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Despite continuing uncertainty, we are embracing the structural changes reshaping our world. And private markets are uniquely positioned to benefit from these mega forces: digital disruption and AI, the low-carbon transition, demographic divergence, the future of finance and geopolitical fragmentation. Whether it’s infrastructure’s importance to the transition or the role of real estate in helping societies adapt to demographic change, private capital will be essential.
We believe private markets are sometimes viewed as a single investment option, but as this Outlook shows, they span different sectors, geographies, investment styles, and risk appetites. There is no one type of “private asset” and the key to a successful portfolio is recognizing the differences and choosing the right option for an investor’s needs.
As an asset class, infrastructure is having a moment. Stubbornly high inflation, along with the recent volatility in stock and bond markets, has revealed the inherent strengths of many infrastructure investments.
Long-term structural trends support infrastructure investment in the years and decades ahead. The world is in transition, requiring a reconfigured energy system and investment across all sectors to decarbonize. Digital infrastructure is expanding around the globe, increasing demand for fiber broadband, cell towers and data centers.
Supply chains are also being decoupled and rewired as geopolitical fragmentation accelerates ongoing trends toward onshoring, nearshoring and friend-shoring. This is driving fresh investment in key logistics infrastructure such as railways and ports.
Steady across market cycles
Infrastructure assets have shown resilient income and capital appreciation
Source: BlackRock, 19 September 2023 with data from Bloomberg and EDHEC. Notes: The yellow stacked area shows the breakdown of the EDHEC Infra300 index into income return and capital appreciation. Direct infra is represented by the EDHEC infra 300 index; Global Equities is the MSCI ACWI Global Equities and Fixed Income is BBG Barclays Global Aggregate Index. Infrastructure figures in the graph have been calculated using averages through the year to account for lagging data and valuation figures. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing is subject to risk, including possible loss of money invested. Performance results will vary. Accordingly, performance may be higher or lower than results cited. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only.
Private debt continues to grow and cement its status as a sizable and scalable asset class for a wide range of long-term investors. Totaling more than US$1.6 trillion globally, as of March 20231, it represents roughly 12% of the US$13 trillion alternative investment universe.
The addressable market in private debt has expanded significantly over the past decade, as banks and public lenders have moved away from the middle market. As a result, direct lenders have funded larger deals, and investors now increasingly turn to private debt to access the income opportunities presented by middle-market companies.
In 2024, the higher cost of capital is likely to impact sectors and firms differently, due to their varying degrees of pricing power, business strength, and capital-structure management. This backdrop will be an important driver of dispersion, not disruption, across asset classes, sectors and issuers.
An increasingly essential asset
Private debt now represents 12% of alternative assets under management (unrealized value and dry powder)
Source: 1. Preqin 2. BlackRock, Preqin. As of each calendar year-end. 2023 is as of March 2023 (most recent available). To avoid double counting of available capital and unrealized value, fund of funds and secondaries are excluded.
Private equity is in a period of adjustment amid the new era of higher rates and market uncertainty. We remain positive, however, on the asset class given its historical outperformance during times of market volatility, and signs that near-term opportunities could be attractive for buyers with access to capital. This new era is characterized by some key themes.
Source: 1. Bank of America, S&P LCD Leveraged Buyout Quarterly Review & Pitchbook as of September 2023; figures based on United States leveraged buyouts.
Rising rates, inflationary pressure, economic and geopolitical uncertainty and a correction in the broader public equity markets have driven slower deal activity.
The correction in the public markets is beginning to translate to moderately lower private equity valuations.
Firms are turning their attention to add-on acquisitions and taking advantage of depressed public equity valuations to execute take-private transactions.
Less availability and higher cost of debt has forced private equity buyers to increase equity contributions to complete transactions.
The window of opportunity is opening up for real estate investors.
Globally, valuations are still adjusting down from their 2022 peaks, as a result of higher inflation, interest rates and volatility. This dislocated environment allows investors to purchase high-quality assets at attractive prices, and often below replacement cost. And bid-ask spreads are starting to narrow as investors command higher risk premiums across the board.
Historically, the real estate asset class tends to perform well after periods of dislocation. And we believe this environment of repricing amid steady market fundamentals represents a great opportunity. There are, however, strong headwinds. Transaction volume globally is down 57% year-over-year1, largely due to the higher cost of capital. In the near term, limited financing availability will likely contribute to an environment that’s very different from the low-rate world that followed the global financial crisis.
Dispersion has defined the asset class since mid-2022, when interest rates started to affect the private markets, and will likely be a major investment theme in 2024.
Source: 1. MSCI, as of June 30, 2023 2. MSCI U.K. Quarterly Property Index, NCREIF Index, peak to trough GFC: 1Q2008-1Q2010, 1Q2010 starting for cumulative returns. MSCI, PMA, NCREIF and BlackRock, 3. U.K. data is from the MSCI U.K. Property Monthly Index as of September 2023. U.S. data is from The NCREIF Property Index as of June 30, 2023. The figures relate to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current of future results.
As allocations grow, alternative investments play an increasingly critical role in portfolios. The need for an approach that is scalable, disciplined, integrated, technology-enabled, transparent and based on fiduciary partnership has never been greater.
RISKS
Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and are not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.
Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This material is provided for educational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are subject to change. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be and should not be interpreted as recommendations. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole risk and discretion of the reader. The material was prepared without regard to specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor.
This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, and estimates of yields or returns. No representation is made that any performance presented will be achieved by any BlackRock Funds, or that every assumption made in achieving, calculating or presenting either the forward-looking information or any historical performance information herein has been considered or stated in preparing this material. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the investment returns that are presented herein. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.
Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.
The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy.
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In Colombia, the sale of each fund discussed herein, if any, is addressed to less than one hundred specifically identified investors, and such fund may not be promoted or marketed in Colombia or to Colombian residents unless such promotion and marketing is made in compliance with Decree 2555 of 2010 and other applicable rules and regulations related to the promotion of foreign financial and/or securities related products or services in Colombia. With the receipt of these materials, and unless the Client contacts BlackRock with additional requests for information, the Client agrees to have been provided the information for due advisory required by the marketing and promotion regulatory regime applicable in Colombia.
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This information does not consider the investment objectives, risk tolerance or the financial circumstances of any specific investor. This information does not replace the obligation of financial advisor to apply his/her best judgment in making investment decisions or investment recommendations. It is your responsibility to inform yourself of, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of Mexico. If any funds, securities or investment strategies are mentioned or inferred in this material, such funds, securities or strategies have not been registered with the Mexican National Banking and Securities Commission (Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores, the “CNBV”) and thus, may not be publicly offered in Mexico. The CNBV has not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services (“Investment Services”) is a regulated activity in Mexico, subject to strict rules, and performed under the supervision of the CNBV. The materials that may be shared in this forum are for information purposes only, do not constitute investment advice, and are being shared in the understanding that the addressee is an Institutional or Qualified investor as defined under Mexican Law. BlackRock México Operadora, S.A. de C.V., Sociedad Operadora de Fondos de Inversión (“BlackRock México Operadora”) is a Mexican subsidiary of BlackRock, Inc., authorized by the CNBV as a Mutual Fund Manager (Operadora de Fondos), and as such, authorized to manage Mexican mutual funds, ETFs and provide Investment Advisory Services.
For more information on the Investment Services offered by BlackRock Mexico, please review our Investment Services Guide available in www.blackrock.com/mx. This material represents an assessment at a specific time and its information should not be relied upon by the you as research or investment advice regarding the funds, any security or investment strategy in particular. Reliance upon information in this material is at your sole discretion. BlackRock México is not authorized to receive deposits, carry out intermediation activities, or act as a broker dealer, or bank in Mexico.
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Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy.
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This material provides general information only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should therefore assess whether the material is appropriate for you and obtain financial advice tailored to you having regard to your individual objectives, financial situation, needs and circumstances. Refer to BIMAL’s Financial Services Guide on its website for more information. This material is not a financial product recommendation or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial product in any jurisdiction.
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