a security lens, a collection of domestic Brazilian names did well. The biggest contributor to returns over the month was an overweight to Cyrela, the Brazilian real estate developer. The company rose on the back of strong fourth quarter 2024 operating data that showed a +90% increase in sales year-on-year. Another stock that did well was Azzas 2154, the Brazilian footwear retailer, rising with the Brazilian stock market. Not owning Mexican telecom company América Móvil was also additive, as the stock declined following broker downgrades. An overweight position in EZ Tec, a Brazilian homebuilder, also helped as the stock bounced back following a weak December.
On the flipside, an overweight position in Becle, a Mexican tequila producer, was the largest detractor on the back of disappointing sales volumes in the US and poor fourth quarter 2024 guidance from the company. Our underweight to NU Holdings, a Brazilian digital banking platform provider, was another detractor. While the underweight has been additive to returns over the past months, the stock rebounded somewhat along with the Brazilian market. An overweight to Walmart Mexico also hurt returns in January, as the consumption outlook in Mexico remains lacklustre.
We made few changes to the portfolio in January. In Mexico, we rotated some exposure from Banorte to convenience store operator FEMSA. FEMSA has underperformed, but is a defensive position with a sizeable USD cash position on its balance sheet. We initiated a position in Ero Copper, which is a Canadian copper miner with their main operations in Brazil, reflecting the team's positive view on the commodity. We also exited IRB, the Brazilian reinsurance company, after the stock reached our target price.
Mexico is the largest portfolio overweight as at the end of January. Brazil is our second largest overweight. On the other hand, the largest underweight is Peru. The second largest portfolio underweight is Chile.
Outlook
We remain optimistic about the outlook for Latin America. While 2024 has been a difficult year for the region, we are now entering 2025 with many asset prices trading at attractive levels. Robust growth in the US paired with the election of Donald Trump has catapulted bond yields in the US higher over the recent months, despite the reduction in rates by the US central bank. This has been a headwind for asset prices outside the US. However, as contrarian investors, we always like to ask ourselves the question, how much is already priced in?
We believe the answer to that question is: a lot. In Brazil, many stocks trade on single-digit multiples while paying double-digit dividend yields. For instance, Cyrela, the Brazilian real estate developer and a big holding of ours, trades on 4x price-to-earnings and pays an 11% dividend yield (consensus estimates). 5-year inflation-protected bonds in Brazil now offer a yield north of 7% and two year sovereign bonds have a nominal yield of circa 15%. The Brazilian Real also declined by 23% in 2024, making Brazilian exports much more competitive.
1Source: BlackRock as at 31 January 2025
2Source: MSCI
Source: Unless otherwise stated all data is sourced from BlackRock as at 31 January 2025.
Any opinions or forecasts represent an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and are not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.
This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research, investment advice or a recommendation.
Risk: Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communication is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies.